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Originally Posted by Yondering
Originally Posted by denton
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Now load that with a powder measure that varies +/- 0.4gr with Varget (meaning dropped charges span a range of 0.8gr)


Wow. If your powder measure is really that bad, we ought to chip in and treat you to a new one that is at least mediocre.

With Varget, my Lee powder measure has a standard deviation of .11 grains, measured. So 95% of charges will fall between plus and minus .22 grains, and the math works out as shown.

.....


Meh. Do you really think everybody else gets similar results, with every powder out there? You're going to pretend that a guy dispensing 3031 with a Uniflow will get the same results?
Seriously, you miss the forest because of all the trees.


I have several 308s that shoot very well using thrown charges of 3031 whatever the statistics may be.

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I got a pretty good powder measure, some kind of RCBS .Using stick type powder I never trust it. Nothing to do with the powder measure but rather the way the kernals fall into the powder hopper. You can fill the hopper and then bump it a couple time and make the weight change. Not for me, I weight every load with stick powder. Ball powder measure's much better and once I get the thing set I throw 10 loads and weight them. They need to come out real close to ten time's one charge or I don't just throw them. Flake powder is in it's own world. Only reason to weight it is to set the measure! I don't weight handgun loads other than to set the powder measure.

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Do you really think everybody else gets similar results, with every powder out there?


Run the math on your own setup, and argue with that.

Fill your hopper, throw about 50 charges, weigh each, and take the standard deviation. Excel or a calculator will do the math. If your SD is greater than about .1 grain for old style 4831, stop and get yourself a decent measure.

Go to a credible web site like Hodgdon, and find the increase in MV per grain of powder. The formula is (max charge MV - start charge MV)/(max charge weight - min charge weight).

Multiply that result times the SD of your powder measure.

Then add that to your background variation by the sum of squares method shown.

If your background variation is about as assumed, your answer will surely be similar. If you're otherwise getting very small MV SDs, then your answer will be different.

Come back and give us your test results.


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Originally Posted by denton


Assume that you are measuring powder down to 1/10th of a granule, and that variation in bullet weight, neck tension, case capacity, etc. are giving you a standard deviation of 30 FPS. So you switch from measuring down to 1/10th of a granule to using my powder measure. Here are the actual numbers:

223/5.56, Varget. The standard deviation of 30 FPS becomes 31.95 FPS as previously shown.

223/5.56, ball powder. SD of the powder measure is .041 grains. The standard deviation of 30 FPS becomes 30.28 FPS.

308, Varget. The standard deviation of 30 FPS becomes 30.67 FPS.

308, ball powder. The standard deviation of 30 FPS becomes 30.04 FPS.

I've given you all the necessary steps, so you can make the same calculation for other cartridges if you like.



Just to simplify this for me, I’m assuming you’re saying that the things that are in bold and underlined in your post, will have a far greater effect on the velocity ES/SD than throwing charges through a powder measure will.

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That's very close to what I'm trying to say.

The basic idea is that you can fiddle forever with the minor sources of variation, and not make progress. If you have sources of variation in your process that are much larger than the variation in a powder measure, then the effect of variation in the powder measure will be much smaller than most people expect because of the peculiar way that random variation adds.

Early on, I was individually hand weighing charges. Then I took the time to characterize my scale and my powder measure, and have not weighed charges ever since.

With ball powder, the variation of my powder measure is comparable with the variation of my scale (and with stick not much worse). I can trust one as well as I can trust the other. In my system, the powder measure is not the main source of variation, and not what I need to be working on if I want more consistency.

Last edited by denton; 05/03/20.

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Originally Posted by DonFischer
I got a pretty good powder measure, some kind of RCBS .Using stick type powder I never trust it. Nothing to do with the powder measure but rather the way the kernals fall into the powder hopper. You can fill the hopper and then bump it a couple time and make the weight change. Not for me, I weight every load with stick powder. Ball powder measure's much better and once I get the thing set I throw 10 loads and weight them. They need to come out real close to ten time's one charge or I don't just throw them. Flake powder is in it's own world. Only reason to weight it is to set the measure! I don't weight handgun loads other than to set the powder measure.

There is a lot of math being presented by folks probably better at it than me, but I have an observation/question on Don's post above that I'll throw out for thought:
If the issue is that variations (by weight) in the dispensing of powder charges is or may be a problem, I can't see how dispensing ten charges into a single batch, then weighing the whole thing, can in any way give confidence that there are not big variations by weight in each charge thrown. It would seem that this approach would actually mask that problem. If the measure was to vary by +/- two grains on every thrown (an extreme example of course) and you threw 10 charges, you could get a perfect "ten times" the desired target weight when you weighed them all due to the large sample size. If you weighed 20 charges in bulk and divided by 20 your measure would look even more perfect.
I may have misunderstood what Don meant. Maybe this is just how he checks to make sure he has his measure adjusted correctly, before he starts dispensing, in which case I would agree, that's a nice easy way to check it. But it would seem the worst way to check for variation.
Like him, I typically weigh all my stick powder charges (I have the time), but will throw spherical powders straight into the cases when loading a lot of them. I get everything dialed in and have at it. Every tenth charge, I drop it in the pan and check it on the scale, just to make sure nothing has "slipped."

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I weigh ten throws together to get a good estimate of the mean and that's what I designate as the particular load.

