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If lumber prices mean anything...framing lbr down 9 bucks this week again, OSB down 10% too. I get lbr quotes on 'random lengths .com'. Which quotes on the shipping dock at the mill. Don't know what prices are at retail level. Overall for the year some are quoting all categories down 60%.

I wish my BMW mini looked like that.
My cream colored 2004 S model has the ratty look.

Top speed 134 mph.
I have had it up to 70.

What do you think Teal?


We had already gone over the cliff by your estimation a few months ago.....where are we now?

I don't know - were it not for bars/restaurants - today's jobs numbers would have been murder.

I wish I did know. I just know what I'm seeing in transportation and we tend to see recession and recovery before the greater populace feels it.

Rates are down, carriers closing shop and those that are open, are literally begging me for work in some of their emails. It's not good. Retail transportation usually sees a bump for holiday. In the old days, large carriers like SNI would lose money in the first 8 months of the year and make enough in the last 4 to be profitable overall for the year. Last 4 months of this year - ain't happening like that, volume wise.

2 separate and large LTL companies looking to furlough drivers over holidays. That's rare and LTL is usually very exposed to mfg and holiday freight this time of year.

Everyone saw what was going on in Covid years and assumed that would continue forever. Dumb/stupid. It stopping combined with Dem leadership means beans and bread only for the next 18-24 months.

My business fell off a cliff after the 2nd week of October.
We are averaging less than half of what we were doing the first nine months of the year
It has not rebounded any whatsoever since.

You can only live on borrowed money so long. There's only one way outta this and it's down...........pains coming...........

I've been seriously hoping for a downfall for over a year.
With inflation and everything else, it is inevitable.

Chicken/egg, high fuel prices and a bad economy are like peas and carrots.

Americana are status hungry and use possessions to show their borrowing
power. Solvency isn't judged. Ownership either.
What they drive, where we live, our vacations(hunts?) are.

We are coming out a of a time of crazy home and car prices. The 2 biggest
reasons for large debt. Couple it with inflation, especially fuel and food.
And just like 2007, Americans are overleveraged at a really bad time.

Been hoping for a fall because I fear the only thing holding the cards up
is increasing high percentage debt.

The longer we prolong the reckoning, the worse it will be.



My employment is a great countra-indicator.
We run off cycle traditionally, our five year outlook is currently better than
any time in this century. And it keeps getting better. It has never mirrored the general economy except in the early 80s.


Just a factory worker/piss poor philosopher,
probably not worth the time taken to (poorly) compose it.

that's what I've been fearing, but so far, we're not seeing much change. The consumer seems to keep wanting to eat, so we keep sending the truck out. Covidiocy took out a couple of our competing farms, and that's helped a bunch, for sure.

Still can't help expecting for the hammer to drop, anytime now, but the economic numbers don't show it. 2.7% GDP growth in the third quarter. No s#it?

FedEx Freight - largest LTL provider starts furloughs this weekend. When they're normally looking for a pile of seasonal help to come aboard, they're letting guys take time off. And they're doing it without disposition of the rail situation where a strike would push truck rates to the moon.

Law enforcement calls that a "clue".

Furloughs

We only use LTL[less than?] for furniture shipments.
Spring, summer and early fall we were receiving 1 or 2 shipments weekly.
Currently it's 1 every 2-3 weeks.

You have to remember that this is an inventory recession. Everyone, and I mean EVERYONE, over-bought on anything they could get their grubby hands on, just to make sure they had it on hand. Warehouses were all filled to the rafters, and mobile warehousing booming literally anywhere trailers and containers could be parked and stacked. People paid historically high prices for trucks to bring that stuff so they would be sure to have it..... all six to nine months earlier than in previous years.

It's not that shipping is slow, it's just that shipping moved up six months on the calendar. We're in the post-holiday shipping doldrums already.

My customers are not in that boat. Other customers aren't in that boat. They don't have inventory and aren't ordering because others aren't ordering. Understand, siloed and different from area to area.

Lumber futures are $430, it was $1500 last year, very close to pre-rona numbers now. Romex 12/3 is $1 a foot, it was $1.50 earlier this year, and .60 a foot pre rona. I would expect we will be pre-rona prices by summer on most building supplies as the economy struggles. It takes a bit for wallstreet to catch up with main street, and I think main street is starting to struggle as it sobers up from all the free .gov money and 0% interest rates.

Housing and durable goods are the first victims of higher interest rates, I would expect things like auto's, appliances, and housing to fall quickly and have an affect on the broader economy mid 23. The way to fix inflation is recession, and we are heading for some pain.

We[I] have been reducing inventory all year, our primary supplier is way over stocked as per above.

It really didn't require genius level abilities to see what was on the horizon IMHO

CBO’s 2023 posted outlook:

Higher inflation, slower growth and larger budget deficits.