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Joined: Apr 2023
Posts: 32
Campfire Greenhorn
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Campfire Greenhorn
Joined: Apr 2023
Posts: 32 |
And the point of your question is ? Sure. I've been playing around with doing some testing with larger sample sizes and using a phone app to record and analyze the results. I'm wanting to better understand what my rifle/ammo combination is capable of off the bench before I add the loose nut behind the trigger, so to speak. To create these larger groups, I shoot 3 shots from a cold barrel, let the gun cool completely, then repeat the process until I've got 12 to 20-some shots on the same paper with the same point of aim. With larger numbers of shots, you get more statistically significant results. And with the phone apps available that do all the math, you can get more insightful metrics for accuracy. The primary one is mean radius (MR), which is the average distance of each impact from the group's center. Roughly speaking, this is the radius of the circle for which 50% of the shots can be expected to land. The second is the R95 value, which is the radius of the circle for which 95% of the shots can be expected to land. The results for my Win94 lever gun have been sobering, particularly if the goal for ethical hunting is a 95% hit probability (in the best of circumstances). In effect, my gun is limited in range by its accuracy more than its trajectory or its terminal velocity. All of this begs the question I asked. I wonder what sort of confidence level people expect from their hunting rifles. 100%, 95%, 75%, 50%? At what point would people take pass? You are way overthinking this in my opinion. I’m 74 and have been deer hunting since the sixties and (knock wood) I have never lost a deer. I only take shots I’m comfortable making, but I don’t go through any analysis, I just know. Most of my shots are from 30 to 150 yards, many of them offhand. I have taken shots up to 300 plus, but off a solid rest. It’s really not rocket science, it’s just muscle memory and a kind of, almost subconscious sight picture analysis. Your question is kind of like asking an experienced wing shooter how much he should lead a duck on a crossing shot at 40 yards versus a canvasback? I have no idea, I just swing through the bird and my brain sends a signal to my finger without any conscious thought from me.John, I really, really like your response, particularly the part bolded. This is how I shot as well and why I tell new guys joining our rifle team to err on the side of lower scope power and to stay clear of super high powers. I use 8x on standard NRA targets whether at 50 feet (3 position shooting) or 200 yds (high power off hand matches). Anything higher than that and it's too much wobble (visual noise) and the wobble forces me to be concentrate as opposed to letting the shot break subconsciously when the lower power (and easier to process) sight picture is present. But, I think we're talking about 2 different things. My original question is about our confidence in our gun, not our confidence in our shooting ability. Both are important but I'm wondering about the gun. Here's an example. I have 10" steel plates at 100 yds and 200 yds I use for practice. If I miss the target at 200 with my (accurate) bolt gun, it's entirely on me. I've done enough testing and analysis that the gun to know that it will hit within 1.5" or less of POA 95% of the time. On the other hand, my (inaccurate) lever gun holds a 5" group over 20 shots at 100 (and sometimes sub 1" over three shots). This means the gun will put the bullet within 6" of POA at 200. That's a 12" circle assuming a perfect hold. Even without any aiming error, I can't count on that gun making a hit at 200 on a 10" vital zone. Do I overthink? I'm a card carrying member of the overthinker's union. But on the other hand, I'm not over optimistic about my guns ability. I won't look at the several 1" groups I've gotten out of my lever gun as assume it'll hold 2" at 200 and take that shot. That's a misplaced over confidence in the gun.
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Joined: Dec 2015
Posts: 8,295
Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Dec 2015
Posts: 8,295 |
got a question for the guy who started this post = so if i am at 100 % on my ethical shots on deer and i take one shot and kill 2 deer where does that put me on the chart ?
LIFE NRA , we vote Red up here, Norseman
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Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 28,251 Likes: 6
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 28,251 Likes: 6 |
got a question for the guy who started this post = so if i am at 100 % on my ethical shots on deer and i take one shot and kill 2 deer where does that put me on the chart ? That puts you in the "not paying attention to what's in the background" category. If you don't have two tags, you're also in the illegal category.
It is irrelevant what you think. What matters is the TRUTH.
