Christina Harward, Angelica Evans, Grace Mappes, Kateryna Stepanenko, and Frederick W. Kagan
September 27, 2023, 7:45pm ET
Key Takeaways:
Ukrainian forces marginally advanced near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on September 27. The situation near Verbove remains unclear as prominent Russian milbloggers have become noticeably less inclined to report in detail on Russian activity on this frontline or present bad news about Russian failures, while a discussion about reported Russian problems in this area has emerged on the fringes of the Russian information space. Russian media continues to publish inconclusive “proof” that Black Sea Fleet Commander Admiral Viktor Solokov is alive. Ukrainian and Russian confirmations of some former Wagner Group personnel deploying to the Bakhmut area indicate that the Wagner Group is struggling to cohesively reform around new leadership. Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, in Bakhmut, and along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line on September 27 but did not make any confirmed gains. The Guardian reported on September 27 that Iranian drones that Russian forces operate in Ukraine contain European components despite international sanctions. Ukrainian partisans continue to disrupt Russian logistics in occupied Ukraine.
"Russia sucks." ---- Me, US Army (retired) 12B & 51B
Russian Admiral said, after the Moskva sank, "we have the world's worst navy but we aren't as bad as our army".
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 28, 2023
Nicole Wolkov, Angelica Evans, Riley Bailey, Grace Mappes, and Frederick W. Kagan
Key Takeaways:
Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on September 28. Russian forces have reduced the tempo of their localized offensive operations on the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line in recent days. Russian aviation is increasingly active in Kharkiv, Luhansk, and Kherson oblasts and apparently less active in areas of western Zaporizhia Oblast where Ukrainian forces are conducting counteroffensive operations. Russian forces conducted a series of drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of September 27 to 28. Several Russian milbloggers claimed that they self-censor the majority of their reporting amidst an apparent wider self-censorship in Russian reporting about the tactical realities on certain sectors of the front. The Russian State Duma adopted a bill in its first reading that criminalizes promoting and justifying extremism, likely to encourage self-censorship in the Russian information space. Russian President Vladimir Putin signaled his support for Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov during a meeting on September 28 amid continued speculations about Kadyrov’s health and public backlash against the recent behavior of Kadyrov’s son. The Russian information space continued to criticize Armenian leadership and lament Russia’s perceived decreased influence in Armenia. Russian forces conducted offensive operations on the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and did not make confirmed gains. Russian sources stated that the Russian Aerospace (VKS) Forces received a new batch of fifth-generation Su-57 stealth fighter and fourth-generation Su-35S air defense fighter aircraft on September 28. Ukrainian Mariupol Mayoral Advisor Petro Andryushchenko stated on September 28 that Ukrainian partisans set fire to a Russian military facility in occupied Yalta, Donetsk Oblast (21km southwest of Mariupol).
"Russia sucks." ---- Me, US Army (retired) 12B & 51B
Russian Admiral said, after the Moskva sank, "we have the world's worst navy but we aren't as bad as our army".
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 29, 2023
Key Takeaways:
Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast and in the Bakhmut area on September 29. The Russian government announced details about the semi-annual conscription cycle set to begin on October 1 in most of Russia, reportedly including the illegally annexed territories in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Russian Deputy Defense Minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov and former Wagner Group commander and current Ministry of Defense (MoD) employee Andrey Troshev on September 29 signaling that Putin will likely back the MoD in its apparent competing effort with the Russian National Guard (Rosgvardia) to recruit current and former Wagner personnel. The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) is likely supporting amendments to a Russian State Duma bill that would expand its tools of digital authoritarianism to surveil users of Russian internet, banking, and telecom companies. The apparent self-censorship in the wider Russian information space has likely opened the door for some fringe elements to directly criticize and speculate about senior Russian military commanders without pushback. Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced in some areas on September 29. Russia may be continuing attempts to circumvent sanctions through military-technical cooperation with Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) member countries. Russia is relaxing passport controls on Ukrainian citizens leaving and entering Russia likely in an attempt to simplify the movement of Ukrainian citizens to Russia.
