Home Forums Hunting & Shooting Hunter's Campfire Greece to Default ??

What in the he!! do Obama's "handler's" have to do with this. Other than the Fed and its minions being involved both directly and indirectly, Obama has nothing to do with this. It's the banks, pure and simple.

Other than Obama getting financial support from them-although much less so now that Romney is in the game-that is a peripheral connection at best.

The Fed takes no orders from either Congress or the Executive. They are on their own program without any oversight which is one of the reasons for unlimited non defined swap lines to the Euro banks, a good portion of which are Primary Dealers, and thus shareholder's of the Fed.

You seem to not understand that the Marxists/Socialists are in direct control of the World's Finances, their executive branches of govt and Congress. The US Fed takes their orders from the same Handlers. Obviously you are one of the ones that also takes orders from them. So I will forgive your ignorance on the matter.

I wasn't clear, sorry. "Look for oil" in Greece is what I meant, meaning a way to quickly attract investment/develop wealth. Tourism and nude beaches alone won't save them.

Blow me. I can guarantee that I have a greater understanding of economics/finance/monetary theory than you ever thought about having.

I'm waiting for the patience of Germany and France to wear thinner and tell them to go and start printing the Drachma. I don't see pro austerity plan parades or rallies. Just the commie union influenced "Occupy Athens" mobs.

When the "takers" realize the gravy train is empty - what else are they going to do? Find work? No, burn, pillage and loot. We better pray to God we can straighten our mess out here.

Olive oil! Don't forget the olive oil.

Greece already defaulted, having missed many debt payments.

As Mike pointed out, the ISDA controls the reigns of CDS kicking in. Since the IB's that write the CDS make up the committee who determines is a default is a default in CDS terms, what makes anyone think they will ever allow that to happen?

Since people who bought CDS will quickly figure out they were taken and now have NO protection against Soverign debt, several things will happen......

One is, no one will buy CDS, or any other swap "insurance" and get scammed by these banksters. Face it, this multi trillion $$ industry has no intention of paying anyone anything. Another, is who will buy soverign debt with no protection from default?

QE3 to infinity.....

Coming to a currency near you...SOON.....

Tony

I wonder how much money is tied up in Greece from American banks? Guess we'll find out soon enough! Then the great black hope can bail Greece out too!

Dude, whatever it is you are smoking up in the never-never lands of Ak., you had better stop...

Tony

Right now, the 5 major US IB's are in fact stealth-bankrupt.

Tony

Marxism/socialism are mere tools of the banks to more efficiently harvest the wealth of a nation's middle class, while simultaneously acquiring political control.

Here's an article on Reuters. Potential market impact of a Greek default

Likely the value of the dollar will increase, so oil and gold prices will drop some. If the European stock markets take a big dip, many investors will have a second chance to make lots of money by getting in after the drop. They only need to look at the drop and recovery of the U.S. stock market to see a tremendous opportunity to make lots of money.

Of course, if they have their money in gold, they'll have to sell it to take advantage of this rare opportunity. As with any commodity, the risk of holding gold is that the market price may drop. Being Gold's value is primarily as a hedge investment, once investors feel they can make a lot of money in the markets they'll get out of gold and they know that once the price starts to drop it will drop fast and far, which will turbo-charge the sell off. Maybe I'm wrong, but you only need to look at housing prices over the last 20 years to see that this is what a bubble looks like.

Ok, I read all the thread and although I didnt understand everything I read, what is wrong with this possiblity?

If/When Greece defaults on their debt, the worlds banking will all take a hit, because they are so inter-twinded, dependent on each other, etc. because of international banking.

This will put a hurt on the banking sector, their stock will decline, thus people will be looking for an outlet that is safe and the price of gold will increase rather quickly.

Greece's debut is less than what Obama spent on the stimulus plan, so it's not going to do much damage on its own. In fact, as fears of such a default loom, investors move money to U.S. treasuries, which is why the 10-year yield is so low. The risk is that the default won't stop at Greece, but the advantage of everyone using play money is that there can be no real shortage of it.

What gold hoarders (not investors) envision is a collapse of the world-wide economic system, but that would result in the starvation of hundreds of millions if not billions of people. Do you really think that many people are going to sacrifice themselves rather than continue to accept play money and go about their comfortable lives?

Modern economies are based as much in the minds of people as they are in reality. That's also true of gold. You can't eat it, burn it to cook your food or keep you warm, and it doesn't make good clothing, tools or machinery. The idea that it has value is just that, an idea. There's no physical reality to "value" nor a scientific means of measuring value. The value of paper money is just as real in modern societies because the idea of it is engrained in our minds from early childhood.

