Home Forums Hunting & Shooting Hunter's Campfire What is the deal with gold and silver?

I sold my 100 oz bar on good Friday....45.50

I agree, when you chase momentum is when you get burned.

If I was strong in gold or silver I'd be selling now.

That's good... when I bought/sold silver and gold for a living I wouldn't pay spot for 100 oz bars because they're not as re-salable as smaller bars. I advise people not to buy anything larger than 10 oz bars.

Bernanke was speaking before Congress today. It usually has big jumps one way or the other when he speaks before Congress. People take what he says one way or the other, and then react by buying or selling gold and silver.

Exactly, but then you have guys like my Dad that Gold could hit $3000 an ounce and he would be waiting to see $4000. What goes up will come down.

It was a gift from my Parents about 20 years ago, I asked my Dad what he paid for it, I believe he said about 5.50 an ounce.

Bubbles burst.

Stock market, real estate, commodities.

There's always a bubble somewhere. smart money buys low, and sells during the bubbles.

The small investor is probably the worse at buying on fear (creating a bubble), and selling on fear (when the sector is crashing).

Something to be said for being "contrarian" in investment strategies, but that is hard for small investors to stomach. The big-time, old-money investors are way ahead of the curve.

Neither does cash, which, like gold and silver is MONEY. You can make interest on your gold and silver if you lend it out at interest, the same way that you can your cash.

In the current market NO Treasury paper, if you take into account inflation and after tax ROI, is giving a return. One advantage that PHYSICAL gold and silver have over any paper is lack of counterparty risk, which in this world of banks and governments routinely breaking contract law as it suits them, is a very important advantage. Think that your paper investments and government paper are safe? I give you MF Global, GM and Chrysler bonds, and Greek bonds, just to name the most recent.

Everyone on this site, and on any other site, financial or otherwise, who has called a top in the price and ongoing bull market in precious metals has been proven wrong EVERY time, and will be again. With the $hitstorm that is getting ready to break over the Greek default, the one harbor in that storm will be precious metals. It will be the "last man standing".

Keep your paper, I'll stick to real money.

Not one post in this thread is anywhere close to correct on gold and silver.

You are ALL wrong, and have been since $248 and $4.50.

And you will all still be wrong all the way to the top of the gold and silver market.

Thanks for the chuckle...

Tony

OOPS....I posted at the same time as Mike...he isn't wrong.

You would ALL be better served changing the way you think about gold....at this point in time, it is NOT a commodity, but is in fact a currency.

Until you realize that fact, you won't get it.

Tony

Yup.

I notice when the Eight Ball in the WH speaks markets go screwy as well. Usually DOWM!!!!

Your dad is spot on. Buy, don't sell, the dips. There's no reasonable scenario whereby gold doesn't keep going up.

Gold and silver aren't in a bubble. Federal Reserve Notes are in a huge bubble, however, and when that bubble bursts you won't be able to lay your hands on gold or silver for any price in Federal Reserve Notes.

Bernanke is what was going on. You can transpose the EUR/USD price quote directly on top of the AG/USD candlestick charts. Good old Ben, pumped up the economy by raising the 2011 GDP from 1.7% to 3%. He gave no key words to indicate a QE3 but didn't say NO either. The markets and banks don't like that. They like "free money" from the Fed in which they buy T bonds and are reluctant to lend. The US dollar gained 1.25 cents against the EU. A penny + doesn't seem much but when you are talking trillions, its pretty significant. So when the US dollar can show a "safe haven" status, gold and silver usually drop. Even some shut down their oil contracts and it dropped the price also. It was a great day to use as a buying opportunity. PM's were on sale which may continue as drops like this can spur "margin calls" for those holding contracts. The "sale" could continue!

When the Fed stops increasing the money supply,...when manufacturing cranks up enough to start growing the economy,...when the budget is balanced,..then maybe it will be time to think about getting out of precious metals.

None of that is going to happen, however.

The manipulations will continue to make monetary matters ebb and flow,..but manipulations don't alter the fundamentals.

Yes. As long as Obama and the Fed continue to use Keynesian economic theory to get us out of the recession, the dollar will continue to buy less. How much less? The inflation calculator says that what a $1 bought in 1965 now buys 15 cents. Bernanke is creating dollars out of paper to spur economic growth. All it is doing is helping to build an inflation bubble in which the Fed most likely will have no clue when to turn off the spigot. "Core Inflation" is still quoted as 2%. However they DO NOT take into account food and energy costs. Why? Because they are too volatile says the CBO. A potential QE3 is still in the cards if REAL economic growth starts to look bad for Obama. There is a little event occurring on November 6, 2012.

It's the unreasonable scenario's that bite you in the ass.

I see gold at 1300 by 3Q.

Even if the "price" of gold goes down, and the deflationist camp is correct, the beauty of PHYSICAL metals is that they have no counterparty risk, and are therefore incapable of default. They also tend to keep their purchasing power intact in either inflationary or deflationary conditions. A barrel of oil in 1971 was .072 oz of gold. Now, it's .065 oz of gold. That means that either gold is overvalued, or oil is undervalued. IMO, a correlation that close after 40 years is immaterial, especially when comparing the price of oil in FRN$. 1971 oil $3.60, 2012 oil $106. 1971 gold $42. 2012 gold $1700.

Which is the best numeraire, and holds it's purchasing power? Hint, it ain't the paper product that is printed at will and with no apparent limits.