Home Forums Hunting & Shooting Hunter's Campfire When Is The Crash Coming?

What is it with people from New Yawk? A farmer says he isn’t employed, and they think he means he doesn’t work. I guess that’s to be expected, since they also think farming is easy and dumb people do it.

Jeff, we're talking liberals here, bro.

NO common sense involved.

I've been waiting for another dip in the market to pick up some more stock. Tuesday was down a bit and I've been waiting a while to buy so I jumped in and spent over $25000. Then I watched it drop the rest of Tuesday, all of Wednesday, and most of this morning. The whole time I kept thinking how my risk tolerance isn't what it used to be and maybe that's because we have no income right now.

As things started coming back this afternoon I sold some of the stocks I picked up as soon as they turned profitable and put the money back into cash. I hope the others come back the rest of the way tomorrow and I'll cash them out too.

I think there is too much uncertainty out there for me right now and I should probably be back in cash with that money right now. We already have a decent amount in mutual funds so the rest is going back to the sidelines.

Bb

Day trading is bad for the blood pressure.

If you were to hear anything about them opening things up it'd be nice if ya could PM me here in case I miss an announcement or something.

If it weren’t for EBT cards and UI checks, the soup lines would be longer than the ones during the Great Depression.

33 MIL+ unemployed and counting, and that doesn’t count the ones furloughed and can’t be included in the numbers…..yet or the illegal labor force who can’t spend money in the economy because they have no work.

Retail and hospitality is “done”…and it isn’t coming back. That’s 15% of GDP. April YOY is down 21.6%.
https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf

Commercial real estate is “done”…and will have numerous buildings mothballed once businesses figure out the huge overhead they were just able to eliminate and still function as a business…that is those who are able to “remain” in business.

Those two above is what provides your tax base that pays for state, county, city goobernment…and their pensions that will go up in smoke…oh, and for the healthcare system that has empty hallways right now, and most likely into the foreseeable future being everyone will be scared to death to step foot in a hospital unless it is a life or death emergency.

The UI number isn’t the telltale number that draws the real picture as to how bad it is. It is the actual number, the percentage number, of how many of the population are in the labor force, because THAT NUMBER you can not fudge and lie to the public and paint a better picture like you can when they falsify the UI numbers with manipulation and tricks.

The percentage of people in the labor force during the 2008-09 financial crisis was just under 58%. Right now we’re knocking on the door of I think it was the 51-52% number. THAT IS HUGE, and that is how truly bad it really is.

The virus did not cause this. I stated a few months back this is another financial meltdown, and the virus just happened to come along, and they are using the virus as cover to blame for the implosion of the economy. The REPO window was already covering bad assets the financial system was attempting to unload at the end of last year that nobody wanted to hold, even for an overnight loan.

The REPO window books are at 6.5 TRIILION, and the window is WIDE open to give out more to hold the markets up, and that dog will only hunt for so long until the markets start yelling sell…sell.

And THAT is when you will finally have the crash.

There is no way a business can function and profit at 50-75% revenues in today’s hyper competitive dog-eat-dog markets. The numbers simply don’t work, and won’t even cover overhead. Every business during the last several decades were forced to migrate to a JIT business model, where there is ZERO room for a major hiccup, there simply is no room for any major breakage in the channels…anywhere.

Oh, and I didn’t even mention the energy industry…one out of seven jobs in the economy are linked to that industry, that we just watched go into a nose dive.

Construction is 7% of GDP, and with no spending, project ideas remain on a hard drive, and don’t make it to CAD files.

And the trades…no construction projects puts many of them out of business or they attempt to jump into residential repair in their attempt to survive, which floods that market that will already be stagnant, being so many are out of work with no money to pay for repairs, and the residential contractors are already starving who have made that their market of choice with the high UI hitting their numbers.

This isn’t as simple as throwing a breaker back on when the neighborhood goes dark during a storm or replacing a simple line fuse. A financial hurricane came through “again”, and spawned many tornadoes and the cleanup will be a long term project. The lie the gooberment has told the people of, “you need only turn the light switches back on in the stores” will soon be proven wrong too, just like shutting down the economy was wrong, but the financial blow up was going to shut it down anyway…and there won’t be anyone go to prison this time either for all of the illegalities in the financial arena…just like there was not any rule of law enforced for the 2008 crisis.

It won’t be just another crash. It will be Financial Armageddon this time, because they can’t kick the can any further.

Japan tried to print their way out too….and have never recovered from their blowup either…Their markets never recovered.

Sincerely appreciate the well wishes local dirt, thank you.


You’re most likely correct on us jumping the gun on half price rents, but we don’t have many rentals. Most are rented to our employees & one other long term renter. We haven’t had to advertise a rental in quite some time, just word of mouth & mostly to employees as we have decent rentals & we’re pretty good landlords according to our employees I guess 🤷🏻‍♂️ See half price rent 🤦🏼‍♂️😂

No mortgages so we have some wiggle room & with having such great tenants I’d rather spend $$ on breaks for them than advertise for new tenants All of our reg rents are below market value to begin with & we try & keep the places nice.


