Home Forums Miscellaneous Topics Stock Market and Investing Where do you have your money now? What's your next move? When ...?

Title says it all.

Lots of people in cash right now. You?

Stocks, bonds, metals, real estate ...?

If, how, when getting back into something?

Looking for ideas ...

For short term money T-bills are the answer right now - yields not seen in years (5% ) with virtually no risk, no state or local taxes, several durations to choose from. You can purchase any amount directly from Treasury.gov. You may consider laddering them because the Fed meets in a few weeks and we all know where FF rates are going from here and the T-bills yields should follow the FF rates.

I'm a little concerned about the future of my Norfolk Southern Preferred. If the government decides to rip NS a new one, it's gonna get ugly. Since I first bought it, it has quadrupled....but if Biden's DOJ goes after them, it's toast. I'm not real happy with the idiot who tried to get the people in East Pal to sign liability waivers. Corporate should have immediately sent several boxcars of palletized 100 dollar bills and gave them to anybody with a sore throat. That would be a lot better optic than lawyers with clipboards.

I do not jump in and out of the market. For 35 years, I’ve had a mixed portfolio of stocks, bonds, mutual funds, tax free munis, and a little cash. I meet with my investment advisor occasionally and make some adjustments. But jumping out of the market or “timing” it to buy low, sell high, doesn’t work for me. When I get a cash infusion from somewhere, I discuss investment options for that money and usually spread it over several types of investments.

Ditto.

Buy low, sell high.

Dollar is high and mighty right now, so it makes sense to look at some international buys if you have cash.

Other than that, dollar cost average in, and stay in.

I manage my own account plus some others. Current earnings and capital preservation is the focus. These are large portfolios that outstrip current needs so the approach is conservative.

Here is what I believe:

The fed needs to fix its balance sheet so rates will remain high and maybe rise.

Mild to medium recession later part of 23.

As rates go higher tolerance to currently unprofitable activates will decline and high PE stocks will get pressed lower. Since money will tighten and inflation is continuing I am being stricter on stock criteria and evaluation and buying and selling stocks.

With that as marching orders currently have 45% real-estate, 10% assets and 45% investments.

Of the 45% investments currently comfortable with 50% in cash like investments 45% percent equities of which all need to pay minimum 3% Divs, 50% Div payout or less and PE 22 or lower. This will give up some long term appreciation but will provide reliable stability. The other 5% stock are bets that will outperform in the future.

Cash parked in multiple money market funds earning 4.2 -4.5% paid monthly. Currently using SWVXX, SNOXX at Schwab , FNSXX, VMRXX, WMPXX at Wells Fargo and SPRXX at Fidelity. Looking at Tbills currently 5%+ for 6-12 months but money is tied up an no monthly payout. It is just too easy to do MM funds but if it goes higher I might grab some.

Mainly there is a lot more cash than in the past but this is meeting the needs of everyone and providing liquidity which gives flexibility. YMMV

I've got about 75% of my portfolio in short term T-bills right now. I've been buying 3 month T bills because the rates are rising so fast that I don't want to go longer, I roll over at a higher rate when they mature. I believe we're in for a recession (it's almost a certainty) and there'll be a decent correction in the market. I'll re-evaluate getting back in at that time.

I too have a portion of my portfolio in dividend stocks and some dividend ETFs. However, with Money Market, bond, CD and T-bills paying what they are, I have started moving some $ out of the stocks and ETFs and into the those lower risk assets. At 5% no risk return, it's hard to pass it up.

Did anyone invest in I-series savings bonds last year? The variable rate yield was over 9% in the first half of the year. I think it's currently over 6%.

Muni bonds, T-bills with short maturity dates, and CD's

4.62% on the 26 week T-Bill auction completed this morning. There is a 52 week auction tomorrow and another 26 week auction 3/27.


6.89% current 6 month rate, and they compound semi-annually, so these high rates for the last year and a half pack some extra weight. Too bad the annual limit is $10,000 per person.

Sold a business in late 2021. Have been heavily focused on private equity and private credit markets since then. A few private venture funds have come up. All seem to be a big gamble, but a few have gotten some capital. Haven't moved my equity positions at all. Waiting for a big correction, but even then it'll be a small move.

In coffee cans!

Forty years of a broadly diversified portfolio with consistent investments through all the downturns has been rewarding.
Timing the market is a guaranteed loser. Matching what an employer contributes is a guaranteed winner. Don't spend beyond your means and pay off the monthly credit card. Because of the continued action by Powell, short term CD's have eclipsed 5% in my area. This will be my next move.

Stocks, it's what I know best. I just picked up KEY and PACW hopefully at the bottom of their range.

still heavy in NASDAQ. Up 13.95% YTD. Fingers crossed that it keeps moving in the right direction.

Sold my HSBC and replaced it with LW.

Sold CNHI, it was fun but it formed a head and shoulders in its 6 month chart. Reinforced my postion in LW with the proceeds.

80% of my SEP/IRA is in timberland and has been for the last 20 years. I have a few hundred grand in the market just to
play with. Been trading TOST 16.6-20ish, GOOGL 95-102, FANG 130-145, RXRX 6-7.5, and VZ37-41 with a 6.5% div. I just can't get enthused about chasing some of this prices.

