Like to see the returns on rental properties in LA , Seattle , Portland
Detroit, Chicago, philly San Fran , Baltimore this past year
Commercial and residential
I Am Buying Apartments Hand Over FistMar. 03, 2021 9:25 AM ET
High Dividend OpportunitiesSummary + A broader look at the multi-family sector (residential property REITs).
+ How BRT, EQR, and ESS fit into the investment plan.
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Today we are taking a broader look at the multi-family sector (residential property REITs). This is a sector that we were completely out of before COVID, and we started adding last year when the prices dropped.
Apartment rents are economically sensitive and benefit greatly when the job market is improving and when there is inflation. With the amount of stimulus being pumped into the economy, combined with the continuing recovery from COVID, we expect both in the coming years.
We want to be positioned in apartments before the full economic recovery, while prices remain distressed. The bottom line is that the rally in these REITs is substantially underway. The fundamentals reported at Q4 earnings support a big upside movement in apartment REITs. They are set to benefit from both improving fundamentals and momentum.
I am Buying Apartments Hand over FistSummary + Short-term leases make apartments sensitive to economic changes.
+ In 2020, that brought prices down.
+ In 2021, the economy will see a supercharged recovery.
+ For apartment REITs, catch the rally now, it is just getting started!
One of the most beautiful part of owning real estate is that it is literally everywhere and it is needed for literally everything. Anything that humans do, build or create couldn't be done without real estate. Where you live, where you work, where you play, where you exist and even where you will be buried are all "where's," which means somebody, somewhere has paid for and/or is renting that location. Everybody is somewhere, and somebody bought or rented the real estate they are on! An important part of real estate is that supply can be limited based on "hot" locations, which drives prices up. Another important factor is that real estate is a great hedge against inflation, much better than keeping your hard-earned cash eroding at your local bank.
For landlords, real estate provides a very wide variety of opportunities and different ways to collect rents. Of course, not all investment opportunities are created equal. Over time, various types of real estate have evolved their own norms, customs and even laws.
For example, for residential apartments, the vast majority of leases are for a year or less. Commercial properties generally have much longer leases, with some types of real estate seeing 15+ year leases as the norm. Having very short lease terms is something that really sets multi-family real estate apart from other types of real estate.
It is also something that makes it particularly appealing in an inflationary environment. When the economy is growing, multi-family is a great place to be.
Economic SensitivitiesOne consequence of short-term leases is that the renters have more frequent options to exit the lease to move to cheaper options. At least once a year, the renter can decide to go rent somewhere else. Additionally, for most renters, their rent is the largest single recurring monthly bill they have. This makes pricing competition aggressive among competing apartments.
On the other hand,
where a person lives is something that most people prioritize. Specifically, people will happily pay a premium to live closer to work, to be close to a good school for their children, to be within walking distance of amenities, or to be in a more affluent neighborhood.
As a result, we see widely varying results based on local economic conditions. When jobs are growing, we see apartment demand rising and prices quickly go up. When jobs suddenly disappear, rental prices go down quickly.
Consider
New York City. A city that needs no introduction and has long had nosebleed rental prices. The average rent for a 2-bedroom apartment in NYC has generally trended from $3,000-$3,500/month, more than the average American homeowner pays on their mortgage. When much of NYC was shut-down due to COVID restrictions, those rents fell more than 20%.
Source: Zumper.comThose of you who live in the heartland of the US likely still have sticker shock even at the $2,500 rent – keep in mind this is an average so apartments in affluent neighborhoods are much higher! Compare this experience to
Charleston South Carolina:
Source: Zumper.comDespite COVID, rental prices are hitting all-time highs. This is typical of what we see in southern mid-sized cities in the Sunbelt. This area experienced fewer government imposed restrictions, better job stability and experienced growth despite the pandemic.
OpportunitiesFollowing the selloff in 2020, we are very bullish on apartments across the board because the economy is set for a supercharged recovery. There is a lot of liquidity for businesses to use to expand, which means job growth, wage growth and we know that leads to higher demand for apartments.
So would you rather buy an apartment in NYC, or in Charleston? They are two very different opportunities. NYC was harder hit, and when there is a recovery, areas that are harder hit have a higher return when they rebound. Charleston never really slowed down, and if the pandemic couldn't slow it down, that speaks very well of the future for apartments in that area.
You can chose to invest in apartments that are set to see a
V-shaped recovery in coastal markets like NYC, or chose to invest in slower, but steadier growth of the Sunbelt.
If you are into real estate, then you know that the best thing is to have a long term investment horizon. Apartments have proven to be one of the best real estate investments ever. The trick to maximize returns is to buy them on the cheap! Today we share 3 of our favorite apartment REITs that offer the opportunity to capitalize on the big recovery.