"Russia sucks." ---- Me, US Army (retired) 12B & 51B
Russian Admiral said, after the Moskva sank, "we have the world's worst navy but we aren't as bad as our army".
the mercenary Russian Field Commander was a Nazi. Dmitri Utkin has Nazi tattoos all over his body. he and Prigozhin are both Wagner commanders and it is said that Utkin made the Wagner Group.
The Man Called 'Wagner': Dmitry Utkin, The Mercenary Field Commander Reported Dead In Russian Plane Crash
"Wagner is a cruel fellow," a Wagner officer told RFE/RL in 2018, speaking of senior mercenary field commander Dmitry Utkin, whose call sign was "Wagner." "He's no fool."
When a private jet that Russian aviation authorities said was carrying Wagner head Yevgeny Prigozhin crashed on August 23 en route from Moscow to St. Petersburg, Utkin's name was also on the passenger list. All 10 people aboard the plane were killed, Russian authorities said.
The Telegram channel VChK-OGPU, which is believed to be connected with Russian security services, reported that Utkin, described as Wagner's "military commander and head of training" and as "Prigozhin's right hand," had been killed in the crash along with Prigozhin.
Nazi Tattoos
Dmitry Utkin was born in 1970 in the Urals region industrial city of Asbest. In early childhood, Utkin and his mother moved to the village of Smoline in central Ukraine. After graduating from high school, he entered a military academy in Leningrad -- the hometown of Prigozhin and President Vladimir Putin, now called St. Petersburg -- from which he was recruited into the special forces of Russian military intelligence, known as the GRU.
He served in the GRU from 1993 until 2013, fighting in both wars in Chechnya and rising to the rank of lieutenant colonel.
According to numerous accounts by journalists and Wagner fighters, Utkin was enamored of the aesthetics and ideology of Nazi Germany. Photographs of him have appeared showing Nazi tattoos on his chest and shoulders. He adopted the nom de guerre Wagner after Richard Wagner, the 19th-century composer who was a favorite of Adolf Hitler's. He also reportedly practiced a modern form of Slavic paganism called Rodnovery.
In 2013, Utkin began working for the ostensibly private Moran Security Group, a company created by Russian military veterans to provide security, muscle, and military training around the world. The company specialized in combating piracy at sea.
Around the same time, two mercenaries tied to Moran created a Hong Kong-registered group called Slavonic Corps Ltd. to recruit Russians to fight in Syria and provide security for the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Utkin served with the Slavonic Corps, which suffered defeats in battles with Syrian militants. After a battle in which several Slavonic Corps mercenaries were wounded, the Russian military evacuated them to Russia. The two Moran mercenaries who founded the group were detained in Russia by the Federal Security Service (FSB) for illegal mercenary activity.
'Deniable Decoy'
Utkin immediately formed his own mercenary group, Wagner, using his own nom de guerre as the name. He and other Wagner mercenaries were spotted in Ukraine's Crimea region during the Russian seizure of the Black Sea peninsula in early 2014. Later, they fought alongside Russian-backed separatists in parts of Ukraine's eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
According to the open-source investigations group Bellingcat, in 2020, Utkin "was not in the driver's seat" in the formation of Wagner but rather was used as a figurehead and "deniable decoy" to mask Russian-government involvement.
Utkin and his Wagner fighters returned to Syria in 2015 after a period of intense training in Russia's southern Krasnodar region. The group suffered heavy casualties in an offensive in and around Palmyra in March 2016. The Russian government continued to deny it was connected with the mercenaries, although they coordinated closely with the Russian military and were regularly transported on Russian military aircraft.
The connection between the Kremlin and the mercenaries became harder to deny when Utkin was seen attending a lavish Kremlin event in December 2016. He was even photographed with President Vladimir Putin wearing his Order of Courage decoration. When asked what Utkin had been decorated for, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said only: "Usually they give it for courage."
According to some reports, Utkin commanded the Wagner forces during the group's ill-fated attempted mutiny in June, exactly two months before the plane crash. At the time, Igor Girkin, a former Russian intelligence officer who in 2014-15 played a prominent role in anti-Kyiv violence in eastern Ukraine's Donbas, wrote: "I am not acquainted with Utkin's moral qualities, but he definitely has operational talent that he has honed over many years."
