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Joined: Nov 2010
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Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 19,003 |
What kinda roosters?
You getting into cock fightin? 😂
Dave
�The man who complains about the way the ball bounces is likely to be the one who dropped it.� Lou Holtz
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Joined: May 2009
Posts: 616
Campfire Regular
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Campfire Regular
Joined: May 2009
Posts: 616 |
I believe I was correct. I wrote down all the possibilities. This is a well known formula for getting r successes in N independent trials with probability of success p.
See https://www3.nd.edu/~rwilliam/stats1/x13.pdf
The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its
limits.- Albert Einstein
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Joined: Jun 2004
Posts: 44,826
Campfire 'Bwana
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Campfire 'Bwana
Joined: Jun 2004
Posts: 44,826 |
I believe I was correct. I wrote down all the possibilities. This is a well known formula for getting r successes in N independent trials with probability of success p.
See https://www3.nd.edu/~rwilliam/stats1/x13.pdf Almost. Your probabilities don't sum to 1 since you left out the event of zero roosters (heads).
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Joined: Jun 2002
Posts: 131,627
Campfire Sage
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OP
Campfire Sage
Joined: Jun 2002
Posts: 131,627 |
HHHH HTHH THHH HTHT
HHHT HTTH TTHH THTH
HHTT HHTH TTTH THHT
HTTT TTTT TTHT THTT
4 roostrrs (heads) 1/16
3 heads 4/16
2 heads 6/16 = 3/8
1 head 4/16 So many different answers. Seems like an even spit would be a 50/50 chance, no?
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Joined: Jun 2004
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Campfire 'Bwana
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Campfire 'Bwana
Joined: Jun 2004
Posts: 44,826 |
You're forgetting there are more ways (for one example) to get three hens and one rooster than there are to get one rooster.
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Joined: Jun 2002
Posts: 131,627
Campfire Sage
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Campfire Sage
Joined: Jun 2002
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You're forgetting there are more ways (for one example) to get three hens and one rooster than there are to get one rooster. Mathman, what's the answer?
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Joined: May 2009
Posts: 616
Campfire Regular
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Campfire Regular
Joined: May 2009
Posts: 616 |
I believe I was correct. I wrote down all the possibilities. This is a well known formula for getting r successes in N independent trials with probability of success p.
See https://www3.nd.edu/~rwilliam/stats1/x13.pdf Almost. Your probabilities don't sum to 1 since you left out the event of zero roosters (heads). I believe I was correct. I wrote down all the possibilities. This is a well known formula for getting r successes in N independent trials with probability of success p.
See https://www3.nd.edu/~rwilliam/stats1/x13.pdf Almost. Your probabilities don't sum to 1 since you left out the event of zero roosters (heads). Ah yes, you are correct! I left that one out.
The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its
limits.- Albert Einstein
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Joined: Jun 2004
Posts: 44,826
Campfire 'Bwana
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Campfire 'Bwana
Joined: Jun 2004
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What Milwroad wrote with the addition of a 1/16 chance of zero roosters.
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Joined: Jun 2002
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Campfire Sage
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Campfire Sage
Joined: Jun 2002
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Authoritative answer, please. So far, many of the posts don't seem right. Seems like there should be a 50/50 chance of two roosters out of four eggs.
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Joined: Jun 2002
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Campfire Sage
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Campfire Sage
Joined: Jun 2002
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What Milwroad wrote with the addition of a 1/16 chance of zero roosters. Okay. Thanks.
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Joined: Jun 2002
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Campfire Sage
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Campfire Sage
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I'm hoping for one rooster, and three hens, in case anyone is wondering.
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Joined: Jan 2004
Posts: 10,299
Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Jan 2004
Posts: 10,299 |
A few years back when we still had some laying hens we had one in particular that was pretty broody. I would pull several eggs out from under her every day, her's and a few of the other hen's. One day I decide to let her go ahead and set them out so I marked the 9 eggs she was sitting on with a Sharpie. Each day after I would pull any eggs that weren't marked. After 3 weeks they started hatching, 7 of the 9 hatched, I tossed the other 2 after several days and it was apparent they weren't gonna hatch. I was hoping for 4 or 5 new layers, but all 7 of them darn chicks turned out to be roosters. They did eat well. 
Black Cows Matter!
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Joined: Jan 2004
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Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
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Do these birds typically have a 50/50 shot at female/male? Or does nature slant them toward more females than males?
Black Cows Matter!
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Campfire Sage
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Campfire Sage
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Why would two roosters only have a 3/8th chance? If one egg has a 50% chance of producing a rooster, shouldn't four eggs have a 50% chance of producing two roosters? Confusing. Not that you're not correct. It's just that, to a non-mathematician, it seems counterintuitive.
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Joined: Jun 2002
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Campfire Sage
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Campfire Sage
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Do these birds typically have a 50/50 shot at female/male? Or does nature slant them toward more females than males? I wish. Unfortunately, roosters are 50% of eggs hatched. Hatcheries dispose of half the chicks that hatch by sending them down a chute that takes them, alive, to a grinder. Pretty sad for the little rooster chicks.
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Joined: Jun 2002
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Campfire Sage
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Campfire Sage
Joined: Jun 2002
Posts: 131,627 |
A few years back when we still had some laying hens we had one in particular that was pretty broody. I would pull several eggs out from under her every day, her's and a few of the other hen's. One day I decide to let her go ahead and set them out so I marked the 9 eggs she was sitting on with a Sharpie. Each day after I would pull any eggs that weren't marked. After 3 weeks they started hatching, 7 of the 9 hatched, I tossed the other 2 after several days and it was apparent they weren't gonna hatch. I was hoping for 4 or 5 new layers, but all 7 of them darn chicks turned out to be roosters. They did eat well. I bought four chicks from Tractor Supply a few years ago, and the girl who collected them for me assured me they were guaranteed to have been checked, and were all hen chicks. Three turned out to be roosters and only one was a hen. When I went back to complain, no one knew anything about any guarantee.
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Joined: Jan 2004
Posts: 10,299
Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Jan 2004
Posts: 10,299 |
Do these birds typically have a 50/50 shot at female/male? Or does nature slant them toward more females than males? I wish. Unfortunately, roosters are 50% of eggs hatched. Hatcheries dispose of half the chicks that hatch by sending them down a chute that takes them, alive, to a grinder. Pretty sad for the little rooster chicks. I've seen video of the sorting process. Yeah you don't want to go down the shiny chute.
Black Cows Matter!
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Joined: Jun 2004
Posts: 44,826
Campfire 'Bwana
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Campfire 'Bwana
Joined: Jun 2004
Posts: 44,826 |
I'm hoping for one rooster, and three hens, in case anyone is wondering. On a particular set of four eggs it's a 1/16 chance. In the space of all sets of four eggs it's a 4/16 chance. RHHH, HRHH, HHRH, HHHR are your one rooster, three hens arrangements out of HHHH HHHR HHRH HHRR HRHH HRHR HRRH HRRR RHHH RHHR RHRH RHRR RRHH RRHR RRRH RRRR
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Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Kahuna
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Campfire Kahuna
Joined: May 2016
Posts: 60,341 |
Geeze.....glad mathman showed up.
Its so clear now....
I am MAGA.
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