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I can understand what you are saying.

Shooting a lever gun with iron sights at 200 yards sure made me realize that it wasn’t nearly as accurate as a scoped model 98 Mauser.

I almost think my compound bow with a peep sight in the string and a good release is more accurate than a freehand lever gun shot at 60 yards.

Last edited by Angus1895; 03/01/24.

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Half the time where I hunt I can hit them what a fuggin rock that I throw. So hitting the target usually isn't an issue. There are exceptions of course.


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As I've gotten older, I am surprised on how many heart shots I end up making on a deer each year.

Figure getting older, I'd be a lousier shot.... but maybe experience does count for something.

As I've aged, I can actually get a shot off quicker. Could be the time I spend at the range and also the time and number of ground squirrels I waste about each spring... get something between 5000 to 8000 rounds at them on a summer when I have the time to over to K Falls to shoot them.

Come fall deer season, a deer is a pretty big looking target, even if one the move...

guess varmint shooting in large numbers on small targets has helped me get much more proficient, even if I am getting older and theoretically slower in moving...


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Guess it would depend on how hungry I was.


Small Game, Deer, Turkey, Bear, Elk....It's what's for dinner.

If you know how many guns you own... you don't own enough.

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Originally Posted by Pinnah
Originally Posted by Teal
The vitals of a deer being the size of a basketball - would have to be really bad rifle not to hit them at average deer hunting ranges.

The problem is for me, that traditional 3 shot groups aren't sufficient in determining if a rifle is good, bad, or really bad and what the chance of making a clean shot is at different distances.

I've gotten a few 3 shot groups from my lever gun under an inch. Best was 3/4". Sounds good right?

But, when aggregating 20 on the same target:
  • The mean radius is 1.46, which means 50% of shots can be predicted to fall inside of a 3" circle.
  • The extreme spread (i.e. group size) is 5.2".
  • The R95 is 3.1, which means 95% of shots can be predicted to fall inside of a 6.2" circle.


When you add the error for rise and drop of the trajectories for different zero points (e.g., 100 yds, 110 yds, 120 yds) and assume a point blank center hold, then off the bench, the gun could be expected to hit a basketball or pie plate with 95% out to about 125 yds. And at 200 yds, the R95 tells us that 95% of the shots should be in a 12.5" circle. That is, long shots don't give me a high hit percentage even if I had a perfect zero dialed in and was shooting from the bench.

Now... I don't want to drag people into a long discussion about how to best determine the accuracy of a gun (although, I'm fine with that). What I really would like to know is what other hunters think is "good enough" on hit likelihoods.I'm pretty conservative and view my lever gun as a 100 to 125 yd gun, which is fine for my uses in the woods. But I can't see using it to hunt meadows and power lines.

What likelihood do you expect from your deer guns?

Young man, I warn you... by telling incontrovertible truth backed with solid numbers...you are risking shunning, hate and discontent here on the campfire. Cherry picked three shot groups on here are no less than Biblical Canon Law...not to be questioned...by mere mortals.
Myself, a proponent of one coldbore shot each day for a few days, although not yet banned, have been accused of gay sex with all manner of circus animals.


Well this is a fine pickle we're in, should'a listened to Joe McCarthy and George Orwell I guess.
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Originally Posted by Teal
EVERY group group I shoot, I expect and strive for the groups POI to match POA or within about .3 to .5mil at 100yds - give or take.

To make sure I'm understanding, assuming you are properly zeroed, if you were to take 20 cold bore shots and mark them all on the same target, you would expect that (nearly) all (say, 95%) of them to land inside a circle with a .5 mil radius (approximately 1.8") at 100 yds, yes?

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Originally Posted by Pinnah
Originally Posted by Teal
EVERY group group I shoot, I expect and strive for the groups POI to match POA or within about .3 to .5mil at 100yds - give or take.

