Home Forums Hunting & Shooting Hunter's Campfire U.S. heading toward recession ?

The 3 B's.

Crazy. PSECU is offering a 10 year car loan now I saw. I could not imagine taking that loan out!

Same/same 75 miles north of you here in the New River Valley

We sold 13acres of basically billygoat land last year for $15k per.

It's fuggin crazy!

Holy CHIT!

Wife and I bought a little 3 acre plot that borders our land for $2500 total a couple years ago. Very happy with that purchase at the current prices

You mean like a load of white Pine? Kidding aside, if you look at the 2 10 fred spread, it shows how the 10 yr. is lower than the 2 yr. and that is backwards. Now it is almost even and when the 10 goes up to more than the 2 yr. there is a recession in a year or so.. It was more inverted this year than sine 1980,, and most remember what happened in 1980.. It happens every time.. We are not in a recession yet.. However, I have been a carpenter in the Milwaukee area for 42 yrs. and I can clearly see it coming. We are already kind of slow. The market seems to be doing really well, it didnt go up much the 1st 2 yrs. of Biden but now its up 25% in 3 yrs. However , it is only a few stocks that went up 80% in a yr. This morning the CPI ( inflation index) came in higher than expected and now the dow is down 300 points premarket, and the nasdaq is getting a pretty good kick. Higher CPI means rates will not come down for longer. The dow is down .8 , S&P is down 1.25% and nasdaq is down 1.75% at the open.

There is 5 acres of rattlesnake prairie just outside town for 65k here. It is half price compared to anything else. 100k might get 2 acres most places.

The WFH trend is petering out. Companies are discovering (re-discovering, really, because this was all studied pretty thoroughly in the ‘80’s) that remote workers aren’t “engaged” with their work. They aren’t able to collaborate as well, groups are less creative, and turnover increases. Many employees feel socially isolated and don’t feel they belong.

The only reason companies aren’t ordering everyone back to the office is that they can’t: a fair portion of the remote workers they hired either can’t, or won’t move so they could work in person. The trend is toward in-office work, because it’s more productive and creates better morale and culture in the long term.

Interesting and thank you for the answer

I don't know but he's busier than maybe he's ever been. But the Hershey area is affluent and it takes longer until we feel the effects here.

I guess I better sell again...

Here on the far left coast, just little harbingers or hints of worse to come. New car sales in the tank, and surprisingly used car sales are a fraction of what they were just two years ago. Construction loan applications are way down. Rural small parcels of land, less than 20 acres, are not selling. One of my renters is a journeyman carpenter, his employer was booked solid a year ago, over half the scheduled big jobs went away, they are down to remodels now to keep his men busy...they hate remodel work. Nearby UPS hub has laid off 20% of their low seniority workers. For the first time in years, no overtime at the sawmill.
Regardless of the big picture factors in the Wall St. economy, these little things reflect a lack of consumer confidence out here in the weeds...and trust me, having experienced the Carter years, that's all that's needed to create recession.

That's how it is up at my hunting camp. I decided I wanted to move to my Camp so I applied for a drywall/painting job at a factory built housing plant in Muncy. 665 people applied for that one job. Even though I've done drywall/ painting all my life I couldn't even get an interview. It was then that I realized I can't move up to Camp. The economy there is too poor

That 5 acres of rattlesnake prairie is 56500. I have actually been eyeballing it.

I realize employment is a lagging indicator, but it’s still impossible to hire someone where we farm, even at $18 an hour plus benefits. And if we could find someone, there’s no housing available. Last time I looked, there’s four rentals listed in the county, and they are not habitable by modern standards.

OMG. Sell sell sell! Btw. This is the same idiot who claimed there was a 99% chance of recession in 2012, and he claimed there was a 75% chance in 2022, so what happened? The simple fact of the matter is economy’s dont come out of a major recession and go back into another recession 1-2 years later. Too many “economists” spend too much time reading graphs and trying to predict recessions via yield curves. Well guess what, you can’t! If you can predict human behavior then and ONLY then can you predict a recession. Btw. Current car rates via my Credit Union are 5.49% and home mortgages are running 6.8%. Oh ya, I just tried to make reservations for the wife and I for date night on Fri and the only thing available is before 5pm or after 8pm. There is nothing available on Saturday until 8:30 and only in the bar. Yup, the economy is tanking. Sell sell sell boys.

🥴

I agree. Everyone should sell, and buy puts with the funds.

If I believed the worst that's headed our way was recession, I'd be on my my knees giving thanks. But, I still have no crystal ball and have adopted the habit of making no predictions.

As far as the work-from-home thing goes, it may recede for reasons cited...BUT, I can say definitively that some jobs that can be done from home are easily tracked for production. My wife sits in her office directly across the hall from me this very moment engaged in her own WFH position, and believe me, her employer knows what she's doing. A 10-hour day is not unusual for her.

I have no idea but with markets at all time highs, tons of Chinese money flooding in, and a government printing massive amounts of money it's hard to see through all the smoke.