Home Forums Hunting & Shooting Hunter's Campfire Italy's mortality rate so far....

Plan for the worst.........hope for the best.

So you took the time to post that nobody knows.

How was that going to advance the discussion?

Unless, you were posting to justify the hysteria, under the theory that since "nobody knows", we have to shut down the US economy?

yes I took the time to post that experts do not have a solid consensus on immunity and how long it will last.

now given that statement.....

give me your expert opinion on how long the immunity shelf life is for this virus and what month it will wain

you didn't have a problem giving your opinion for 1/3 of this thread, so it shouldn't be a problem now.

then you can go back and tell me how I tied any of my statements to what we should or shouldn't do.

You can only reason with reasonable person.....

My opinion has always been that his entire morona crap is bullshit, case you haven't figured it out yet.

And this year's flu season, is gonna be like lotsa other years' flu season.

Hysterical liberals, like you, have tried to destroy the US economy by creating fear about "what might happen", as opined by "experts" that "don't know".

And what you shouldn't do, is post any more bullshit.

hysterical liberals

the ultimate fire insult

hey you know what?

we'll know in about 8 days

I'll be around. You can gloat about being right then

Noted.

If I'm wrong, I'll be on here admittin it.

But I don't think your fellow liberals that's posted here, will accede to your timeline.

They'll try and drag this out til November 2.

Italys deaths within days will exceed the number reported by China. Note in the article, Italian hospitals are taking very very patients over 70. Triage is in play.

From the WSJ
'Every Day You Lose, the Contagion Gets Worse.' Lessons from Italy's Hospital Meltdown.
Marcus Walker, Mark Maremont

BERGAMO—Ambulances here have stopped using sirens. The frequent blaring only adds to local fears. Besides, there are few other vehicles on the road in Italy’s national lockdown.

Most are headed to the Papa Giovanni XXIII Hospital, a large, modern hospital in a prosperous Italian city that has been overwhelmed by the coronavirus disease. There aren’t enough ventilators to intubate all patients with Covid-19 who have severe breathing trouble. The intensive-care unit is taking almost no patients older than 70, doctors said.

A normally disused section of the hospital is filled with the critically ill and the hissing sound of oxygen. Patients lie quietly, with worried or exhausted faces, visible to others in the series of half-open rooms. Each focuses on the struggle to breathe. There are patients with airtight oxygen helmets over their heads, like transparent buckets taped at the neck.

“Some of them would have needed intubation in intensive care,” anesthesiologist Pietro Brambillasca said. The rest ought to be better isolated, he said, where they can’t contaminate anyone.


That is no longer possible. The number of ill has outstripped the hospital’s capacity to provide the best care for all.

The coronavirus is devastating Bergamo and pushing a wealthy region with high-tech health care toward a humanitarian disaster, a warning for the U.S. and other developed countries. The city’s experience shows how even advanced economies and state-of-the-art hospitals must change social behaviors and prepare defenses ahead of a pandemic that is upending the rules.


Some U.S. doctors are trying to understand how the coronavirus defeated all efforts so far to contain it in Lombardy, the Italian region that includes Bergamo and Milan. They seek lessons but don’t have much time, as the pandemic, now coming under control in China, takes off throughout the West.


Maurizio Cereda, an intensive-care doctor and anesthesiologist in Philadelphia, recently circulated a list of lessons from Italy to colleagues. Dr. Cereda, now at the Hospital of the University of Pennsylvania, trained in Milan and has been in close touch with Italian colleagues in Bergamo and elsewhere.

Many of the lessons relate to public health, to avoid overwhelming hospitals. “Mild-to-moderate cases should be managed at home, not in the hospital, and with massive deployment of outreach services and telemedicine,” he wrote. Some therapies could be delivered at home, he said, via mobile clinics.

Another lesson: Italian emergency-medical technicians have experienced a high rate of infection, Dr. Cereda said, spreading the disease as they travel around the community.

