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Joined: Aug 2017
Posts: 9,148 Likes: 8
Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Aug 2017
Posts: 9,148 Likes: 8 |
I'm always looking in select markets. A little cool off noted, but nothing making me want to unseat some capital.
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Joined: May 2006
Posts: 2,890
Campfire Regular
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Campfire Regular
Joined: May 2006
Posts: 2,890 |
Reasons NOT to expect home prices to "crash" :
1. Historically, and in especially in light of current inflation 6% is NOT a high interest rate for a mortgage.
2. Some of the hottest real estate appreciation (mid-late 1980's, early 2000's) occurred when mortgage rates were much higher than present.
3. huge real estate appreciation has happened at the same time as stock market declined, e.g. after the Dot-Com bubble burst.
4. Residential rents are high and continue to climb.
5. Cost of new residential construction is high relative to resale prices.
6. High population growth and low amount of construction since "Sub. Prime Crisis"
7. Exodus from expensive urban areas, as already mentioned.
Last edited by night_owl; 09/23/22.
abusus non tollit usum
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Joined: Aug 2010
Posts: 28,341 Likes: 6
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Aug 2010
Posts: 28,341 Likes: 6 |
Reasons NOT to expect home prices to "crash" : 1. Historically, and in especially in light of current inflation 6% is a high interest rate for a mortgage. 2. Some of the hottest real estate appreciation (mid-late 1980's, early 2000's) occurred when mortgage rates were much higher than present. 3. huge real estate appreciation has happened at the same time as stock market declined, e.g. after the Dot-Com bubble burst. 4. Residential rents are high. 5. Cost of new residential construction is high relative to resale. 6. Exodus from expensive urban areas as already mentioned. Don’t tell Old Two Fist Houston
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Joined: Feb 2013
Posts: 21,950 Likes: 13
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Feb 2013
Posts: 21,950 Likes: 13 |
Reasons NOT to expect home prices to "crash" :
1. Historically, and in especially in light of current inflation 6% is NOT a high interest rate for a mortgage.
2. Some of the hottest real estate appreciation (mid-late 1980's, early 2000's) occurred when mortgage rates were much higher than present.
3. huge real estate appreciation has happened at the same time as stock market declined, e.g. after the Dot-Com bubble burst.
4. Residential rents are high and continue to climb.
5. Cost of new residential construction is high relative to resale prices.
6. High population growth and low amount of construction since "Sub. Prime Crisis"
7. Exodus from expensive urban areas, as already mentioned. Good commentary... I would add lack of labor at any practical level... i.e. the squeeze is on with any functional worker... competition to flip burgers at $30/hour vs. $25/hour for a roofer. And that is amongst the smaller and smaller group of people willing to work anyway... vs. jackoff on their cell phones all day. The socialism promise of "Equality For All" is an undercurrent in all matters... Of course it is a lie... but that matters not. There simply are too many ticks living on the hound-dog... for the hound-dog to make it.
If you are not actively engaging EVERY enemy you encounter... you are allowing another to fight for you... and that is cowardice... plain and simple.
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Joined: May 2006
Posts: 2,890
Campfire Regular
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Campfire Regular
Joined: May 2006
Posts: 2,890 |
The "moving parts" of 2022 are very different than any other point in my lifetime.
At least that is my opinion...
People are unlike ever before...
Historical Models are not applicable Thanks, Cash. I agree with your earlier assessment that the "moving parts" are different this time, for many reasons. Relating to the worker psychology / cell phone jackoff issue, I think in the near future a lot of self-relocated remote workers will have their positions eliminated or off-shored.
abusus non tollit usum
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Joined: Aug 2016
Posts: 35
Campfire Greenhorn
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Campfire Greenhorn
Joined: Aug 2016
Posts: 35 |
Houses/real estate in some areas will decline in price. Others won't. Depends on as always location. Less desirable areas will decline first. Demands in my area (Huntsville AL) is extremely strong. Not slowing down here at all.
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Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,650
Campfire Regular
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Campfire Regular
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,650 |
We have not purchased an investment property to flip on almost to years due to current work load and crazy prices. Investor friends were over-paying because money was so cheap and rents are crazy. I do not see a crash like in 07-08 coming but a moderation in prices without the bidding wars we have here. The wife and I are looking for another house for ourselves and would like to rent our current house out now that it's paid for but I cannot find something to build equity in at a reasonable price. I do believe some of the major markets will be hit much harder as people move away.