To make sure I'm understanding, assuming you are properly zeroed, if you were to take 20 cold bore shots and mark them all on the same target, you would expect that (nearly) all (say, 95%) of them to land inside a circle with a .5 mil radius (approximately 1.8") at 100 yds, yes?

Yes - at the outside, that's essentially it


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I shoot a lot of pigs, helps my deer shooting a lot

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I've got several sporter-weight hunting rifles that I consider "fairly accurate" and reliable for some of my longer-range scenarios, which offer shots out to 400-450 yards. Yearly zero check is generally going straight to a 2MOA stenciled circle on a 300yd or 400yd gong for a cold bore shot. If it's landing rather close to the center, I'm satisfied with the zero check and am ready for hunting. I know I have one rifle that's only been given a click or two of adjustment in probably 15 years. And that is not to say that rifles don't get shot at other times of the year, but I generally try to shoot everything in early October so I know all the rifles are 100% ready.


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Originally Posted by flintlocke
Young man, I warn you... by telling incontrovertible truth backed with solid numbers...you are risking shunning, hate and discontent here on the campfire. Cherry picked three shot groups on here are no less than Biblical Canon Law...not to be questioned...by mere mortals.
Myself, a proponent of one coldbore shot each day for a few days, although not yet banned, have been accused of gay sex with all manner of circus animals.

So, circus animals like you, if you do your part? whistle

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I try...but it's hard to get next to a hedgehog. Snork.


Well this is a fine pickle we're in, should'a listened to Joe McCarthy and George Orwell I guess.
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Originally Posted by 10gaugemag
The arrow is the only thing taken I to consideration.

What calculates the ability of the Indian?
Reckon the arrow dictates the ability of the Indian.

Results speak for themselves.

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Pinnah: 100% hit in the heart/lungs for me to continue.
Hold into the wind
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Funny story on the cold bore one shot scenario, I’m at the range this October, amongst other toys were the two rifles on deck for the November hunting season.

Both (.270 Win and 6.5 PRC) rifles had been thoroughly rung out as recently as September so I figured punch one round at 100 yards as a final check. Both printed exactly where I had expected so I put them away and my son and I kept playing with the other toys on hand.

During the next ceasefire a gentleman came up and asked “did you just fire one shot groups?” I replied in the affirmative and explained the guns had been thoroughly rung out a few weeks before and the one shot “groups” were just a final check.

“But they were only one shot groups?!?” With a mildly confused look upon his face. I restated my rational once more to hear “But they were only one shot groups?!?!” With an increasingly confused look on his face.

“Yes” says I and put on my ear pro as the terminus to the conversation and the dude walks away shaking his head. 😃😃

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Originally Posted by GRF
I’ll play.

I shoot a good deal of jugs and steel plate at distances from 200 to 450 yards throughout the spring to early fall.

Distance on game with a particular rifle is limited to the ranges where I was 100% successful during the final weeks of practice. Meaning I hit the jug or the painted circle on the plate first time and every time.

Reality of course is more challenging than practice, so I am accepting a less than 100% chance of success, but I am shooting under conditions where I have assessed my equipment and skill sets as being up to the task.

My methodology is similar.

What's missing form the OPs question are the environmentals/conditions. Benchrest accuracy of the rifle/ammo at a known distance is just one factor.

I do quite a bit of practicing from field positions, as my backyard range goes out to 760yds, with 545 yds off my back deck.

The conditions, wind etc. and the type of rest/stability have a much great impact on my hit probabilities than the actual accuracy of my rifle/ammo combination. When it comes to rest, this image which was designed to help guys choose the appropriate TGT size in conjunction with support and distance, does a pretty decent job describing the relationship of stability to accuracy:

[Linked Image from i.imgur.com]

It's designed for rimfires, but you can see the relationship.

In my case accuracy degrades as stability degrades, and the closer I am to the ground the more stable I am. I'm better prone with front and rear support, than I am just prone. Sitting; I'm better off a tripod than I am just off my backpack. Sitting with a tripod, clamped in with my backpack in my lap as an elbow rest almost rivals prone, etc. etc.