Decapitated?
In July 2022, retired Ukrainian intelligence officer Viktor Kelyuk said the Wagner group was attempting a "rebranding," creating a new "private military company" called Liga. Kelyuk told Current Time that the goal of Liga seemed to be to filter out the less-qualified Wagner fighters, including convicts, and create a unit "to carry out more difficult and important tasks."
Utkin, Kelyuk said, was based almost exclusively at the Wagner training center in Russia's Rostov region, which borders Ukraine, working on this project.
"He is not really participating in any combat actions," Kelyuk said.
The deaths of Prigozhin and Utkin, if they are confirmed, would be a "defining moment" for Wagner and its activities in Africa and elsewhere, said journalist Ilya Rozhdestvensky of the Dossier Center investigative group, who described Utkin as the group's "direct field commander."
"That would decapitate the Wagner fighters and leave them de facto without leadership," Rozhdestvensky told Current Time on August 23. "They would have no one to swear loyalty to and would have to seek new employers. In such a case, the Defense Ministry is the most likely candidate."
"Death is not the end," Utkin said in an undated conversation with Prigozhin that has been posted on the Internet. "It is just the beginning of something else."
"Russia sucks." ---- Me, US Army (retired) 12B & 51B
Russian Admiral said, after the Moskva sank, "we have the world's worst navy but we aren't as bad as our army".
the mercenary Russian Field Commander was a Nazi. Dmitri Utkin has Nazi tattoos all over his body. he and Prigozhin are both Wagner commanders and it is said that Utkin made the Wagner Group.
The Man Called 'Wagner': Dmitry Utkin, The Mercenary Field Commander Reported Dead In Russian Plane Crash
"Wagner is a cruel fellow," a Wagner officer told RFE/RL in 2018, speaking of senior mercenary field commander Dmitry Utkin, whose call sign was "Wagner." "He's no fool."
When a private jet that Russian aviation authorities said was carrying Wagner head Yevgeny Prigozhin crashed on August 23 en route from Moscow to St. Petersburg, Utkin's name was also on the passenger list. All 10 people aboard the plane were killed, Russian authorities said.
The Telegram channel VChK-OGPU, which is believed to be connected with Russian security services, reported that Utkin, described as Wagner's "military commander and head of training" and as "Prigozhin's right hand," had been killed in the crash along with Prigozhin.
Nazi Tattoos
Dmitry Utkin was born in 1970 in the Urals region industrial city of Asbest. In early childhood, Utkin and his mother moved to the village of Smoline in central Ukraine. After graduating from high school, he entered a military academy in Leningrad -- the hometown of Prigozhin and President Vladimir Putin, now called St. Petersburg -- from which he was recruited into the special forces of Russian military intelligence, known as the GRU.
He served in the GRU from 1993 until 2013, fighting in both wars in Chechnya and rising to the rank of lieutenant colonel.
According to numerous accounts by journalists and Wagner fighters, Utkin was enamored of the aesthetics and ideology of Nazi Germany. Photographs of him have appeared showing Nazi tattoos on his chest and shoulders. He adopted the nom de guerre Wagner after Richard Wagner, the 19th-century composer who was a favorite of Adolf Hitler's. He also reportedly practiced a modern form of Slavic paganism called Rodnovery.
In 2013, Utkin began working for the ostensibly private Moran Security Group, a company created by Russian military veterans to provide security, muscle, and military training around the world. The company specialized in combating piracy at sea.
Around the same time, two mercenaries tied to Moran created a Hong Kong-registered group called Slavonic Corps Ltd. to recruit Russians to fight in Syria and provide security for the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Utkin served with the Slavonic Corps, which suffered defeats in battles with Syrian militants. After a battle in which several Slavonic Corps mercenaries were wounded, the Russian military evacuated them to Russia. The two Moran mercenaries who founded the group were detained in Russia by the Federal Security Service (FSB) for illegal mercenary activity.