Our plan was just for renters to pay for RE for us, then have an income stream for us in retirement


My goal was to have 10K per mos from rentals when we retire. Looks like we’re gonna be short that & we’re looking to sell some of what we have anyway due to price of oil being so low & tourism gutted


I tell ya this getting rich gig is more tricky than it looks 😳🤔

Man Elkslayer I wish I could point out where your post is wrong 😔


But seems pretty solid


The piper always has to be paid

Don't. Any advisor will tell you you can't time the market. So don't try. You'll get whipsawed.

There will be no recovery unless businesses can acquire immunity from Covid-19 lawsuits.

"Did the evil business take ALL possible procedures so Aunt Minnie didn't get Covid?"

"No we did what was recommended in terms of masks, limiting people, barriers, etc. Besides we don't think Aunt Minnie got Covid at our place."

"Aha. Strict liability. Pay Uncle Minnie $1,000,000."

The crooked lawyers are licking their chops. Republican lawmakers want to pass a law limiting Covid claims. the Democrats will never allow it.

Well you presumptuous ass hole, I come from a farming family. Both my grandfathers and two uncles were dairy farmers. I grew up working on farms and was a full time hired farm hand for two years after high school. New York is not the same as New York City. Any more stupid f.uckin comments you wish to make today ? You're pretty f.uckin good at them.

Jeff, you got it.

sidebar: Just got texts from a couple doctors they were seeing patients by appointment, wait in car. Suits me fine. I'd rather wait in my truck, anyway. I can listen to Rush and surf.

McConnell talked about that last night, saying it was a requirement to a solid recovery...

while Pelosi clamored for free schit with her cutesie semantics re: her idiotic bill. McConnell and even Rand Paul have let her know that her encyclopedia of liberal freebees are D.O.A.

Good. About time these Rinos grew some balls.

Free, free, free, that all young people hear. They don’t understand it ain’t free. There will be higher taxes in everything. Duh

"Wishful thinking and denial has gotten us to the point we are now? Who the hell was engaging in wishful thinking and denial?"

Who was engaging in wishful thinking and denial? Here are some references to whom:
see: https://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/trumps-statements-about-the-coronavirus/
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"Everybody thinks the re-opening is gonna be like someone turned on a light switch and we're going back to the way it was. I've got news for ya, we'll never be back to "normal" until they come up with a vaccine and increase testing."

If you've read my posts, you'll agree I've been saying the same thing for 2 months. A vaccine IS needed to end this disease and even if a promising vaccine is developed by the end of the year (Trump statement), it will take a lot longer to test its effectiveness, determine toxicity levels, conduct and analyze clinical trials, ramp up to full production and distribute the drug. The record for vaccine development is 4 years (mumps), the average is 10-15 years and, some have never been developed (HIV) after 40 years of research and trials.
see: https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/basics/test-approve.html
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"Between Oct 1, 2019 and April 4, 2020 we had about 50 Million cases of the regular flu with somewhere near 50,000 deaths and we never shut down for that."

OK, we had about 50,000 deaths from the flu in 5 months, but we've already had 86,000+ deaths in 3 months and it's still rising, We'll probably hit 100,000 by Memorial Day (2 weeks) and it might eventually go to 240,000 (but even that's an estimate.
see: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...-may-most-comparable-area-us/5104594002/
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The majority of Covid-19 patients do live, but they may suffer long term damage to the lungs, heart, liver, kidneys and other internal organs.
see: https://www.healthline.com/health-news/what-we-know-about-the-long-term-effects-of-covid-19

86,000 plus?

Go lay down.

Well yeah, everybody that's died since mid Feb did so from the Rona, surprised we aren't at 200K plus!

To address the OP & OT, I’d say beware of anyone that says they know when. In 2008, when the writing was on the wall, the banksters influenced the credit raters to maintain their AAA ratings, so the biggest of the big didn’t have to say they were over leveraged until they dumped their stock. Some individual big names got caught with the musical chairs, but it allowed the whales and the credit raters to maintain their charade. They made some adjustments, but it was just enough to let them continue building the house of cards.

With that level of corruption, I assume we won’t know until its too late.

The credit ratings are still good and FOMO is perpetuating a sucker’s rally. I‘m not a pro. Like most, just a guy with limited powers of observation. I avoid the know-it-alls and base my opinions on previous crashes (1921, 1929, etc), as well as those that base their research on the same. With the exception of 1987, major crashes are followed by a sucker’s rally and further crash. The Great Depression‘s crash lasted months after Black Tuesday. Massive drop, followed by a sucker’s rally and grinding drop over the next couple of years. There was trading during the entire crash, with days and some weeks that looked promising to investors with FOMO. By the time is bottomed out, it was at 10% of it’s highest value and took over 20 years for the market to reach the highs of 1929.