As ants use chemicals to organize individuals into productive endeavors, humans use money to do the same thing in what we call an economy. Money is really just a means of communication, which is why it can be sent electronicly in any amount.

What's wrong with this possibility is that it has what is known as "chained risk". A default in Greece could lead to a daisy chain of defaults in banks within Europe, and trigger Credit Default Swaps (insurance) that four of our largest banks have written against a default in Greece.

Even if the ISDA (International Swaps and Derivatives Association) deems that a default has NOT occurred, the market for debt instruments could decide otherwise, thus causing losses in ALL bonds issued by weaker sovereigns such as Portugal, Ireland, Spain, et al, and would call into question the value of any paper without specific collateral backing it up.

If that happens you get declines in the equities of the financial institutions involved. Since finance is more than half of all the players on most stock markets, a major decline could occur there too. A simultaneous decline in both bond and equities markets is the worst of all worlds, especially for those with fiduciary obligations such as pension plans and insurance companies, especially if they have exposure to any of the players involved either through bond issues or equity holdings.

In essence what you get is a collapse of the world's financial system brought about by a lack of confidence that no paper issued by ANYONE is worth what it's printed upon.

That's what is at stake, and unfortunately, is inevitable at some point.

Before governments allow the world's major economies to collapse they'll suspend trading and create whatever liquidity is needed using obfuscation techniques that few will understand. And being the alternative is mass suicide, the public will accept the free money with little question. Being money and the value it represents is just an idea, there's no violation of physical laws that eventually have to balance out, so the inevitability of collapse is but a dream.

A dream is a dream but I dream better knowing I have more gold than paper. Though I can barely pay for fuel bills and my things that need money, I also don't think I have anything to worry about with the future and will die with plenty of gold to trade for most of what I need. To us along the river, gold is more than a hedge, it is the number 1 thing that keeps everyone busy and digging or trading out.

Owning gold as a hedge investment is fine within reason as long as you understand the risk of buying a commodity that's well into bubble market prices. If you're buying gold expecting a widespread collapse of the economy you're living a bad dream. If such a collapse occurred you would be far better off having invested in 25-year shelf-life food. You'll be able to trade such food for anything you need. People with gold will show up and you'll be able to trade with them and dictate the price because you really don't need their gold but they need your food.

You got to understand that with the collapse of our economy our complex agricultural, transportation and distribution system will cease to exist as we know it. There will only be enough food for maybe 25% of the population on a long term basis. If you really think the government is going to let that happen due to funny money problems, then the most valuable thing you can have is food.

Short of an economic collapse a far less risky hedge against inflation are TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities). The best way to do so is to invest in a fund that purchase TIPS such a Vanguard's VIPSX fund. With such a fund you'll get a small return in addition to the rate of inflation. You don't need a fancy trading account. Simply open or move your IRA to a full service bank like Wells Fargo and you can invest in a wide variety of funds and make lots of free trades.

At some point the U.S. may intentionally monetize its debt, yet allow citizens to retain their wealth though various means such as TIPS (the Brazilian plan). The world won't like it, but if it comes down to a choice between economic collapse, which amounts to mass suicide, or monetizing the debt, you shouldn't have to guess which choice the American public will overwhelmingly support. Buying gold at bubble prices is betting people will choose mass suicide.

Blows my mind to see some one mention the perils of Gold and then suggest a bond fund at this juncture. Especially one with a new fund manager and zero diversification.
The whole Caveat I see in this statement;
"If such a collapse occurred you would be far better off having invested in 25-year shelf-life food"
Is the word **IF** because **IF** that doesn't happen Gold will be a vastly better investment irrespective of what price point you bought in at. Not that I'm advocating hoarding any time, or buying at least until we see a pull back.
As with most things Balance is the order of the day. Every investment portfolio should have some Gold. Ideally ten %. This is the same thing I said for years on the fire. I greatly prefer physical gold to the GLD but to each his own.
The greater problem I see with individual investors every day is pi** poor planning. No one wanted to buy metal at record lows just a few years ago. Now people want to chase performance. No one wanted bonds a few years back when rates were favorable. Now they want to flock to the fallacy of "safety".
The absolute epitome of poor timing on each end.

Diversification is best left to the individual investor, and TIPS are not like ordinary bonds. The fund manager may be new to Vanguard, but she has over 30 years experience in bond markets and inflation-linked securities.



That's wishful thinking on your part. If the **IF** does't happen it's just as likely as not that gold will go back to being the poor investment relative to stocks as it was for the 30 years prior to 2005. In the next 5 years gold could be back in the $700 oz range and stay in that area for decades. You only need to look at the following graph to see the risk of buying gold at current prices.