Home Forums Hunting & Shooting Hunter's Campfire Don't look now but stock market is booming

I thought about loading up on some good dividend stocks last spring when they were cheap but kept waiting for a second dip of a W that never came. I still wouldn't mind holding a decent mix of dividend stocks or a fund that specializes in dividend stocks. Prices seem really high again already but I have no doubt that more inflation is coming.

Bb

What we are seeing here is inflated PE ratios.

PE ratios of always demonstrated a certain modicum of sensibility amongst investors.

Modern PE ratios or like a drunk [bleep] saying I will buy drinks for everyone and their wives and Ex-Wives and everyone they know because I feel good.

There is zero rational thought in any of it. But grab ahold of Amazon's coattails if you feel like it. Myself, I will be knee-deep in hard commodities. What is a hard commodity? Something I can physically hold and watch go up in value.

Funny thing Ed.... many see this as a positive... I do not! never considered my home an investment, for the simple reason in order to profit I would have to sell, then what? be homeless? I guess I could move to Lame Deer....

You mean like 9mm, .45 acp ammo and Glocks?

Lol.

I need to replace the CV axles on my old Toyota truck. Like most of us I would go to RockAuto and I would pick out the best CV axles for my needs. Under normal circumstances RockAuto would have 15 different choices. However currently they are out of stock on 12 of the 15 available CV axles. This is the type of hard commodity that I suggest someone invest in.

Whether it is CV axles you may need year... or a spare set of tires or roof shingles that you plan to install this coming September or a $10,000 capital investment in angle iron if you are a fabricator.

I recommend you make your purchases now before the inflation increases.

Had to run an errand last weekend and stop by Hardee's in the morning for my typical two for $3 bacon egg and cheese biscuits. Been buying these two for $3 biscuits for years. No more. The best I could buy was a single bacon egg and cheese burrito for $3.

That is a 100% increase on a bacon egg and cheese thing.

It is coming, figure out what your needs will be and prepare the best you can.

I took up reloading 5 years ago and have met every need that I will ever possibly have as well as the needs of my children and grandchildren.

Back when primers were $0.02 each as opposed to $0.34 each now.

It's not trying to be a smart-ass at all.

But when the set of tires is $3,000... maybe the dollars you have today will be worth a little bit less?

I watched a case (5000) of CCI 400 primers sell for $1,700 the other day on GunBroker. That is $3,400 per 10k.

Or $0.34 per primer. The world has lost its mind.

And the stock market boys will think they are winning..... use inflation to your advantage... a 3% mortgage for example

It is a dangerous sign when production output is declining but the amount of cash is increasing because this will cause inflation. The production drop is mostly due to Covid but pumping more cash in to chase fewer goods doesn't seem like a great solution.

Once the mortgage rate climbs to 10% there will be massive Global pressure for the American debt to follow suit. The exorbitant overspending of .gov will be between a rock and a hard place. Crushing realities will follow for those in the Democratic Nirvana Zone.

I swear to God I am not trying to be a broken record here... but PLEASE PREPARE NOW.

Brother Cash.... I have been preparing for years... most wont listen

Correct...

Normally I would expect to spend $35 for the average run-of-the-mill CV joint per side.

Once there is a shortage and demand requires that I must pay whatever the market is I could expect $300 CV joints per side.

What will the average Karen mother pay for a gallon of milk and toilet paper when her little Johnny is out of both?

$1,000?

I'll just trade some .45 acp ammo for the tires. Or buy the tires with what I make off the sale of the ammo.

Not trying to be a smart ass, either. But, I haven't been sitting on my thumbs for the last 15 years, myself. Pop learnt me better than that.

Kidding aside, I agree with the hard goods advice.

No offense taken whatsoever and I suspect you and I would be close friends as we lived closer to each other.

Maybe someday we will, until then Circle Your Wagon as I Circle mine. Godspeed

In 1977 FLUKE had a P/E [ price per share of stock / earning per year per share of stock] of 15:1, nearly the highest any stock. The company was growing at 50% per year. We were getting stock options.

The stock market was dead flat from 1967 [I was a child with a social security number for owning stocks] until 1982.

Danaher bought Fluke. Danaher split off Fortive with Fluke. Some of us kept our stock in Danaher.

Today DHR has a p/e ratio of 48:1. The stock is growing fast.


In 1985 my father in law [a college president] was reading stock market logic
https://www.amazon.com/Stock-Market-Logic-Sophisticated-Approach/dp/0793101484

He explained to me how to judge P/E ratios.

He was appalled at how slowly I learned the concepts.

But I eventually got it:

a) High P/E is ok if the company is growing fast.

b) Low P/E is probably a company not growing.

Look out for us dumb guys who know the tricks.

Tesla has a PE ratio of 1700.

Just saying

Our place is going no where. When my youngest was about to get married a year or so ago his bride said some along the lines of "wouldn't it be nice to have a cabin in the woods like your parents". He knew the answer. All three boys know the answer. Appears we will be heading up in a month or so.

I am no expert... but I call 1,700 over-exuberance... on crystal meth, cocaine, heroin and the same crap they give Joe Biden every day to look alert.

I think you are wise.... may be hard to replace in the future..... some things are worth more than profit..... my investments are just that and when the day comes, no problemo liquidating.

Hach (a water quality testing company, among other industrial testing expertise) has a large facility about 3 miles from my house, and I have 2 close friends who work there. They are a good company in our town.

When Danaher acquired Hach, I bought DHR stock at maybe, $8, IIRC? A BUNCH of it. Sold some along the way, but still have probably half of it. Closed at $238 today.