If the Republicans hold the Senate for the next four years the DJIA will be at or above 40,000 sometime during that period.

I’m trying to digest just what you’ve said here.

If trump is not reelected our election system is permanently broken. Let that sink in.

OK, I'm all in then.....

If Biden becomes POTUS, it will be close to 20 in 6 months.

MM

Are you truly serious about that? Does anyone else think that is a reasonable statement?

Not talking election system. Stock market, specifically the DJIA.

Yes

I think the market will likely climb higher with Biden. The market is addicted to Fed and .gov money and biden is going to be pumping the chit out of it with QE funny money, stimulus, etc. Especially with the virus as an available excuse for doing so.

How we turn that off without sending the market into a tailspin is beyond me but you can sure as hell bet it ain't going to be a democrat that turns it off.

Yes. If we lose the Senate, the 3 Trillion hero’s act will be passed. Student loan forgiveness will pass. Biden will shut down the country for 3-4 months. The house will figure out a way to tax probably by removing deferred taxes on 401K accounts giving access to 3.6 Trillion. Paris Climate accord will go in costing 1 Trillion. Iran peace accord joined. Massive immigration leading to higher welfare expenditures. In other words look for the debt to go up by about 4-6 Trillion in the first 6 mos. Then add in all the new corporate and personal income taxes to go up to pay for all this sh*t. Plus oil, gas and electric prices have a value added tax of 50% to pay for the greenie layouts. Perfect scenario for a crash.

Yup.

If we don't fix the election process talking about who controls the senate is pretty meaningless.

I don't see a crash, more like a slow dive down over time as things contract.

Market is way over valued right now as it is, w/o really any good reasons.............no one is investing any capital anywhere, sitting on lots of cash.

People trying to sell businesses want ridiculous multiples.

Slow Joe & The Ho with make it mo'betta though.........................

JMHO

MM

Possibly. I think a lot depends on the vaccine rollout and effectiveness.

Exactly. Anyone who doesn’t think all of the above will not tank the economy and the market with it is clueless and likely voted for Biden.

A very big factor going forward from here.

Whether Trump or Biden, the vaccine will be hyped as such.

Hate to say this but defecits don’t mean jack scchitt anymore and won’t for anytime in the near to intermediate future.

It’s just how it is.

With Biden at the helm be very concerned about our Military.
Very concerned.

A successful vaccine will assist in propelling the market higher but I'm fully convinced that the invisible hand of the Fed is and has been the primary reason for the 10+ year bull market. Compare the Fed balance sheet to the past ~12 years.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm

I think Biden will remove all China trade sanctions which will cause the market to increase.

The Fed/Gov will continue to pump printed money into the market. This will work until it doesn't.

I hope the stock market crashes cause it is no good for a country where a bunch of lazy lard azzes sit around trying to get rich. the airlines spent 55 billion buying their own stocks so they would be inflated then they cash out . now they want a 60 billion dollar bailout from the govt. instead of investing the 55 billions on their planes terminals etc they wasted it in the stock market. stock market is now used by the CEO's to artificially drive up their stocks cash them in leave with 100-200 million while their company withers away with all those jobs lost. stock market used to be for building up a business now used to take them down Sears, Toys R Us cabelas just a few out of many

Yes and I furthermore think that it will be close to 15,000 by the start of Slow Joe's third year.

predict R's maintain control of the Senate, which will maintain gridlock. No big legislative events happen. Market stays on a rising trend next two years.

From the mouth's of babes who forgot to save when it was important to do so in one's career.........

Right on. That was my thinking when I made the prediction. The markets like gridlock. So do I. Also Biden is beholden to big Tech and big Corporations and has been all his career. He is not about to do anything to damage that relation. Harris?

Four years ago the DJIA was about half what it is now.

People who badmouth the Stock Markets probably don't realize how much they are invested in the Markets and how well they have performed over the past decade.

If the republicans have the senate, the house margin is razor thin, and Biden is a weak Pres, the stock market will love the expected reduction in gov caused changes.

I lost 20%/year under Bush 41 buying Cisco and Microsoft, but trading fast.
I made 20%/year under Clinton with Microsoft long term investing
I made 20%/year under Bush 43 with Microsoft and Google long term investing
I made 20%/year under Obama with Google and Amazon long term investing
I made 43%/year under Trump with Google and Amazon long term investing

Even “if” the market doesn’t crash with the Dem’s in charge.....they will get all of your earnings in Income Tax and Capitol Gains Taxes! memtb

Yep. You covered it nicely.

But the crash won't happen until the market has a big run up drunk on government money. Trick will be to bail before the crash. The Bear Market would be a LONG one.

Anybody mention interest rates?

They ain’t gonna stay this low forever. Sooner or later the cheap money is going to stop flowing, and when it does, well find out just how much of the economy is propped up by cheap cash.

Lots of business, big and small, going to feel it.

the world is awash in free helicopter money from the federal gov't. not sayin' it ain't needed, it's been part of the reconciliation that has kept us afloat. the roads around here are full of traffic, and mostly late model vehicles.

i'd say the gridlock point that others have made is very good backdrop for the markets to operate from.

i still remember ol jimmah's days and the level of interest rates at the time.

we're either in a majikal age, or interest rates will rise again.

Yup

Zerohedge had an article about this. Can't find it now.Their point was that the fed can't possible raise interest rates because it would do too much damage.

Everyone knows the market has been a money tree over the last 4 years. Based on what is the question. Don't prospectives say something like "past performance is no predictor of future performance".