"Jerry is dead, Phish suck time to get a job "
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Joined: Dec 2019
Posts: 3,790 Likes: 1
Campfire Tracker
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Campfire Tracker
Joined: Dec 2019
Posts: 3,790 Likes: 1 |
I had a 15 plus percentage mortgage with “Peanuts Carter.” So I don’t have a lot of sympathy for bitching about 5% mortgage rates. The sub 3% rates of not to long ago were unrealisticly low. If you were smart or lucky enough to grab that rate, good for you. I haven’t had a mortgage in 15 plus years. And so what if the value of your house drops a bit, if you’re not selling, ride it out. The real estate market always has had its ups and downs but trends up over time. Just remember that cost of living back then was way less than it is now as far as % income required for housing, essentials, vehicles etc. So it's not really apples to apples when you consider all of it together. I’m not sure about that. Carter screwed up so bad interest rates went nuts, I had one at 17% as everyone said it was the new norm. At the same time there were lines to get gas which nearly doubled in price, utilities went way up, and so did most everything else including food etc. The cost of living went up very fast. Osky
A woman's heart is the hardest rock the Almighty has put on this earth and I can find no sign on it.
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Joined: Aug 2009
Posts: 3,027
Campfire Tracker
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Campfire Tracker
Joined: Aug 2009
Posts: 3,027 |
Not me!
I am saving for a new well Ed.
And by saving I mean shopping around for an interest rate under 8. how much is a new well?....of course depending on depth...what is your estimate......bob
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Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 25,131 Likes: 1
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 25,131 Likes: 1 |
How many here are actually selling or buying? I’m selling out west and buying over east. Some folks are pricing aggressively and the homes are moving. Others priced homes like rates are still dick nothing and they are dropping prices or not selling.
“Life is life and fun is fun, but it's all so quiet when the goldfish die.”
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Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 25,131 Likes: 1
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 25,131 Likes: 1 |
Interest rates aren’t “high” yet. They just aren’t inflation fanning retarded anymore.
“Life is life and fun is fun, but it's all so quiet when the goldfish die.”
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Joined: Nov 2002
Posts: 33,790 Likes: 11
Campfire 'Bwana
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Campfire 'Bwana
Joined: Nov 2002
Posts: 33,790 Likes: 11 |
Not me!
I am saving for a new well Ed.
And by saving I mean shopping around for an interest rate under 8. Ouch. Home equity loan maybe?
Conduct is the best proof of character.
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Joined: Dec 2004
Posts: 9,743 Likes: 15
Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Dec 2004
Posts: 9,743 Likes: 15 |
The "moving parts" of 2022 are very different than any other point in my lifetime.
At least that is my opinion...
People are unlike ever before...
Historical Models are not applicable
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Joined: Aug 2009
Posts: 3,027
Campfire Tracker
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Campfire Tracker
Joined: Aug 2009
Posts: 3,027 |
Interest rates aren’t “high” yet. They just aren’t inflation fanning retarded anymore. interest rates are high....its a matter of perspective....3 to 7 is high not everyone had a 10 or 15% mortgage....alot weren't even born yet. I dont think 6% is bad ....but I have seen the flip side of things....housing will and already is slowing down yes some markets will be better than others... building prices will come down...they have to when material isnt selling the price will drop...how much it comes down is the question. labor will come down....if we get in a longer recession than anticipated.....no work no toys no house.....some areas it will be a blip others not so much....bob
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Joined: Jul 2010
Posts: 8,534 Likes: 7
Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Jul 2010
Posts: 8,534 Likes: 7 |
Bought a house & property 10 or so weeks ago. Sold my house & property 5-6 weeks ago.
Houses are not selling as quickly as they have in the past 2 or so years.
Houses around 325K > 380K went very fast if at all desireable.