BRT ApartmentsBRT Apartments (BRT) is
a REIT that focuses on the Sunbelt. Cities like
Charleston where population growth and job growth have been above average.
Source: BRT PresentationThese cities had less negative impact from COVID and can be expected to continue their growth throughout 2021. BRT currently pays a 5.4% yield.
While the share price has recovered some from since COVID, this is a growth story for BRT's portfolio. Demand for apartments in the Sunbelt is going to be on fire, so we're adding more BRT while it is still trading at low valuations. Investors can expect to collect the 5.4% dividend, with 10%/year in share price growth, a very reasonable expectation.
Equity ResidentialEquity Residential (EQR) is a blue-chip apartment REIT that yields 3.6%. EQR has very rarely traded this cheap, and the yield for this blue chip is extremely attractive. Like most very selective REITs, it owns properties in areas that have historically been considered premium.... like
New York City and
San Francisco, two of the hardest hit markets.
Today, you are getting exposure to some of the best markets in the country at significant discounts. EQR offers a good 30%+ upside to get to prior highs.
EQR is still early on in their recovery and their Q4 earnings report included numerous positive indicators suggesting that the bottom is in. Pricing notably improved late in 2020, physical occupancy improved and move-ins started outpacing move-outs.
Source: EQR Q4-2020 PresentationThese indicators suggest that we will see a V-shaped recovery, in which case shareholders can enjoy more aggressive growth on the rebound than we are likely to see in the areas that didn't fall.
It is important to note that EQR has an A- credit rating, and its fortress balance sheet ensures that it has the ability to navigate through any turmoil. EQR's current yield is 3.6%, and you can expect to bank on significant capital gains. Our target for EQR shares is an upside of 30% to pre-COVID highs and more as growth starts to kick in.
Coastal markets may be down, but the high demand for housing will return with a vengeance. With EQR, you are buying top real estate at rock bottom prices, something that only happens once in a decade.
Essex Property TrustEssex Property Trust (ESS) is a Dividend Aristocrat property REIT that offers today a 3.2% yield. ESS maintained their annual increase in 2021, raising the dividend recently. Like EQR,
ESS has exposure to large cities, with a focus on the West Coast.Like EQR, data shows solid growth in their markets in Q4, and this growth was sequential based on prior quarters.
Source: ESS Q4 2020 Earnings SupplementWith revenues improving in most of their markets, vaccines being distributed, and more businesses reopening, the bottom is well behind us, which was probably in late 2020.
Certainly, the bond markets are showing strong confidence in ESS, as they recently priced bonds at 1.788%, which will allow them to refinance bonds that are currently at 4%. A substantial interest savings, and a big boost in their net future profits!
Most REITs with a "Dividend Aristocrat" status often trade at a premium to their peers, and we expect the same for ESS. Today is a unique opportunity to buy at a discount, an opportunity that is unlikely to last. ESS, will continue to reward its investors by consistently growing its dividend, and with significant upside potential for the price to reach its pre-pandemic levels. For longer-term investors, this is one of the best REITs to buy and hold for the very long term.
ConclusionOwning apartments can be very rewarding for those who love investing in real estate. One key consideration is the entry point, and apartment REITs today offer a unique entry point. At this point, many other REITs are starting to recover to their pre-pandemic levels, but apartment REITs are still lagging. It is only a matter of time until we see a strong recovery, and growth returning to normal. One thing that has been universal across the apartment REITs sector is that their recent earnings came in strong (Q4 compared to Q3) Same-property numbers have clearly improved, rents are climbing up, occupancy increasing, and net operating income improving over the prior months. These trends continued into 2021 and we can expect them to accelerate starting Q1 2021.
The market is often forward looking, and we expect that share prices will fully recover before earnings reach their prior levels. In many cases, the rebound has already started, making apartment REITs not only attractive for value investors like us, but also momentum plays. A V-shaped recovery is on the way as the economy prepares for a supercharged recovery.
In the above report, we have highlighted three of our top apartment REITs that are set for income, growth and capital gains. They cover different geographical areas primed for growth.
All you have to do is invest in these REITs, relax and collect rent with yields between 3.2% and 5.4%. The capital gains are the cherry on top of the cake. Apartments also gives you some protection against inflation so you can sleep better at night!
For thttps://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2021/3/2/16392-1614737168424457.pnghose who love to invest in apartments as a long-term investment, non- HDO pick ESS can be considered along with EQR and BRT. In a sense, all three apartment REITs complement each other in terms of geographic locations and diversification. ESS is a great Dividend Aristocrat to own.