Home Forums Hunting & Shooting Hunter's Campfire This recession is taking a long time to get here

This administration and its supporters keep talking about these “numbers” and how great they are. We are paying double for everything we buy. My elderly father has taken a part time job to stay afloat and a good number of people I know have taken second jobs to get by. Almost everyone I know is poorer, considerably so, under this administration. Those numbers don’t mean a f u c king thing to real people.

Everyone that I know who had savings in the bank in 2020 has less now. I know lots of people who weren't in debt that are now. Many of the jobs available are low paying and or part time. It doesn't feel to me like things are doing that great. Most things are way more expensive and some things are still difficult to get even if you are willing to pay more. Big businesses are intentionally limiting production of some things to meet esg goals.

Or budget expenses have increased by $1700 a month for a family of 5 since Biden stole the Whitehouse. Yes, I'm still sure they cheated. My grocery costs are up 50% and my fuel costs are double. I spent 50% more a month at Costco on dogfood and household supplies. My insurance has gone up on everything and my property taxes are double.

I'm glad I was out of debt and had 4 paid off vehicles and my homes paid off when this happened or we would be struggling to get by too. I think many people were in pretty good shape before the coup happened so they are still treading water but they are starting to go under.

I have had more people asking for financial help or telling me financial problems lately than I did after 2008. At least after 2008 even though the job market was tough housing was affordable and rates were headed down. Now the cost of debt is considerabe and housing is super expensive everywhere.

We may keep limping along for a while but we are one black swan event away from really bad times in a very unstable world with imbeciles for leaders.

Bb

The most forecast recession in history didn’t pan out? I’m shocked!

It’s coming but if you’re trying to position for it like everyone else there’s going to be a lot of pain first.

Exactly. Folks that have no idea on whats actually happening in the real world. I run a large service department and we are tied to a large group of like businesses around the country. We have meetings twice a year and do monthly reports. Every damn one in the group is down. Sales are down 25-50%. Prices are beginning to crash on RVs and dealers are selling at a loss at times to move old product. Our foot and phone traffic is down well over 50%. We are set to have the worst year in sales in the 25 years Ive been employed. Once again, everyone in our group is experiencing this. Not sure why this stuff is even being debated on here. Expect it from democrats, but the right guys are doing it as well. Wake he fugg up people. Its not good out there and the real bad stuff is coming. Burying your head in the sand or pretending that trump is somehow going to be allowed to win the next election is a recipe for disaster

If anybody believes that the products you buy everyday are only up 10 percent since Bidet got in you are not very bright. Gas and food mainly hurt people but electric bill increases from green power hurt also. Edk

Numbers are numbers.

Gross wages up 6.4%. There's no mention of net wages.

And I have to point out that if the income doubles, inflation doesn't double. 4% stays 4%, no matter the number.

If you drill down in the data, higher income earners are barely seeing increases. Low wage earners have seen large jumps, with employers in the service sector having to spend money on higher wages.

Which is a perfect illustration how over-supplied the labor market is with university degrees, and under supplied with people willing to do work. Lots of truck drivers making more money than lawyers.

If you look closely at the inflation data, a substantial majority of inflation today is caused by the price of housing. There's 1,000,000 apartments under construction in the US right now, the most since 1973. Those kind of numbers are going to have an impact on rents. Commercial real estate already has record low occupancy rates, which will drive some of it to be converted to retail housing. Inflation at the wholesale level is 1.1%. The inflation shocks caused by the Biden Bucks, Covidiocy shut downs and housing demand related to the "not work from home" movement are all fading. Restarting student loans will be the nail in the coffin. Air travel to Europe already costs less than it did 10 years ago.

That puts the economy at full employment and minimal inflation. Which, in my opinion, is the result of the "re-shoring" trend started by the Trump china Tariffs, and accelerated by the covidiocy. Construction of manufacturing space is at at record high right now, which means that any reduction in manufacturing employment is temporary at best, and a result of low demand due to inventory draw downs.

We're starting to see an uptick in transportation volume, the earliest indication of increased manufacturing activity. The NASDAQ is up 30% from it's low (the stock market is a leading indicator). I don't see a recession in the numbers so far, with the caveat that the reduction in commercial lending (particularly commercial real estate) and any FED quantitative tightening are wild cards and there are no good numbers to track there.

Credit card debt has hit the highest number ever in our history. I believe its over 1 trillion now. People are cashing in their 401ks at a rate never seen before. All the signs are there if someone wants to take an honest look at things. Sad that so many cant or chose not to see whats happening. see post above for proof

It will be interesting to see what the restart of paying off student loans will have on the overall economy.

Employment is the indicator. I know it’s propped up by part time and low wage growth, but until it starts to roll significantly it’ll all be nothing but noise

Ok. So groceries, fuel, insurance, and vehicles (tell me anything that doesn’t) cost considerably more than three years ago and things are good because state media says so? Wake the fugk up

Serious question: how are your numbers compared to 2019? RV sales went nuts during the covidiocy.

I'm not seeing any drop in demand on our products, but we're food to retail and restaurants.

I should clarify I’m fully expecting armageddon by next spring. But from a market viewpoint..blow off

Current numbers are way down in every aspect of the business, comparing 2019 to 2023. Now in service, we are slightly up at this point compared to last year. That is directly tied to folks not being able to get out of their current camper. So they are fixing wat they have. Retail is the number that shows that. Its up while warranty is down, same with internal sales numbers, pdi's and sales charges.

I read that 1% kept paying during the "pause" or whatever it was. I'm sure the 99% will start crying when they actually have to start repaying what they borrowed.

The real good stuff is worth waiting for, Dutch. . It is gonna be a doozy!

A reckoning is coming to both the boat and rv industry. I am starting to see rebates on boats, when last year it was a waiting list to get one. Manufacturers have caught up and then some. The cycle continues. Used market will get good.

The problem with these numbers is that they are averages. Housing prices in some parts of the country have been almost stable, while they went completely off the reservation in places like Florida, Texas and Tennessee.

Service workers saw 20% or more wage increases and actually saw small net gains. Most of the wage earners have taken a significant net loss in purchasing power, but again, that depends on where you live and what line of work you are in.

The hiring data I posted is a lagging indicator. Today's JOLTS (Job Opening and Labor Transition Survey) shows a drop in job openings by roughly 500K. That's more of a leading indicator, and shows that there's fewer companies looking for employees. There's actually truck drivers looking for work. I know it's easier to hire now than 12 months ago, but that's not saying much. People can't afford to move here because of housing expense. Until housing costs come back in line with wages, it's near impossible for us to hire.

Agree there. Local boat dealers here are reporting that sales have completely crashed. They have massive rebates, but are still struggling to move items. We have started pre-prepping older model new campers here so sales can same day sell them. They are reduced to below what we paid. Still struggling.

ATV/UTV as well. Our local dealer couldn’t get another unit on the lot unless they start stacking them.

Boom/Bust. It's how we roll.

I see some cracks showing in the housing market in my neck of the woods. 5-600k houses aren't moving with 7.4% mortgages. And yes, everyone thinks that they have a house worth 600k. I figure we are down at least 20% but don't have the sales/data to show it yet. But, if rates drop to even 5.5%, it will explode again.