The buyers in that market are a little more cautious for a couple reasons:
1) loans a little higher
2) More houses on the sell for longer time- no big rush
3) the prices are dropping, not at all uusual to see a 400K home now reduced by 50k
4) everything slowing down
5) this situation feeds on itself
This is your average buyer, people that can afford 500K +homes ....little different situation
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Joined: Feb 2013
Posts: 21,950 Likes: 13
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Feb 2013
Posts: 21,950 Likes: 13 |
Not me!
I am saving for a new well Ed.
And by saving I mean shopping around for an interest rate under 8. how much is a new well?....of course depending on depth...what is your estimate......bob I have been trying to get a well on my place in WV for 2 years... or at least get someone to come out and look/give me an estimate. Started with 5 points of contacts... then 3... Now there are only 2 still doing that work. The "Next Generation" is not taking up these jobs/trades. At least around me. --------------------------- Here in Virginia... my new neighbor put in a septic system (just last week). I am friends with the GC. $30k. 5-6 month delay. 3/2 home. Nothing fancy. I did not ask about the cost of the well.
If you are not actively engaging EVERY enemy you encounter... you are allowing another to fight for you... and that is cowardice... plain and simple.
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Joined: Dec 2013
Posts: 44,652 Likes: 22
Campfire 'Bwana
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Campfire 'Bwana
Joined: Dec 2013
Posts: 44,652 Likes: 22 |
Bought a house & property 10 or so weeks ago. Sold my house & property 5-6 weeks ago.
Houses are not selling as quickly as they have in the past 2 or so years.
Houses around 325K > 380K went very fast if at all desireable.
The buyers in that market are a little more cautious for a couple reasons:
1) loans a little higher
2) More houses on the sell for longer time- no big rush
3) the prices are dropping, not at all uusual to see a 400K home now reduced by 50k
4) everything slowing down
5) this situation feeds on itself
This is your average buyer, people that can afford 500K +homes ....little different situation Can you spell NY'er? They sell their place in NY for $750k-1M. $500-750k in FL? No big deal. 1000+ NY'ers a day coming across FL's GA/FL state line. They're not stopping in GA like they were. GA going too blue. Real estate markets are by NEIGHBORHOOD in FL now.
Slaves get what they need. Free men get what they want. Rehabilitation is way overrated. Orwell wasn't wrong. GOA member disappointed NRA member 24HCF SEARCH
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Joined: Feb 2013
Posts: 21,950 Likes: 13
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Feb 2013
Posts: 21,950 Likes: 13 |
...some areas it will be a blip others not so much....bob I concur... BUT The "blip" might be way longer... than a normal blip... And the "other areas" may be 3x-5x longer than "normal". i.e. we all may be speaking Spanish by then.
If you are not actively engaging EVERY enemy you encounter... you are allowing another to fight for you... and that is cowardice... plain and simple.
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Joined: Feb 2013
Posts: 21,950 Likes: 13
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Feb 2013
Posts: 21,950 Likes: 13 |
Can you spell NY'er?
They sell their place in NY for $750k-1M. $500-750k in FL? No big deal.
1000+ NY'ers a day coming across FL's GA/FL state line. They're not stopping in GA like they were. GA going too blue.
Real estate markets are by NEIGHBORHOOD in FL now. I heard a small rumor once that the rich California folks may someday also think of moving out. Places like Montana, Idaho, Jackson Hole. But I am sure it ain't true.
If you are not actively engaging EVERY enemy you encounter... you are allowing another to fight for you... and that is cowardice... plain and simple.
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Joined: Dec 2013
Posts: 44,652 Likes: 22
Campfire 'Bwana
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Campfire 'Bwana
Joined: Dec 2013
Posts: 44,652 Likes: 22 |
Can you spell NY'er?
They sell their place in NY for $750k-1M. $500-750k in FL? No big deal.
1000+ NY'ers a day coming across FL's GA/FL state line. They're not stopping in GA like they were. GA going too blue.
Real estate markets are by NEIGHBORHOOD in FL now. I heard a small rumor once that the rich California folks may someday also think of moving out. Places like Montana, Idaho, Jackson Hole. But I am sure it ain't true. Lol. Probably not. ,(More from CA coming here now in larger numbers, too.) Newscum policies.
Slaves get what they need. Free men get what they want. Rehabilitation is way overrated. Orwell wasn't wrong. GOA member disappointed NRA member 24HCF SEARCH
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