He also warned that smaller hospitals “are unprepared to face the inflow of patients” and are likely to collapse. He suggested admitting the sickest patients to bigger facilities and using dedicated ambulances for suspected coronavirus patients to avoid infecting the entire fleet.

Italy’s death toll from the coronavirus hit 2,158 on Monday, up 349 since Sunday. The country is on course to overtake China’s 3,099 deaths within days. Its large elderly population is especially vulnerable to Covid-19, the respiratory disease caused by the coronavirus.

About two-thirds of Italy’s dead, 1,420 people, are in Lombardy, the ground zero of Europe’s epidemic. It is where the virus is all the more deadly because hospitals in the worst-hit towns have reached their limits. Bergamo, in particular, has become Italy’s symbol of an epidemic spinning out of control.

Studying the dire turn of events in Italy has helped U.S. doctors better prepare, said Brendan Carr, Chair of Emergency Medicine for The Mount Sinai Health System, a New York City hospital network.

Dr. Carr said he and other U.S. physicians have had informal calls with Italian doctors in recent weeks. “It’s terrible to hear them talk, but it benefits us to learn from it,” he said. One lesson, he said, is to build capacity for the expected influx of Covid-19 patients before it’s needed. Mount Sinai is clearing out space and creating new ICU beds, he said.

Bergamo shows what happens when things go wrong.

In normal times, the ambulance service at the Papa Giovanni hospital runs like a Swiss clock. Calls to 112, Europe’s equivalent of 911, are answered within 15 to 20 seconds. Ambulances from the hospital’s fleet of more than 200 are dispatched within 60 to 90 seconds. Two helicopters stand by at all times. Patients usually reach an operating room within 30 minutes, said Angelo Giupponi, who runs the emergency response operation: “We are fast, in peacetime.”

Now, people wait an hour on the phone to report heart attacks, Dr. Giupponi said, because all the lines are busy. Each day, his team fields 2,500 calls and brings 1,500 people to the hospital. “That’s not counting those the first responders visit but tell to stay home and call again if their condition worsens,” he said.

Ambulance staff weren’t trained for such a contagious virus. Many have become infected and their ambulances contaminated. A dispatcher died of the disease Saturday. Diego Bianco was in his mid-40s and had no prior illnesses.

“He never met patients. He only answered the phone. That shows you the contamination is everywhere,” a colleague said. Mr. Bianco’s co-workers sat Sunday at the operations center with masks on their faces and fear in their eyes.

The Papa Giovanni XXIII Hospital, a 950-bed complex that opened in 2012, is among the most advanced in Italy. It treats everything from trauma and heart surgery to organ transplants for children.


Click here for complete coronavirus coverage from Microsoft News
More than 400 of the beds are now occupied by confirmed or suspected coronavirus patients. The intensive-care unit has swelled to around 100 patients, most of whom have Covid-19. New cases keep arriving. Three of the hospital’s four top managers are home sick with the virus.

“Until three weeks ago, we did everything for every patient. Now we have to choose which patients to put in intensive care. This is catastrophic,” said anesthesiologist and intensive-care specialist Mirco Nacoti.

Dr. Nacoti worked for Doctors Without Borders in Haiti, Chad, Kurdistan and Ivory Coast, and he is one of the few medics in Bergamo who has seen epidemics. Yet, those were diseases with vaccines, such as measles and rubella.

He estimated that around 60% or more of the population of Bergamo has the coronavirus. “There is an enormous number of asymptomatic people, as well as unknown dead who die in their home and are not tested, not counted,” he said. “The ICU is the tip of an iceberg.”

Hospitals in the U.S. and across Europe must organize in advance, Dr. Nacoti said, and governments need community lockdowns early rather than late.

“An epidemic doesn’t let you proceed by trial and error,” he said. “Every day you lose, the contagion gets worse.”

Bergamo, a city of about 120,000 northeast of Milan, sits at the heart of one of Italy’s wealthiest regions. Companies nearby make San Pellegrino mineral water, luxury yachts, and brakes for Ferrari cars. The city’s hilltop core, a medieval citadel, is normally filled with tourists.