Sold my NVDA today and made a very nice profit. I thought its momentum was starting to wane.Bought FDX and GSK to replace it.

It's my understanding the S&P is valued at 50 times earnings... a realistic/profitable number is 15 times earnings....
Add into this companies going woke and broke doesn't bode well for the stock market.
Our currency is on the verge of collapse, the petro dollar is over and trillions of USD will come flooding home soon.
Best invest in real things, think commodities, income producing real estate etc.... if the BRICS establish a gold backed exchange , precious metals will skyrocket.

If you are talking about the 12 month trailing P/E of the S&P 500 index, WSJ has it at 18.12 as of 4/6/23, down from 25.57 a year ago.
https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/peyields

Another source put it at 21.94 as of 4/6/23. It also shows an index mean of 16 and a median of 14.93
https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio

It’s still high but coming back down to earth. I think that is because interest rates give people better risk-free alternatives to park their cash and because cash-burning growth companies that need to borrow money at higher rates are much riskier now. Companies that supply stuff that people need are still going to be fine.

I am putting money into

ABML

Aquametals


Lithium recycling.

Green Giant moves crazy up and down 4 trading.


ZIM is also an interesting deal.

Divedends are very high.

Sold off what I had left in TRTN to take advantage of the pop in its price. Bought BBAI as a cheap spec.

Cash , real estate , and precious metals. Less than 10% of my assets in dividend stocks.

Well said.

Looking into the details, however, reveals the interesting stuff.

https://www.yardeni.com/pub/stockmktperatio.pdf

Looking at the P/E's, the large cap (think flight to safety) is still fairly lofty both in real and historical terms. Not nutzo anymore, but still pretty pricey in a 5% inflation environment.

S&P Small cap P/E's are a different story (think flight from risk) and have really cratered over the last year or so, pretty much cut in half to well under 15. The notable part is that the S&P small caps have significantly lower P/E's than their Russel 2000 counterparts/..

Lead, Primers , Powder and Brass .

Google said 21.76 today......

https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio

I'm moving all my retirement investments away from woke financial companies. Finished with my 2 stock investment companies, just waiting for CD maturity to finish.

Sold off a couple of turds because they weren't performing as I had hoped. Sold CEIX and IP. Bought THC and DANOY bolstering their positions and also bought KBH, PHM, and TOL.

I have been all in on big tech since 1994; msft, goog, amzn.

My father was mostly msft.
My son is all amzn and goog from stock options.
My brother is big tech.
My sister is big pharma.
A friend of mine is big pharma from stock options.

Everyone's next move is to die, so their heirs can sell the stocks without paying capitol gains.

Tobacco stocks.

Tobacco is legal, nicotine is addictive, and the gross profit margin is in the neighborhood of 50%.

So who and what has been their recent performance?

MO, PM and BTI all do pretty well and pay good dividends. MO is one of the 30 best stocks over the past 30 years. See https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/stocks/603777/30-best-stocks-of-the-past-30-years

Sold CRWD, it was fun but it's rolling over. Bought BAESY and DANOY to replace it.

I sold BA, PACW and NAT last week because they were rolling over in their price. Got rid of PACW because things weren't looking good and pretty much traded it for NYCB straight up.Bought some more Meta to bolster its position, also bought BMWYY, MGM, GOLD, KGC, and KTOS. I'll revisit BA when its price becomes more attractive.

Good move on the PACW!!!

Sold AAPL for a very nice profit. It was bumping up against previous highs, also it appears that AI related stocks are making a bubble. I thought I would git while the gittin' was good. Bought COF, perhaps to follow Warren's lead. Just sitting on the rest of proceeds to see where the market goes.

Sorry I've been away from this thread. I had my shopping list out. I bought ORCL. AMZN, CRM, GOOGL and INTC. Sold KGC and DVN today.

I am close to retirement. My wife and I have over a 1/3 in CDs some in an interest stable value fund and the rest in mutual funds. I bought a 3 month CD yesterday with her IRA cash at 5.35. I have a couple of stocks that are up I should sell and buy a CD with. Above 5% I am happy with CDs.

Selling index and ETF funds this week sweeping out profits.50/50 chance SP moves higher next 2 months just mhop.Moving to cash sic money markets.I do believe we will a recession by the end of the year.

I’ve just been day trading for the last 10 months. Usually SPX ODTE, not for everyone.
My .02, look at the 10yr, every time the yield looks like its gonna take off it get s smacked down. Only one with that fire power is the FED. So balance sheet increases while they raise and supposedly do QT lol. So this “not QE” is driving this market, treasury is backdooring the fed, dogs and cats living together etc.

This doesn’t end well, there is going to be a debt market implosion and we’re going to see bailouts like never before. But until then I’m fully expecting all time highs and playing it that way via index derivatives, things could get crazy to the upside before the house of cards folds, so I sure as hell wouldn’t be short right now. I’m Hedging via 3x bears DRV,FAZ,JDST (might want to pull up a chart on those going back to 2008,seriously might be the best tip you’ve ever got) .