I know from testing that my measure doesn't exhibit the wild swings outlined in your extreme example. There isn't going to be a safety issue. So I don't worry about what the charge to charge variation actually is. I let the targets tell me if things are consistent enough.

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Originally Posted by mathman
I weigh ten throws together to get a good estimate of the mean and that's what I designate as the particular load.


Which means you don't know zip about the actual variation.

Sure, you have some loads that shoot great that way. That's not what denton claimed though. "practically all applications" was his wording, and you've claimed similar in the past yourself.

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Originally Posted by denton
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Do you really think everybody else gets similar results, with every powder out there?


Run the math on your own setup, and argue with that.


You need to get out and shoot more, and forget about the math so much. Your theoretical calculations do not reflect reality for all situations.

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Originally Posted by Yondering
Originally Posted by mathman
I weigh ten throws together to get a good estimate of the mean and that's what I designate as the particular load.


Which means you don't know zip about the actual variation.

Sure, you have some loads that shoot great that way. That's not what denton claimed though. "practically all applications" was his wording, and you've claimed similar in the past yourself.


Do you think you're informing me of anything? I know I don't know the actual variation. I said I don't worry about it and let the targets tell the tale.

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You need to get out and shoot more, and forget about the math so much.


Well, that settles it then.


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I weigh and anneal. With lapua brass there are usually 2-6 outliers, then 2 or 3 batches of close weights , like 0.5 grain spread., this is out of 100 brass on average.

The limited (one time) Alpha brass begot 2 groups ,0.5 grain spread and 3 what I consider outliers.

For bullets I take 20 ,weigh them and then divide by 20 for an average (Berger & Lapua). I just bought some Barnes match bullets, 112 grain 6mm. These I will weigh individually as there seems to be looser quality control as concerned with weight.

A good load (OCW) will tolerate small variances in weights and measures.

A finicky load will respond to minor variances.

For shooting groups at distance (1000 yards) I look for a low ES, as one bad round ( an outlier) can double the group size. Especially if the load responds to slight variations.

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I weighed twenty charges using a beam scale this afternoon. Nice reminder of how much I hate that operation. What really chafed was the powder was N135 which meters great, but I wasn't in my usual workshop.

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Originally Posted by denton
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I’d like to hear more about the weighing the powder charges. I probably won’t understand the math, but I’m interested in the effects.


The math isn't very painful.

The basic concept is that variation does not simply add. If you're shooting 6" groups offhand at 50 yards with a perfect rifle, switching to one that does 2" groups at 50 yards (an SKS!!) will NOT make your groups 8". It will make them more like 6.3". If there is one large source of variation in the chain, it will almost completely determine the total variation. That is why fiddling with small sources of variation is pointless. You have to find the big sources if you want to make any progress.

One good measure of variation is standard deviation. The higher your standard deviation, the more spread out your data are (and the higher your "extreme spread" generally will be). Standard deviations add by the square root of the sum of the squares. It sounds forbidding, but it's really not so bad if you work through it step by step.

Take the case of the 5.56/223. In a small case like that, small changes in the powder charge are more important than they are in a large case like the 30-06. So this small cartridge is sort of an "acid test". The changes in larger cartridges will be less important.

With a stick powder like Varget, my powder measure throws charges with a standard deviation of .11 grains. In the 223, near normal loads, a grain of powder is about 100 FPS in MV. So a standard deviation of .11 grains in charge produces .11 x 100 = 11 FPS standard deviation in muzzle velocity.

It's not too hard to get the standard deviation of 5.56/223 handloads down into single digits, but commercial ammunition tends to run at about 30 FPS standard deviation of muzzle velocity.

So for purposes of illustration, assume that a handloader is making 5.56/223 ammunition with a standard deviation of 30 FPS in muzzle velocity. As part of the process, the handloader is using a lab grade scale, and is creating powder charges down to the last 1/10 of a granule of powder, essentially perfect loads.

OK... starting from perfectly measured loads, and a 30 FPS standard deviation in MV, what would be the effect of switching to my Lee Perfect Powder Measure that has a standard deviation of .11 grains?

First, we square the two standard deviations involved:

30^2 = 900

11^2 = 121

Now we add the two squared numbers: 900 + 121 = 1021.

Now we take the square root of the sum of the two squared numbers: square root 1021 = 31.95.

So going from a perfect measurement of powder to my $27 powder measure increases the standard deviation of muzzle velocity from 30 FPS to 31.95 FPS.

QED

I hope you're not sorry you asked!




That is a 6.499% difference. Pretty big when your looking for 1/16th of an inch in score groupings.

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If you weigh, sort, segregate, etc. You have giver yourself a chance of an easy quality control measure by mass of loaded cartridge..

Once you know the average numbers its easy to check for a load that's dangerously out of spec.


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I weigh and sort my brass and anneal every other or every 3rd loading for mid-range loads

For extended LR loads I anneal after every firing... the difference it makes on shot-to-shot consistency at longer ranges where minor variations will show up.

The consistency is easy to see and feel during seating step.

When done correctly annealing restores brass to it's ideal state for the most consistent loads.

The important factor is to be as consistent as possible during each step of the loading process.


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I weigh at least and toss the outliers. I was wearing out 20 pieces of 7-08 Winchester brass. I thought it peculiar that I had one consistently out of the group in that 20 cases. I separated it after it threw the 1 1/4 inch out of the group and weighed it. 6 grains less than the lightest of the rest. The flier always seemed to hit at 2 o'clock.I happily tossed it.


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I weight all my brass twice!


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