Home Forums Hunting & Shooting Hunter's Campfire A math/hunting problem for the smart kids....

I feel like I need to say up front that I'm not a total-window licker...which probably means I am of course. I have a B.S. from UI, and am considered "reasonably" intelligent by my peers. That may just mean my peers are also dip-chits. I digress however.

I am trying to calculate the odds that my son will pull a particular elk tag in one of Idaho's controlled hunt areas. The situation/numbers are as follows.

- There are 762 applicants for a controlled hunt elk tag, with 125 tags available.

- My son and I put in for the elk tag on a "party hunt" together, which means that if one license gets drawn, then both get drawn. It also means we only get once chance I believe.

- Additionally, Idaho law allows for a parent/grandparent to "gift" a controlled hunt tag to a son/grandson under the age of 16.

- My wife, both my in-laws, and both my parents will also independently put in for the tag. (5 people, with 5 more independent "chances"). It should be assumed any/all would give the tag to my son if their license was drawn.

The IDFG web-site lists the "drawing odds" at 16% for this particular hunt, but I THINK that's a misnomer. I have long believed that meant I personally had a 16% chance at drawing the tag, but I'm now second-guessing that assumption. My question is this...what is the percentage of likelihood that my son will have this tag in his pocket this fall, given the aforementioned parameters?

Bonus points if you can explain it in laymens terms that my dumb-azz can understand, though at this point I'm beginning to believe that might be asking too much.

Dumb in Idaho

Is stacking the deck something you all do there.

The more you put in, the better chance you have!!

Not a math whiz either, but that would be illegal as hell in this state.

Oh well...best you get the cousins and aunts involved as well.

Holy chit it didn't take long for the morality police to show up!

The "gifted" tag exists in part to help entice kids into hunting by "hooking" them early with good hunts. I think it works pretty well, I'm gathering you don't support that notion.

Feel free to make whatever choices you like in your lives gentlemen, but rest assured it's not "illegal" in Idaho.

If you can't help with the math-problem, you're welcome to pound sand with the rest of your thoughts...or you can feel free to expand on your feelings regarding pro-life v. pro-choice....since I didn't ask your thoughts about that either.

50%

I way I think it is-----Your son has 6 chances. 6 divided by 762= ..0078% chance of getting drawn. Then 6 chances out of 761 so on & so on. Then at the end of the draw 6 divided by 638= .009% Long odds--but someone has to get drawn. Bob

FYI-----if a couple of party tags are drawn----odds get even longer as there will be fewer tags to be drawn.

Here in Colorado you are correct for party tags.------Both you & your son get assigned 1 number.
If it comes up you both get a tag----then the total tags would be 123 if you were drawn 1st

If 125 tags are available for 762 people, each person has a chance of 125/762 or .1640 on the first draw, which can be expressed as 16.4%. Remember that if 125 tags were split between 125 people then each would have a chance of 125/125 = 1 which is 100% chance of winning.

Or look at it the other way, 762 people with 125 tags, 762/125 = 6.096, or about 6 people vying for each tag. 100% success divided by 6.096 = 16.40 or again 16.4%.

I suppose there is some algorithm that shows your odds decreasing with each unsuccessful (for you) draw. When the first ticket is drawn, then 124 people are vying for 761 tags, or 124/761 = .1629, then 123/760 = .1618, etc. until there is one tag left for 638 people or 1/638 = .0015.

Not sure how 6 applicants vying for one of 762 tags would be calculated, I left college to join the Army before we got to that part of the class.

762 divided by 125 times 6 = 36.576

Jim I think you divided the wrong way. You have 1 chance in 761. .0013 chance of getting drawn. 761 applications for 125 tags. then it's 1 out of 760. then 1 out of 759. etc

I won't argue that point since I'm not that smart. What the IF&G seems to be saying is that overall 125 people out of 762 will draw a tag, i.e. 16% of applicants will draw a tag.

Your odds of at least 1 tag (or more) are 0.6637. To get the odds of at least 1, first find the odds of getting none. They can be found by calculating the following: (756/765)*(755/764)*(754/763)... This sequence has 125 terms, because thre are 125 tags. Each term in sequence is the odds you do not draw a tax on any given draw. E.g. The first draw there are 765 names in the hat, and 756 of them are not you (since you have 6 names in the hat). Someone (not you) is picked, the second draw now has 764 names, 755 of which are not you. This continues until all 125 tags are drawn. The resulting produce is 0.3363 (rounded) which is the odds you do not draw any tags. The odds you do draw at least 1 (and maybe more) are 1-0.336, which equals 0.6637.

Correct me if needed please. As odds go, like a coin flip, they will work out over many tries, but each single stands on it's own? Anything can happen with one draw?

My friends think I'm a genius too!

Of course these are my friends, so yeah............

Odds are, you and the 6 others that are applying are going to fall in with the other 637 people that aren't going to draw...plan accordingly.

Maybe try "hooking" a kid by taking them every year versus only hunting a top end tag (NOT saying you aren't doing that very thing). IME, most kids couldn't give a chit less if they're shooting a cow, spike, or 6 point for their first few elk. Hell, lets be honest, many adults are the same way. As long as unrealistic expectations and undue pressure is put on a kid to kill a whopper, I have no problem with the tag transfer.

However, these glory tags and tag transfer schemes have a lot more to do with stroking the ego of the parents and less about "hooking" kids.

Took my 12 year old nephew on a 100% draw odds cow hunt that receives very little hunting pressure on a tag he put in for. A quality hunt is more about the experience than the size of the rack, in particular when trying to "hook" kids in the sport. Many times, chasing inches of horn and antler turns into a cluster-shag, for all kinds of reasons, and could have the exact opposite effect on kids.

My nephew was pretty darn happy with how his elk hunt went, very controlled situation, lots of elk, decent weather...perfect shot with his 7-08 at 70 yards. Reasonable pack out, plenty of time to show him how to quarter an elk for packing, just a great experience. He's going to be a life-long elk hunter...no doubt in my mind.



Good luck in the draw...

Are you saying he has a 66% chance of drawing?? Or .66 of 1%

Easy math. The chance you get one or more tags is 100% - (chance you get no tags)

The chance you get no tags is the product of the chance you fail each of the 6 draws. The chance of that is (637/762) for the first one - your son. But once he's failed, the odds change slightly as there are still 125 tags left but only 761 people left. So for your wife the odds are now 636/761 and so on. If she misses too the odds for grandma are now 635/760 and so on. The pattern repeats through all 5 "extra draws". The chance of each individual draw striking out works out to about 83.5%. When you multiply them together you get a 34.0% chance of everyone striking out, or a 66.0% chance of one or more tags being available.

What happens if everyone in your clan gets lucky?

lol, y'all. and at the end of the day we'll know that there are 125 successfully chosen hunters. but will we know who they are? of course not, but the person/people who performed the drawing will.