I like to be at least 90% sure of my shot, based on the conditions, which include my rest. So based on my rest and the conditions I might be confident out to 600yds, change up the wind, make it variable, add a less than ideal rest and I might be confident to 300yds with the same rifle ammo combo.

The only way to know is to practice.


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Originally Posted by Pinnah
Suppose your scope could calculate and display your hit likelihood in the vitals of a deer based on distance and the accuracy of your gun/ammo system.

What would you consider to be a minimum hit likelihood?

100% (always make the shot)
90% (9 out of 10 hits)
75% (3 out of 4)
67% (2 out of 3)
50% (1 out 2)

It's irrelevant. First off, I came of age deer hunting on Planet 4 MOA with a smoothbore shotgun. Maybe other guys were shooting at 300 yards, but I played it safe and normally hunted out of my bow stands. I think my longest shot on a deer with a shotgun was 20 yards, and when I switched to rifle, it was about the same. I only started pulling the trigger at longer ranges fairly late in my hunting career. Until 20 years ago, my longest shot was about 80 yards. My longest shot to date is 200 yards, taken in 2022. Whenever I pulled the trigger, I was dead-nuts certain I was hitting the boiler room. I've been proved wrong by deflections, but not from improper aim.

Growing up on Planet 4 MOA, I learned the worst thing is to shoot above your weight. Goat rodeos are grueling. It is far better to wait for a stupid gimme shot than it is to go flinging lead and then spend the rest of the morning looking for a spot of blood.


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4th reply look what he got, a selfish clod who buys all the .22 ammo he doesn't need and comes here to brag about it as if it's worthy of adulation. Will never admit to being part of the cause of shortage or high prices, a real gentleman indeed !

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Originally Posted by Pinnah
Suppose your scope could calculate and display your hit likelihood in the vitals of a deer based on distance and the accuracy of your gun/ammo system.

What would you consider to be a minimum hit likelihood?

100% (always make the shot)
90% (9 out of 10 hits)
75% (3 out of 4)
67% (2 out of 3)
50% (1 out 2)


Are you a chick? This is the kind of hypothetical schitt they come up with....


"...the left considers you vermin, and they'll kill you given the chance..." Bristoe
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Originally Posted by ingwe
Originally Posted by Pinnah
Suppose your scope could calculate and display your hit likelihood in the vitals of a deer based on distance and the accuracy of your gun/ammo system.

What would you consider to be a minimum hit likelihood?

100% (always make the shot)
90% (9 out of 10 hits)
75% (3 out of 4)
67% (2 out of 3)
50% (1 out 2)


Are you a chick? This is the kind of hypothetical schitt they come up with....

Right on Tom.


It is irrelevant what you think. What matters is the TRUTH.
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Originally Posted by GRF
Funny story on the cold bore one shot scenario, I’m at the range this October, amongst other toys were the two rifles on deck for the November hunting season.

Both (.270 Win and 6.5 PRC) rifles had been thoroughly rung out as recently as September so I figured punch one round at 100 yards as a final check. Both printed exactly where I had expected so I put them away and my son and I kept playing with the other toys on hand.

During the next ceasefire a gentleman came up and asked “did you just fire one shot groups?” I replied in the affirmative and explained the guns had been thoroughly rung out a few weeks before and the one shot “groups” were just a final check.

“But they were only one shot groups?!?” With a mildly confused look upon his face. I restated my rational once more to hear “But they were only one shot groups?!?!” With an increasingly confused look on his face.

“Yes” says I and put on my ear pro as the terminus to the conversation and the dude walks away shaking his head. 😃😃

You had already proven precision to your satisfaction with groups. You just wanted to confirm the first shot would land where the crosshairs said it should. Makes perfect sense to me. I have my grandfather's old Remington 740 30-06. It doesn't group very well by today's standards but it puts that first shot where it needs to go. It fires one shot and something dies, so it still gets the job done.

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