Home Forums Hunting & Shooting Hunter's Campfire Italy's mortality rate so far....

China's population is four times that of USA. If that Epidemiologist is right, shouldn't China be closer to their anticipated 6.4 million dead than they appear to be? I realize that China is anything but honest, but I don't think they could get away with claiming several thousand dead if the number was actually a couple of million plus.
Also, as far as I can find, China's numbers of infected are down substantially.

It's out there, just reported carefully so as not to upset the timing that supports the "curve" hysteria.

The "curve" don't work if the virus was here months before it was supposed ta be.

Like the hockey stick used in AGW "proof".

Been reported the virus was in china in November of 19.

China didn't tell anyone, and of course there's travel between the two countries daily.

The reporting is that China was an ass for not tellin the US about the virus.

So that it could travel to the US.

After the hysteria dies down, it'll finally be admitted that the virus was in the US even earlier than November (just a prognostication).

All this figuring means little unless the conditions in Italy are exactly the same as here. Which they aren't. Except in parts of New York State. capisce?

Do you guys like deep dish or New York style?

AS, Do you really expect US pharmaceuticals can bring an effective vaccine to the street (or local pharmacy) in less than six months? Because, at the outside, this thing will be over within that time frame.

And if they do make vaccine available, someone will have to write legislation to hold the manufacturer harmless for any deaths blamed (accurately or inaccurately) on the vaccine. Legislation which would likely be overturned in the courts during the following years.

Granted, the labs are using tools never before available in this fight and are doing very impressive work. Work I am very grateful for. I sincerely hope a vaccine is available before I, or any on this board for that matter, contract this virus.

And that brings us to the question: How many will refuse the vaccine because it uses "genetic engineering" in development?

https://www.hotnewhiphop.com/corona...aly-will-be-left-to-die-news.106338.html

Coronavirus Victims Over 80 In Italy Will Be Left To Die

Italians aged 80 or older with coronavirus will effectively be turned away by hospitals, should the pandemic in Italy reach a point that this becomes necessary. According to The Telegraph, a document prepared by a crisis management unit in Turin, the capital of the Piedmont region that has been deeply affected, outlines the protocol for determining which patients will be eligible for intensive care if hospital space and resources are at a shortage. The coronavirus continues to spread all over Italy, and the country is preparing for the worst possible scenarios. The document reads: "The growth of the current epidemic makes it likely that a point of imbalance between the clinical needs of patients with COVID-19 and the effective availability of intensive resources will be reached. Should it become impossible to provide all patients with intensive care services, it will be necessary to apply criteria for access to intensive treatment, which depends on the limited resources available."

"The criteria set out guidelines if the situation becomes of such an exceptional nature as to make the therapeutic choices on the individual case dependent on the availability of resources, forcing [hospitals] to focus on those cases in which the cost/benefit ratio is more favorable for clinical treatment," it continues. "The criteria for access to intensive therapy in cases of emergency must include age of less than 80 or a score on the Charlson comorbidity Index [which indicates how many other medical conditions the patient has] of less than 5."
"I never wanted to see such a moment," Luigi Icardi, a councilor for health in Piedmont, admitted. "[The document] will be binding and will establish in the event of saturation of the wards a precedence code for access to intensive care, based on certain parameters such as potential survival." More than 1,000 people in Italy have already died from coronavirus, with the death toll rising daily. Over 15,000 people are infected. "We want to arrive as late as possible at the point where we have to decide who lives and who dies," said Roberto Testi, president of the coranavirus technical-scientific committee for Piedmont. "The criteria relate only to access to intensive care - those who do not get access to intensive care will still receive all the treatment possible. In medicine we sometimes have to make difficult choices but it's important to have a system about how to make them."

I said 1.6 million U.S. COVID-19 deaths won't happen (during this infection season). A vaccine is just one of many mitigation strategies.

As for a vaccine, it's my belief that when the next Flu shot is released, it will include COVID-19, along with the normal annual flu stuff in it.

Perhaps Corona is over by that time, but, it will encourage more people to get their flu shot, not less, and that might be the bigger life safer out of all of this.

The median age of those in bad shape in Italy is 65. Half over and half under. My doc buddy has a buddy he went to med school with who lives in Italy who just put a healthy 20 year old on a respirator.

Milan, Italy has 700 people on ventilators. They would have more if they could. A lot of people who have survived will never fully recover or take many months to do so.

I have been saying this same thing all along. If it isn't correct, I would love someone to prove it HOW it wasn't here.


