Home Forums Hunting & Shooting Hunter's Campfire 100,000-200,000 dead

It's a good thing Eisenhower saw the big picture when he invaded Normandy. Of course he knew there would be casualties, but winning the war was the task at hand. We need to get people back to work and keep their lives meaningful.

Not to disregard the threat, but total isolation is going to cost way more than lives that are lost.

As of today, 04/01/20, the Omaha World Herald newspaper is reporting that projection are for 442 people in Nebraska may die from COVID-19.

In round numbers, 500 death from a population of 1,929,000 people is 0.0259% or 1 death out of every 3,858.

If those ratios are applied to the 330,000,000 U.S. citizens, we could expect around 86,000 deaths from COVID-19.

Since COVID-19 seems to be more deadly for the old and those who have underlying health problems, some subset of that group of 86,000 would die from other causes.

What doesn't kill you can make you stronger if you'er willing to embrace change. But how much are we will to pay in terms of dollars and loss of local control to feel protected by the Federal bureaucracy out of WDC?

I heard people talking about Federalizing healthcare and unemployment insurance, pointing to Germany as a model. So many people seem to expect "The Feds" to have all the answers when they are in trouble, but when they aren't in trouble they want local control and freedom of choice. Can't have it both ways.

Or so it seems to me.

good post

Yes and a HUGE problem is people don't listen to suggestions to start with. I'd like to think that .gov gave out suggestions how to minimize this and basically all the liberals laughed and kept on. They kill themselves literally. When we have socialism and communism they will complain but they will have done it to themselves.

IF they had listened and used sense you could have kept it better than it is all the while keeping things open.

I'm not for big brother at all, OTOH what if they didn't take steps? Numbers of dead would be much higher. Not that a thinning of the population is a bad thing but people just don't take things seriously.

I am one that said this is going to be here a while. Its going to be somewhat worse than the flu. But its not the end of the world and we will get by...

Once again there isn't an easy answer as to many rely on .gov by now.. for EVERYTHING. Including their damn thinking.

Thank you!

I'm not sure exactly what day they were infected. They've been in the hospital for over a week, and I assume it was about a week before that they were infected. I read the average incubation period is 6 days.

They're all in their 70's.

Could that lower rate of

have any relation whatsoever to a lower population density?




Yeah, it's a 2005 map, but it's a good representation of what's still there.

Nebraska sure looks a whole lot less crowded than some other places in the good ol' US of A.

That rate you mentioned just might not hold up in Michigan, Ohio, TN, or FL.

Geno

I don't know if population density is a major factor in the spread of COVID-19.

Wuhan is a city of over 11,000,000 people with a population density of over 1,300 per square KM. The Chinese seem to think the worst of the disease is over for them and if it didn't spread like wildfire through that densely packed city, I don't understand why it would be any worse elsewhere.

That said, I don't know how many people are likely to die from COVID-19 in the U.S.. I can't do anything about it except to stay away from other people as much as possible and clean/disinfect everything from outside that I come into contact with.

I'm not trusting a word the Chinese put out about their issues.

The other factor why it may not have spread quite as badly as it might have, their society ain't the US. Odds are good the Chinese gooberment shut and locked doors on people way sooner than would be socially, and legally, acceptable here.

Just don't catch this stuff yourself, and maybe take what the Omaha news has to say with a big grain of salt.

Stay safe,

Geno

Unfortunately, at the beginning, they were the only data point we had.

The saying that what doesnt kill you will make you stronger gave little solace to frontiersmen bitten buy a snake or rabid dog.

I never saw anyone who wanted to be stronger hope for syphilis or cancer.

That in itself says a whole lot.

Wait until Mexico and south gets to rolling.

Heard Nigeria as now having cases. What a show Africa will be, eh?

Geno

PS, this news reporting on the impact this is having on families not able to visit with loved ones as they're dying reminds me of the stories out of Africa during the Ebola outbreaks. The families don't want to practice social distancing and they continue to spread..................a virus.

The Congo will probably be in trouble.

Gee, ya think?

probably at least one other country also, right?

I bet they're all oversupplied with respirators.


Geno

I don't trust the Chinese either, but if COVID-19 actually has a 2 week incubation period where the infected person doesn't show any symptoms, you would think that a densely packed city like Wuhan would have blown up and that infected people would have traveled throughout China and on to the rest of the World. COVID-19 is a pulmonary disease and since China has a very high rate and number of smokers and serious air pollution, low air quality, so you would think that those factors would make the Chinese more vulnerable than they seem to be.

I don't think that there is enough comprehensive data for anyone to make accurate projections of the final outcome. Too many variables that aren't understood well enough to prioritize.

For example, what has made the virus spread so rapidly through Italy and Spain? Why not the same rapid spread throughout the rest of Europe?

Why aren't all of the 10 most populated countries;.Bangladesh, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Japan, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Russia seeing similar virus spread?

I take anything said or written about COVID-19 with a big grain of salt.

Some people are going to get sick, some portion of the sick will die. The "experts" will study it and may even figure it out given enough time, but it won't be quick enough for the dead.

The interruption of the economy will likely force some under-capitalized businesses to seek bankruptcy protection and that will provide an unforeseen opportunity for businesses will a stronger financial situation to buy their weaker competition at a discounted price. If I'm still around when this is over, I'll look for opportunities to buy discounted properties, that's what real estate investors do.

Bad luck and/or bad choices can be a factor too.

Great questions there, wish I had the real answers. Looking at the numbers this morning on that worldometer site, some things just appear "funny". It's probably just slow reporting.

But, I'm waiting, as "the rest of Europe" doesn't look so strong right now.



Germany: 61,556 active cases 3,936 serious/critical 975 cases per million pop 12 deaths per million

China: 1,863 active cases 429 serious/critical 57 cases per million pop 2 deaths per million

USA 212,605 active cases 5,403 serious/critical 690 cases per million pop 16 deaths per million


Something looks fishy? Well, perhaps not really, as some other nations are reporting pretty low deaths per million too.

Back to the rest of Europe though,could a high proportion of those 4000 critical/serious cases in Germany die? Will that boost their numbers closer to Italy and Spain? Is it cultural, as some here have suggested, the Latin countries being a bit more gregarious perhaps, leading to more contact. Heck, even Switzerland has a 60 death per million figure right now, not as high as Italy (230) or Spain (214) but more than the US and Germany.

I think we're going to see better numbers in just a few days. I just heard the first reports of Lagos, Nigeria having cases yesterday, and their Fall season is just starting, what happens when winter hits below the equator? Maybe it's just ramping up there.

Folks here making a bit of a deal about Sweden not taking any "extraordinary" measures like we are, still running buses etc. Well, here's an interesting number, their deaths per million is sitting at 28. Nearly double the US rate. In other words, we could have 10K or so deaths now instead of the 5365 listed this morning.

Is it worth it in regards to the economic costs we're paying? Not sure about anyone else, but it is to me if I don't die. Then again, I'm retired and not likely to see much loss in income other than the little bit that's still in a stock market acct.

Let's hope today goes better in the death count and new cases department. I have a sneaky suspicion it's just hope though.

Geno

16 deaths per million is 5,280 deaths.

32 deaths per million is 10,560 deaths.

64 deaths per million is 21,120 deaths.

128 deaths per million is 42,240 deaths.

256 deaths per million is 84.480 deaths.

I find those all to be acceptable lose rates if those deaths would allow us to get back to business in a timely manner.

True, the Chinese eat bats and tiger dïcks.

Let hope all the measures we're taking keep it like that then.

Geno