When Bergamo discovered a clutch of coronavirus cases in its outlying towns around Feb. 22, Dr. Giupponi of the Papa Giovanni hospital emailed Lombardy’s regional health authorities. He urged them to empty out some hospitals and use them exclusively for coronavirus cases.

Regional managers at the time were dealing with an outbreak south of Milan. “We haven’t slept for three days and we do not want to read your bulls—t,” Dr. Giupponi recalled their reply.

Since then, Italy’s lockdown has turned Bergamo into a ghost town.

Death notices in the local newspaper, the Bergamo Echo, normally take up just over a page. On Monday, they filled nine pages. “And that’s just the ones that are in the paper,” Dr. Nacoti said.

Doctors taking a break at the Papa Giovanni swap stories of woe, including the call from an elderly-care home reporting suspected virus sufferers who were over 80 years old. The hospital said the elderly residents had to stay put.

“None of us have ever seen such a thing,” trauma surgeon Michele Pisano said. “We’re trained for emergencies, but for earthquakes, not epidemics.” Dr. Pisano has little to do these days: Italy’s lockdown means there are virtually no car crashes, bicycle accidents or broken bones from skiing. He helps out in the coronavirus wards however he can.

In small towns around the province of Bergamo, the pressure on local hospitals is even greater.

Dr. Nacoti helps at a hospital in San Giovanni Bianco, located in the foothills of the Alps. On Sunday evening, the facility had around 70 coronavirus patients. The hospital, which specializes in outpatient surgery, normally has 20 beds.

Recently arrived patients lay on gurneys, filling the emergency room and a corridor while they wait for beds to become free.

Upstairs, more than 50 patients were administered oxygen through helmets or masks. Some were in critical condition, but the hospital has no intensive-care unit and no ventilators.

“We thought seven beds downstairs and seven upstairs would be enough,” senior nurse Fiorella Busi said.

The hospital had planned to send severe cases to Bergamo. “But we got indications that, if patients are over 65 or 70, they won’t get intubated,” said Davide Grataroli, one of the hospital doctors. “So, we’ve chosen to manage them here as best we can.”

That has been the situation for nearly three weeks. The patients know that the lack of intensive-care facilities dooms those not strong enough to survive the disease with limited help. “They accept it with resignation and no complaints,” said Ms. Busi, the nurse.

“The most devastating part is that they are dying alone,” she said. “Families see the patient for the last time at the emergency room. The next time is at the mortuary.”

Such a lonely death is hard to take, the nurse said: “It’s not our culture. We’re very connected here.”

That's odd, how is it China has a handle on it so soon?

Copy and pasted from the Gateway Pundit, kinda blows the doom& gloom predictions up........


It’s been eight weeks since the Diamond Princess cruise ship was grounded for a suspected coronavirus outbreak.

On January 20th, an 80-year-old Hong Kong passenger disembarked the ship and later visited a Hong Kong hospital where he was diagnosed with the coronavirus. On its next voyage the ship was in Japanese waters when 10 passengers tested positive for coronavirus.

The ship was then quarantined and 705 passengers tested positive for coronavirus.

There were 3,711 passengers and crew on the cruise ship.

Six weeks later there are 7 dead.

That means: 1% of those infected died from the virus.

The virus killed 7 of 3,711 passengers and crew about the Diamond Princess.

China has not been forthright about deaths or degree of infection. That is why they are expelling foreign journalists. Chinese citizens are angry with their government over the lies. There have been posts on the fire regarding this.

How about the Diamond princess cruise ship? China isn't controlling the narrative about that.

To better put this in perspective. Quoting from Scientific News

"As of February 20, tests of most of the 3,711 people aboard the Diamond Princess confirmed that 634, or 17 percent, had the virus; 328 of them did not have symptoms at the time of diagnosis. Of those with symptoms, the fatality ratio was 1.9 percent, Russell and colleagues calculate. Of all infected, that ratio was 0.91 percent. Those 70 and older were most vulnerable, with an overall fatality ratio of about 7.3 percent."