Clyde

IF it was in Wuhan , it was here as well within a matter of days not months.

As bad as it may be it is my contention that it is nowhere near as bad as the press has decided to make it.

The only number that is remotely accurate is the deaths. That's pretty firm. the number of infected is a wild ass guess. You can't do the math if you don't have the numbers.

Instead of blaming everyone else, you need to control your situation. Frankly, that is the ONLY situation you CAN control.

If I get COVID, I will self quarantine. Never said I wouldn't. But until then, I'm going to live as best I can, avoiding at-risk people where possible. But if at-risk people are irresponsible, there's nothing I can do about that. You all make your choices and accept the outcomes. Life is not fair.

If all the low-risk people who aren't in regular contact with at-risk people get COVID, then the population will build up what vaxxers call the much-vaunted "herd immunity" and we'll never have to worry about COVID-19 again. If people DON'T get it, then we will be at risk of outbreak for a much longer time.

It was here. If you go to the Johns Hopkins website, it will give you a good primer on all this disease vector stuff. Suffice it to say there is NO DOUBT this is a media fueled issue, intent on destroying the President...and the country.

But it is also a serious disease an order of magnitude deadlier than the flu. Why was it not detected sooner? well "patient zero" got it from raw bat meat at a chink open market in one of two smaller cities in China (yeah, those slopes are disgusting). Eventually it made it to Hunan and onto the US, probably via a healthy host who probably didn't know he had it. It is logical to assume that is the way it continued to spread (people thought it was something else0 but eventually, it made it to a high risk individual. We currently have NO IDEA how many people have it, but one thing is clear, entry points in the US is where the disease is more prevalent.

The ONLY Valid statistic we have is the number of deaths, so there is no way to establish a ratio of disease to death OR disease to cure because we have NO CLUE how many people really have it(we do know that an overwhelming number do survive0. Over the course of the next two to three weeks, we will know where we stand (closer to the Italian or Korean model, my guess we will be more or less in the middle and closer to Korea). So while this is not a prelude to "The Walking Dead", it is certainly not to be taken lightly, so the million dollar question is where do we draw the line between the number of dead or economic and social chaos. Thanks to the MEDIA (and the democrats of course), they've driven the narrative to where we are now, irrational fear and that is their goal. Why? because maybe this will defeat the President. I beg to differ.

the guy is clueless

Well, according to the evidence I have seen..............all the experts say..........I have not been shown any......



Jeemeny Christmas!

When the body count reaches a million worldwide then I will get concerned.

Amazing how many buy into the hysteria.....

More dangerous than the virus is everybody's panic like reaction, we are melting down our economy over a few thousand deaths..... really? wtf

And save me the bullshit about the predictions.... same people are trying to convince me of global warming. Remember the hockey stick computer model.... fools , dangerous fools with an agenda

You have never seen me blame anyone. I have only repeated easily observable data and made logical predictions based on that data.

It is in the best interests of this nation to slow the progression of this disease. The cost of inaction will far outweigh the costs of controlling and slowing the rate of infection.

Whether I live or die is of little consequence to any but my wife, children, and grandchildren. But if a million like me die in the next four months, the consequences will be dire to our Republic.

Remember 500 cases 8 days ago, 1000 cases four days ago, close to 5000 cases today, 10,000 in four days, 20,0000 in eight days.

This is the nature of exponential growth.

Again the evidence is easy to see if one is not in denial, unlike global warming bull schitt.

Every where this disease has become established, it has exhibited a doubling rate of about four days.

Simple math proves when it became an infection on US soil.
1000 cases on Mar 11 or so.
500 cases on Mar 7.
250 cases on Mar 3
125 cases on Feb 28
67 cases on Feb 24
33 cases on Feb 20
17 cases on Feb 16
8 cases on Feb 12
4 cases on Feb 8

And we know there were multiple instances of patient 0 on the separate coasts.

Does this not match the recorded history quite closely?

Two weeks ago people were saying it's just 100 cases, no big deal.
Four days ago people were saying it's just 1000 cases, no big deal.
Today you are saying it's less than 5000 cases, no big deal.

When does it become a big deal? 100,000 cases? 1,000,000 cases? 300,000,0000 cases?

My question is how does anyone know[for certain] that it wasn't here on Jan 1 or before?
Are 'positive' test rates due to the fact that testing has slowly been more available[as more are tested I would expect that # to rise].

Actually, I am following the EXACT same protocol as nursing home employees. (Except my behavior is even more conservative, because I'm avoiding the at-risk instead of working with them 8 + hours a day)