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I think the DOW will hit 19,125 by Thanksgiving. We will see.

2% growth just doesn't support those numbers IMO. Stocks are expensive, when this bubble blows it's going to be a bloodbath. I'm not saying it won't go higher, but foreword guidance isn't looking great. Lots of very rich rich folks going to cash. Real estate is also getting expensive, I think the top is near. Might be a good time to start buying some gold, because when it pops the federal reserve is going to be printing money in overdrive.

Rubbish. I have been reading such here for many years all the while making money doing nothing.

Hey , does anyone know how to find how much a dividend is going to be on a mutual fund? I have PRBLX and am a bit concerned about a big Dividend cause I have a bunch in my taxable account. Where can I find this info? Thanks in advance , Ihookem,

Hey hookem,
The most reliable way to get the information is to call the Fund Company tomorrow and ask them if they have released the info, if they haven't, just asked them what date they normally let their shareholders know. Just as a reminder, it's not the dividend distribution you want to know about its the capital gains distribution, in particular its the short term capital gain distribution. Short term cap.gains are expensive to harvest.
IMO this year the large cap core funds should not a high cap. gain distribution rate, most likely,not a guarantee.
Hope this is helpful.

Hey thanks Sharecropper. It is nice to get info from someone who I know that knows what he is talking about. So, the short term capital gains are the killer more than the dividends? That makes a lot of sense. They are taxed at a different rate right?

Call the fund in December. They won't have an estimate until then.

Are Equities In General Or Dividend Stocks In Particular Becoming Expensive?

Sep 24 3:01 PM

I would like to share with you a summary of a report issued on
August 31, 2016 by James Paulsen Ph.D from Wells Fargo Capital
Management about equity valuations. The key points highlighted in
this report are the following:

As the U.S. bull market completes its 90th month making it one of
the longest on record and rising by more than 3.2 times or
annualizing at about 17% per annum, investors are understandably
becoming more and more concerned about valuation risk. Indeed, many
traditional valuation benchmarks suggest the stock market has
become highly if not richly priced. For example, based on the
trailing 12-month earnings per share, the current price-earnings
multiple on the S&P 500 Stock Price Index recently rose to 20.4,
almost 30% above its post-war average.

Comparing valuations to historical trendlines

Although traditional valuation parameters may be flashing yellow,
unconventional trend-line analysis suggest the stock market still
looks reasonable if not attractively priced. It is always useful to
consider alternative thoughts and non-consensus approaches in
assessing important investment questions. To this end, examining
the U.S. stock market relative to its historic trends yields
several unconventional insights regarding both overall stock market
potential and also what investment factors (e.g., growth, value,
capitalization, or price momentum) and sectors may lead the rest of
this bull market.



Why use historical trendlines? U.S. stocks have oscillated about a
stable trend since WWII. To the extent this stable trend remains
persistent, it provides another methodology to judge potential risk
and reward in the stock market. Relative to trend, U.S. stocks have
been extraordinarily cheap three times since 1945:

Immediately after WWII.

In the aftermath of the high inflation 1970s.

After the Great 2008 crisis.

Similarly, stocks appeared richly priced throughout the 1960s and
during much of the time between the mid-1990s until the late-2000s.

Today stocks surprisingly appear reasonably-priced or even cheap
relative to post-war trend despite being one of the longest and
strongest bull markets of the post-war era, as shown in Charts 1
and 2 above, the U.S. stock market is still at worst fairly priced
and even cheap relative to its post-war trendline.

Dividend Stocks Cheap relative to Trendline

Based on the historical trendline chart below, dividend stocks
appear to be trading at multi-year low valuations:



Not all High Dividend stocks are cheap

While high dividend stocks in general appear to be cheap, some are
more expensive than others. This is especially true for Utilities
Stocks which seem to be the most expensive dividend stocks:



Therefore the key to successful high-yield investing is to be
positioned into high-yield sectors which are still cheap. This is
one of the main reasons why the "High Dividend Opportunities"
portfolio is underweight utilities stocks which I personally view
that they are too expensive when looking at most valuation metrics.

Conclusions

The following are the conclusions of the Wells Capital Management report:

While the S&P 500 currently sells at a fairly high 20 times trailing
earnings, it also is about 3% below its post-war trendline average.
In both major previous bull market cycles of the post-war era
(during the 1950s-1960s and again in the 1980s-1990s), the S&P 500
Index ultimately peaked out at least 50% above trendline.

The Total U.S. Stock Market Index (a much broader index which
includes all stocks on the NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ exchanges)
currently trades almost 25% below its post-war trendline making it
cheaper than 78% of the time since WWII.

Many portions of the U.S. stock market remain remarkably cheap
relative to trendline including large cap value stocks, small cap
growth stocks, strong price momentum stocks and even high dividend
yield stocks.

Risk-adverse fundamental factors have surprisingly dominated the
stock market so far in this bull market. This is a rather odd
result after a relatively long and strong bull market probably
which reflects the odd "fear-based economic recovery" experienced
since the Great 2008 crisis. Consequently, relative to their
respective historic trends, current valuations favor overweighting
"risk-on factors". What Wells Capital Management means by this is
that stocks which carry more risk are much more undervalued than
conservative stocks. This is also true of High Yield stocks.