'Deniable Decoy'
Utkin immediately formed his own mercenary group, Wagner, using his own nom de guerre as the name. He and other Wagner mercenaries were spotted in Ukraine's Crimea region during the Russian seizure of the Black Sea peninsula in early 2014. Later, they fought alongside Russian-backed separatists in parts of Ukraine's eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
According to the open-source investigations group Bellingcat, in 2020, Utkin "was not in the driver's seat" in the formation of Wagner but rather was used as a figurehead and "deniable decoy" to mask Russian-government involvement.
Utkin and his Wagner fighters returned to Syria in 2015 after a period of intense training in Russia's southern Krasnodar region. The group suffered heavy casualties in an offensive in and around Palmyra in March 2016. The Russian government continued to deny it was connected with the mercenaries, although they coordinated closely with the Russian military and were regularly transported on Russian military aircraft.
The connection between the Kremlin and the mercenaries became harder to deny when Utkin was seen attending a lavish Kremlin event in December 2016. He was even photographed with President Vladimir Putin wearing his Order of Courage decoration. When asked what Utkin had been decorated for, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said only: "Usually they give it for courage."
According to some reports, Utkin commanded the Wagner forces during the group's ill-fated attempted mutiny in June, exactly two months before the plane crash. At the time, Igor Girkin, a former Russian intelligence officer who in 2014-15 played a prominent role in anti-Kyiv violence in eastern Ukraine's Donbas, wrote: "I am not acquainted with Utkin's moral qualities, but he definitely has operational talent that he has honed over many years."
Decapitated?
In July 2022, retired Ukrainian intelligence officer Viktor Kelyuk said the Wagner group was attempting a "rebranding," creating a new "private military company" called Liga. Kelyuk told Current Time that the goal of Liga seemed to be to filter out the less-qualified Wagner fighters, including convicts, and create a unit "to carry out more difficult and important tasks."
Utkin, Kelyuk said, was based almost exclusively at the Wagner training center in Russia's Rostov region, which borders Ukraine, working on this project.
"He is not really participating in any combat actions," Kelyuk said.
The deaths of Prigozhin and Utkin, if they are confirmed, would be a "defining moment" for Wagner and its activities in Africa and elsewhere, said journalist Ilya Rozhdestvensky of the Dossier Center investigative group, who described Utkin as the group's "direct field commander."
"That would decapitate the Wagner fighters and leave them de facto without leadership," Rozhdestvensky told Current Time on August 23. "They would have no one to swear loyalty to and would have to seek new employers. In such a case, the Defense Ministry is the most likely candidate."
"Death is not the end," Utkin said in an undated conversation with Prigozhin that has been posted on the Internet. "It is just the beginning of something else."
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 30, 2023
Nicole Wolkov, Christina Harward, Angelica Evans, Riley Bailey, and Frederick W. Kagan
Key Takeaways:
Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast and near Bakhmut on September 30. The Kremlin has seemingly not yet clarified what Ukrainian territories it claims that Russia has annexed, leading to continued confusion among Russian government and occupation officials a year after the illegal annexation of occupied territories. Russian forces conducted a series of drone strikes primarily targeting Vinnytsia Oblast on the night of September 29 to 30. Russian milbloggers claimed on September 30 that the Russian military command removed the commander of the Russian 205th Motorized Rifle Brigade following recent outrage from milbloggers about the brigade’s command. An organization with alleged ties to Russian First Deputy Presidential Chief of Staff Sergey Kiriyenko is reportedly categorizing Russian internet user data in an effort to disseminate tailored information to specific domestic populations as part of a wider attempt to control the Russian information space. Russian forces conducted offensive operations near Kupyansk, Kreminna, Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area and marginally advanced along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line. Russian authorities have started to conscript citizens in occupied Ukraine who have Russian passports. Russian authorities continue to forcibly deport children from occupied Ukraine to Russia in order to assimilate Ukrainian children into Russian culture.
"Russia sucks." ---- Me, US Army (retired) 12B & 51B
Russian Admiral said, after the Moskva sank, "we have the world's worst navy but we aren't as bad as our army".
![[Linked Image from sonar21.com]](https://sonar21.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/image-53.png)
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