Home Forums Hunting & Shooting Hunter's Campfire Yield Curve Inversion- No Bueno

We all know about Germany between the wars.

Government overspending, as in the many extraneous social programs and the Ukraine war, will burden us with inflation.

The pain is only beginning. They only know how to spend, print,and tax. The war on fossil fuel, is making things 1000 times worse.

Dutch, I agree with most of what your posted if not just to tamp down inflation, but also just good fiscal hygiene. But we know how far that would go in Washington.

However what is your logic behind removing the tax penalty for work on SS?

I would assume it would incentivize some older folks to KEEP working, and help with the labor shortages we’re having.

We're do you think the toilet paper is going.

How does that help with inflation?

Because employers can find (older) workers for $15/hr, rather than having to offer $25/hr, and passing the “inflated” cost along to customers??????

(Too much money chasing too few WORKERS (rather than goods, in this case. It increases the number of potential workers, since folks are incentivized to work longer in life)

Mmmm... Maybe.

But I'm thinking of it from a monetary supply side increase and stifled energy production, not wage inflation. Seems that this wouldn't reduce the amount of money available as would something like restarting student debt payments.

If the cause of this current round of inflation is because of government spending (Later COVID relief, debt relief, and the $1.7T spending bill in Dec), and I believe it is along with artificially capping energy production, then I don't see how wages are contributing much.

Is there much if any wage inflation, yet?

Supply and demand. The Fed chokes demand while the Dems choke consumer supply by spending on government programs and paying people not to work and flooding the supply of money. The Fed refuses to acknowledge the cross currents. It can't end well without a change in administration and soon.

Wage inflation???
That guy flipping your burger is making $20 an hour, now. Three years ago, he was making $10……

Good point.

Yep. Check out this pay raise for commercial pilots:

https://onemileatatime.com/insights/pilot-pay-raises-sustainable/

It's not complicated. The only shortage that would be beneficial is a scarcity of paper for printing money.

The Mortgage Market Cum’n to a Halt if J. Rome Continues his Quest..

Banks make the Spread between Short End T’s an Loan at a Rate which is Above That ..

If the Short End is Higher than the Long End then it’s 52 Card Pick Up ..

The End ..

It's not even paper, dots on a computer screen.

There’s also a supply side to getting more people working. People who work PRODUCE goods and services. People who retire don’t. If a person of retirement age keeps working, they commonly will spend a bit more, but not everything they make. So the SUPPLY of goods and services increases by a full worker’s share, but the DEMAND for the goods and services they produce grows only a fraction of that full share.

Likewise, if you can move someone into the workforce instead of going to grad school for gender studies, they produce a full share rather than zero, but their consumption only goes up a fraction of a share.

Both examples of how increasing the workforce is anti inflationary.

Conversely, increasing unemployment by reducing business activity reduces the number of people producing, but not the number who are consuming. That is clearly inflationary.

Now, I’m not at ALL opposed to a guy making $20 an hour for changing my oil or bagging my groceries. Well paying jobs are good for our society. But just making all the numbers bigger (wages and expenses) doesn’t do anybody much good.

And neither does jacking up the interest rate to “slow down the economy”. It’s asinine.

The inflation spiral,in the 70’s was started when Carter misjudged OPEC and the oil shock happened. It ended DESPITE Volcker making it worse with his interest rate policy when the price of oil came back down.

But, economists like to think they “solved the crisis”.