The most important thing to note is that the equity markets have
just broken out the upside, something which rarely happens. Our
plan is to remain fully invested to maximize our profits from this
strong up-trend.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Rida Morwa
Research analyst, REITs, energy, Dividend income for retirees

I am a former Investment and Commercial Banker with over 30 years experience in the field. I have been advising both individuals and institutional clients on high-yield investment strategies since 1991. As author of “High Dividend Opportunities”, a premium subscription service at Seeking Alpha, my objective is to bring investors the most profitable and newest high dividend ideas, with special focus on the Energy sector. The service includes an actively managed model Portfolio targeting an overall dividend yield of 6-9% in addition to long-term capital gains. My research aims to maximize returns by identifying undervalued securities in the High Yield space.

In addition to being a Certified Public Accountant CPA from the State of Arizona, I hold a BS Degree from Indiana University, Bloomington, and a Masters degree from Thunderbird School of Global Management (Arizona). I am also a Certified Mortgage Advisor CEMAP, a UK certification. My Research and Articles have been featured on Seeking Alpha, Investing.com, ETFdailynews, and on FXEmpire.

For more information on how to subscribe to “High Dividend Opportunities” and gain exclusive access to the portfolio, live alerts and market commentaries, check the post: Introduction to “High Dividend Opportunities” on my Instablog or just email me at rmorwa.com .

I have put most of my savings in a balanced portfolio of stocks and bonds since 1983.

I was not smart enough to "time" the market.
So I didn't try yo do that. I have done quite well, buying on a regular basis, re balancing once a year, and not trying to chase the next best thing.

Distribution

Dividend History Per Share
Date Amount Reinvestment Price
6/30/16 $0.0856 $37.99
3/31/16 $0.1273 $37.80
12/30/15 $0.4988 $37.38
9/30/15 $0.1167 $38.32

Capital Gains History Per Share
Date Amount Reinvestment Price
11/24/15 $2.7547 $38.35
11/25/14 $0.6746 $40.72
11/22/13 $1.8726 $35.98

That's right hookem, it's one of the most expensive way to make money. The tax rate is much higher than long term gains, and the qualified dividend tax rate (which is the type most large cap core funds pay) is 20-25% in most cases. I really must say though, Mutual Funds are designed as a long term investment type vehicle. And buying and selling based on cap. gain distribution is not advisable to my clients, large or small alike. Why, because I would much rather reinvest the cap gain distribution and accumulate shares over the long term. Why do more shares matter, because all future distributions of any type are paid on a per share basis, so more shares, more distribution. Now we could get in the weeds and discuss how some funds have a higher annual portfolio turn over rate than others, and it's a valid discussion in some cases. But in the limited scope of large cap core funds, most are managed with a annual turn over rate in the 20% range, and that is well within reason.

Thanks Sharecropper, I could just keep the fund. I like the fund except for the .9% expense ratio . I think I might have been better off putting it in the S&P 500 Fidelity fund but I split the money up into the PRBLX and the FUSVX fund. They have returned almost the exact same amount to money. I put half in the PRBLX on FEB,10. 2016. PRBLX did really well during the 08-09 downturn and the same manger is still there. Back in Feb. it was a rational concern we were going to see a big downturn again so I went with that fund cause it was managed well in that time. Also, Sharecropper, do you think managed mutual funds are worth it compared to index funds and ETF's? They seem to have a less tax and most of my money is on taxable accounts.

Having managed my own funds for 30 years, upon retirement a year ago past June, I decided I wanted to semi-retire from managing my funds. Fidelity has always been my vehicle. So I went with a mix of a managed (70%) and non-managed (30%) funds at the beginning of the year with the view of letting it play out for the year then doing an analysis against an indexed package with a similar split of equities (US and foreign) and bonds. I am thinking, when the dust settles, I will go back non-managed with a split of FSTVX, FTIPX and FSITX and leave myself a chunk "play" with.

Slowly in and slowly out ... that's the key.

Time IN the market is way more important than TIMING in the market. No doubt about that.

Folks here have no idea of who I am and that is a very good thing. Trust me or don't trust me; it makes no difference. I've totally guided my own investments for 50+ years with absolutely no managed funds ... ever.

All above is absolutely true.

kd

Financial stocks spark market gains

Sep 30 2016, 16:25 ET |
By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor

All three major indexes tallied their strongest quarterly gains since Q4 2015, with the Nasdaq rallying 9.7%, the S&P rising 3.3% and the Dow adding 2.1%.Today's banking sector rally (+1.4%) did not stop Wells Fargo from posting another loss and a fresh low for the year, capping a 12.5% loss for the month.Energy stocks (+1.3%) rose, outpacing U.S. crude oil, which rose 0.8% to $48.11/bbl.Quarter-end flows resulted in increased participation, as more than 1.2B shares changed hands at the NYSE floor.Today's rally in stocks lured some money out of the Treasury market, sending the 10-year yield higher by 4 bps to 1.60%.

And now financials are down, go figure. . There is no rhyme or reason for the way the market goes. I thought we would be on a decent run today , aftr Fridays gains . Oh well , maybe tuesday.

How long or short term is your view?

My adviser is telling me he thinks we will see the market going sideways for a couple of weeks. He says now is the time to be fully invested in equities because he sees a strong finish in the 4th quarter. He's fully invested and so am I. . .Don't miss it.

In addition to having several years spending cash set aside, I have a taxable account in which I've converted considerable equities into cash and moved other funds into less volatile mutual funds (more conservative). The market has been rather frothy over the past 6 months and I suspect it will correct. Then, I'll move the cash back into equities.