After that, and who knows when it will be I plan on loading up on commodities and precious metals,oil etc. I’ll be buying TLT and more bitcoin too. Become your own central bank because it doesn’t look good, at a scale we can’t even begin to understand. The 5 largest banks currently have over 100 TRILLION in derivatives. We are in big trouble, when? idk this is a traders market, invest with care.

Edit to add my bank derivative estimate was wrong. It’s actually over 150 trillion for the top 3 banks. Wow.

Idk what will happen and these things always take a long time to play out, but it seems the writing is on the wall. I fear we might be in a situation like Japan in the late 80’s-90’s. Not to scare people but after that crash they didn’t reach those highs again until this year.. so if you’re a guy that cost averages indexes, which most are even “money managers “ , something to keep in mind.

Riot Platforms Inc
13.59 USD
+10.22 (303.26%)year to date

Amazon.com, Inc.
130.38 USD
+44.56 (51.92%)year to date

Fidelity® Contrafund® Fund
14.94 USD
+2.89 (23.98%)year to date

Beautiful correction in progress, love 1% or more daily moves in indexs. Any day traders in here?

Natural resources, EIS the Israel etf, gold and silver mining, oil, AI, RIOT, TH, PBR, 3 commodity ETFs, Carvana, Hertz warrants, POWW, and a few others. 25% in cash. Self directed IRA, not all that big. My wife has the big one, at least for us it's kinda big.

Our best asset is land that is raising mostly trees and a few cows, but mostly has appreciated probably 8 to 10 times over what we have in it.

We are not wealthy and don't use credit.

Look for bargains: guns, old cars , trucks , boats, atv's, tools, etc...........

something bought right is half sold. $$$CASH$$$

CVNA still looking squeezee. 1/24 90-100C getting heavy bids. With its short interest it could get interesting. A lot of it is open interest so looks like a good chunk of it is nothing but gamma traders. Interesting nonetheless

Riot Platforms Inc
NASDAQ: RIOT
15.48 USD +1.94 (14.33%)today

I've been in the Contrafund for years....it has served me well.

Riot Platforms Inc
16.86 USD
+13.49 (400.30%)year to date

Are you selling these when you post or just posting paper gains in a bull run?

Making a metric shiit ton of money

Riot Platforms Inc
17.51 USD
YTD
+14.14 (419.58%)


Riot Platforms Inc
17.51 USD
+0.65 (3.86%)today

Been buying and selling this for years.

Nice. Riot should be an easy hold too, I think $BTC is just getting started. My personal favorite crypto follower is COIN, but might grab some 1/24 cons on Riot too.

Riot Platforms Inc
NASDAQ: RIOT
20.29 USD +2.64 (14.96%)today

Coin 100C 6000%. Went 10,000% if you bought at open

Speaking of coin XRP got re-listed after wining the sec court case. Made 90% on it today. Holding on to that one though

Outstanding

Anyone notice? It should be the leading story on every finance news channel. Hardly a peep. For the 3rd time this year the 10y pops above 4%.. In the next 4 days it gets knocked back 34 BASIS POINTS. “Not QE” LOL

This is why the dollar continues to fall. They are creating inflation while raising rates, acting like they care.

FYI, not normal. We should be imploding but the fed is propping it up. Take from that what you will

800k up

Killing it!

I have to think there’s a 5% correction coming. Big money that usually allocate 60/40 are still underweight equities and they want an entry. If we see a a 5-10% from say 4600spx to 4200ish that’s going to be a big long trigger signal.

The TV is going to be telling retail to run at that point while they rip it a week later to make them chase.

But like I said in my original post on this thread, Carful, this has blow off written all over it.

Unpopular opinion, 2022 was not a bear market, it was a correction in the 40 year secular bull. The turn to bear is getting very close (within a year) imo.

👀 thar she blows!

Hoping for Nvidea to go up on the morning. Looks like they had a good earnings call today with a 10% post market bump. Hoping it continues in the morning

With a P/E ratio of 245, I’m pretty sure NVDA is overvalued at this point. It may not be a bad time to trim if you own a bunch.

The pre-market early trading indicates a bad day ahead.

Day?

Sold AMZN, it's been trending downward for the past few weeks. It was fun while I had it. Replaced it with FLR, X, and CLF.

I am meeting with my Fidelity guy next Tuesday. It will be the start of an annual rolling over funds into a Roth now that I am over 59 1/2, setting up college accounts for my two new grandchildren and bumping up a monthly funds transfer since a piece of pension has been recently emptied as planned. Zero real movement in where the funds are invested though.

I finally sold DANOY. It's the second time I've owned it. The first time was quite profitable. This time not so much. The hopium in my bowl ran out. I got UUUU to replace it.

My portfolio, not my wife's:
AMZN 47% been in for 11 years
GOOGL 42% been in for 18 years
NVDA 5% been in for 5 months
NFLX 2% been in for 10 years
UNP 0.6% been in for 10 years

I will sell if company does not continue to grow exponentially in revenue.