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Joined: Dec 2015
Posts: 8,295
Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Dec 2015
Posts: 8,295 |
got a question for the guy who started this post = so if i am at 100 % on my ethical shots on deer and i take one shot and kill 2 deer where does that put me on the chart ? That puts you in the "not paying attention to what's in the background" category. If you don't have two tags, you're also in the illegal category. > i always have my all year long farmer tag ! with a wink
LIFE NRA , we vote Red up here, Norseman
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Joined: Oct 2014
Posts: 71
Campfire Greenhorn
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Campfire Greenhorn
Joined: Oct 2014
Posts: 71 |
And the point of your question is ? Sure. I've been playing around with doing some testing with larger sample sizes and using a phone app to record and analyze the results. I'm wanting to better understand what my rifle/ammo combination is capable of off the bench before I add the loose nut behind the trigger, so to speak. To create these larger groups, I shoot 3 shots from a cold barrel, let the gun cool completely, then repeat the process until I've got 12 to 20-some shots on the same paper with the same point of aim. With larger numbers of shots, you get more statistically significant results. And with the phone apps available that do all the math, you can get more insightful metrics for accuracy. The primary one is mean radius (MR), which is the average distance of each impact from the group's center. Roughly speaking, this is the radius of the circle for which 50% of the shots can be expected to land. The second is the R95 value, which is the radius of the circle for which 95% of the shots can be expected to land. The results for my Win94 lever gun have been sobering, particularly if the goal for ethical hunting is a 95% hit probability (in the best of circumstances). In effect, my gun is limited in range by its accuracy more than its trajectory or its terminal velocity. All of this begs the question I asked. I wonder what sort of confidence level people expect from their hunting rifles. 100%, 95%, 75%, 50%? At what point would people take pass? You are way overthinking this in my opinion. I’m 74 and have been deer hunting since the sixties and (knock wood) I have never lost a deer. I only take shots I’m comfortable making, but I don’t go through any analysis, I just know. Most of my shots are from 30 to 150 yards, many of them offhand. I have taken shots up to 300 plus, but off a solid rest. It’s really not rocket science, it’s just muscle memory and a kind of, almost subconscious sight picture analysis. Your question is kind of like asking an experienced wing shooter how much he should lead a duck on a crossing shot at 40 yards versus a canvasback? I have no idea, I just swing through the bird and my brain sends a signal to my finger without any conscious thought from me.John, I really, really like your response, particularly the part bolded. This is how I shot as well and why I tell new guys joining our rifle team to err on the side of lower scope power and to stay clear of super high powers. I use 8x on standard NRA targets whether at 50 feet (3 position shooting) or 200 yds (high power off hand matches). Anything higher than that and it's too much wobble (visual noise) and the wobble forces me to be concentrate as opposed to letting the shot break subconsciously when the lower power (and easier to process) sight picture is present. But, I think we're talking about 2 different things. My original question is about our confidence in our gun, not our confidence in our shooting ability. Both are important but I'm wondering about the gun. Here's an example. I have 10" steel plates at 100 yds and 200 yds I use for practice. If I miss the target at 200 with my (accurate) bolt gun, it's entirely on me. I've done enough testing and analysis that the gun to know that it will hit within 1.5" or less of POA 95% of the time. On the other hand, my (inaccurate) lever gun holds a 5" group over 20 shots at 100 (and sometimes sub 1" over three shots). This means the gun will put the bullet within 6" of POA at 200. That's a 12" circle assuming a perfect hold. Even without any aiming error, I can't count on that gun making a hit at 200 on a 10" vital zone. Do I overthink? I'm a card carrying member of the overthinker's union. But on the other hand, I'm not over optimistic about my guns ability. I won't look at the several 1" groups I've gotten out of my lever gun as assume it'll hold 2" at 200 and take that shot. That's a misplaced over confidence in the gun. Thanks for the thoughtful response. I might get kicked off the forum for admitting this, but I’m not one of those rifle guys who shoots thousands of rounds every year. I own six, really nice old school wood and blued steel bolt action rifles and a family heirloom 99 Savage 300 that I kind of rotate through over the years. I hand load and shoot the bare minimum to work up a good hunting load, then sight in the rifle. For the last seven years I’ve only used one rifle for all my deer and antelope hunting, a Dennis Olson custom.257 Roberts mountain rifle. Even though I don’t shoot hundreds of rounds through it, I have total confidence that, if I miss it’s not the rifles fault. A bolt action rifle is a relatively simple mechanical device, that if well maintained should perform flawlessly.
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