This my observations. Of the passengers showing symptoms, dead rate was 1.9%. Many of the passengers who tested positive showed no symptoms. The most vulnerable passengers, 70 an older had a death rate of 7.3%. If all Americans 70 and older were infected by the virus with a fatality rate of 7.3%, the US would have over 2,000,000 deaths.

You’re fücking delusional.

No wonder the millennials are calling it the "boomer remover" boomers best shelter in place and practice hermittude

I’ve kind of kept my mouth shut on this but some people are going to look back on these threads with a lot of regret. Some won’t get that chance. I switched careers a couple years ago in large part because it would be safer for me and better for my family, and it was up until February 28th. I’m on day 17 of quarantine and hope to be done soon. My last 48hr shift prior to that won’t ever be forgotten. I just got off the phone with my best friend who’s seen some serious stuff in the last 14 years and he was shaken by what they are dealing with.

I called my wife the first night and told her things were going to get weird in America and they are. At this point all that’s left to find out is if it stays weird or gets catastrophic. If you think the choices that drs are having to make in Italy are different then are already being made here you might want to think again. King County, Washington, despite being a messed up place politically, has what many, myself included would call exceptional medical system. As in leads the world in cardiac arrest survival, CVA protocols, prehospital standards of care etc. Its getting hammered. Less capable systems are in deep trouble if they don’t stay very lucky.

I would doubt you could find a person who knows me in the real world that would say I’m an alarmist or easily spooked. I’ve seen this crap up close when it’s metastasized inside a facility of those most susceptible to it, horrific. All these restrictive measures grate at me on a personal level, but simply put they have a realistic chance of keeping our medical system from collapsing. Flattening the curve is vital to keeping the healthcare system functioning and keeping as many people alive as possible. Take this crap seriously, what’s coming isn’t cold/flu season as far as potential downside if it gets out of control.

Personally I feel there is zero chance that China’s statistics on Covid19 are even remotely accurate. I’ve spent enough time in Asia to know something this virulent that attacks the respiratory system would have far greater impact. 10 years from now I bet there will be a Amazon/Netflix miniseries along the lines of Chernobyl regarding what the communist regime is doing to suppress the truth.

And combine that with oranges man bad posts and we have a serious issue lmao

Last night Daughter came off a 20 hour overnight shift in the ER at the local Hospital which is the biggest in a county of 750k.

Tonight she says its busier, mostly people who think they have the covid because of a sever cold or flu or some other respiratory illnesses floating around out there.

They have positives onsite in isolation.

They are doing triage on walkins in an outside isolation tent before taking people inside.

Hospital is on lock down except for staff and patients. Unless your loved one is dying your told to go home you ain't getting in.

My wife works in an ER in the mountains of VA. They had an unexplained suspicious death about 10 days ago. Older woman came in after falling. Vital checks and follow on testing showed she had unexplained pneumonia and a high temp. She was dead within 24 hours. No testing at that time or still.

If the want to test somebody now they would have to refer to CDC. They are getting a lot of malingers...non-symptomatic folks complaining of flu like symptoms that test negative for flu. Referred to health department for quarantine. Get two weeks off work and that's what they're after.

What concerns me is that the hospital is doing nothing to protect the people that work there so when the virus hits the area I am very concerned about my wife getting it.

What I'm saying is that over 200,000 people die every year in the U.S. from lung cancer, automobile accident, and influenza and not only don't we panic, we hardly notice/acknowledge the deaths unless they directly impact us, a friend or family member.

If another 200,000 people died from COVID19 before we have a handle on it, it is such a large number that it can't help but to have an impact on the country as a whole, but how much of the impact will be real, lost productivity, and how much will be related to unreasonable fear?

I think that all of the politicians are winging it and because it is an election year they fear that making any move that could give any impression that they are doing less than is necessary will open them up to criticism from the opposition. Politicians don't care about the average citizen, they care about maintaining the power that they have, adding to it any chance they get, and messaging their public image.