Our high times are floating on debt.

Paying a financial advisor is such a waste of money if you can get free information on this forum.

That about covers it.

i want to get my financial information from the same place and same time that the financial advisors get theirs.


we must remember that debt is not all that bad. we've got plenty of it, and we're still very fine.

i use to adhere to various monetary theories, and there's lot's of them out there from which to choose.

nowadays, i've decided it's probably just as cost-effective to print 100 dollar bills as one dollar bills, yes?

Financial advisors are for amateurs. Anyone with a decent education willing to read, look, and listen can be their own financial advisor.

I have always run my own money and have lived in a comfortable neighborhood in the Land of Critical Mass for many years. Hell, if I can do it any fool can.

The Senate might be a roadblock.

The stock market didn’t take those companies down. Trying to compete with Walmart did.

The whole airline industry like the travel industry and the cruise lines are in the scchhitter because of the covid.

You’re dead right about many CEOs and their methods while the Boards of Directors lets them get away with it. Like, say, the NRA.

I can't see people going back en masse until vaccines are widespread.

Me either making now as the time to be buying those along the way,

I bought Boeing about six months ago. I'm way behind now. Might be a good time to buy and lower my average cost.

The Max was finally re-certified and will be carrying passengers sometime early next year.

I wouldn’t get on that plane if they offered me free unlimited flights for life, ‘if’ it had to be done on that plane. A lotta people feel the same way.

If you buy some now and be patient you'll do well, IMO. I think the Reps will hold the Senate for the next four years, and the Dems will have a slight majority in the House and will occupy the White House, making for gridlock. The Market loves the stability of gridlock.

The vaccine will work, and people will indulge in a travel orgy next spring. Americans are addicted to social media, their electronic toys, and TRAVEL!

Only concerned would be a max flown by an inexperienced, low hours, under trained third world diversity pilots.

Most people choose an airline because of the fare and convenience of connections and never even give a thought to the airplane.

The new Max will be the safest, most inspected, most certified airliner ever to fly. I'd be on it in a minute.

I know an old physics professor that had a heart attack. They turned over their assets to an investment advisor.

Their assets were quickly down 50%.

They pulled out of that adisor and got a new one.

Their assets were quickly, again down another 50%.

They pulled out of that adistor and the poor old man went back to managing his own money.

He is doing ok now at age 89.

If you really want to get into the weeds on the Boeing situation read this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YhSVtLXtIrw

Duhrka Duhrka Air ain’t getting a dime of my business. I’ll walk, paddle, or bus before I get on a plane driven by some douche bag that ain’t figured out toilet paper.

I and F.

These two letters put together are the most important word for any story.

IF..........

I do, unless the Feds drop the interest rate to zero like they did for obummer.

Most people are idiots about flying. The Max is now the most scrutinized airliner in modern history and the crews will get in-depth training in virtually every aspect of it. It would be my plane of choice to get on.

What do you think would happen to the stock market if Biden took the pink slip with a certified brain malfunction and Kampalla became president?

To repulsive to think about?

I used to think the market was going to crash, but now I think it is going to hold on...

What will crash is the buying power of the dollar via hyperinflation.

Think lumber is expensive now? I don't.

I expect all hard commodities to follow suit.

I was bidding on a used dozier yesterday.

Bids started at $30k...

Ended at $130k.

Why?

Money is on it's way to devaluation.

Just an opinion, but how I am playing my hand.

Buy stuff now, taxes due are less.

Hard commodities will increase in value.

Disagree? Go find me ammo or primers at reasonable cost.

Market won't collapse because the .Gov TSPs would walk away from the Dems forever if their account suffered.

Yes... people really are this stupid.

HARD COMMODITIES PHYSICALLY HELD.

China borrowing at negative rates. Maybe someone can translate...



https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ws...ive-rates-for-the-first-time-11605769378

Noticed that some of you said we need to fix the election process. How world you specifically fix it so that everyone gets to vote and it’s done fairly and accurately tabulated.

I've been living that for the last year.

If biden is the president then the market will go down after he is sworn in. After 2 months we will be in a war in the middle east plus a civil war in the states against gun confiscation and communism.

The Federal Funds rate is now at 0-.25% and has been for quite awhile. Can't get much lower unless they go negative.

Enjoy the low rates, they will probably be around well into '21.

The FED can’t raise the rates. Period.

It would increase the cost of servicing our debt and kill any stimulus and for the foreseeable future.

Jmo

Drink the Koolaid

Where’s the kool aid in what he said ?

Really?

You can't see it?

Clue #1

Free WORTHLESS money to borrow as far as the eye can see.

Send me all your "worthless Money". I'll recycle it in a responsible way.

Money is EXACTLY... stored labor.

Work and labor to earn a dollar and is equal to purchase capacity.

Print UNBACKED currency and it is worthless.

Print 20 Trillion in UNBACKED currency and you devalue ALL EXISTING CURRENCY.

This is hyperinflation.

The math is undeniable fact.

Don't believe me... OK, the Koolaid is free

Yeah, really.

Free worthless money, eh?

That dozer you were bidding on taste pretty good when you cook it?

Same for the dirt on the rural acerage you mentioned?

My money is buying hard commodities that will rise with inflation.

Think primers, ammo and lumber...

Uhhh, inflation is tied to interest rates. Remember the late 70s and early 80s maybe?

So from that where is this inflation you speak of?

California is an excellent case in point.

Insane pension obligations, insane debt, insane salaries, insane taxes.

House of cards about to fall apart as the exodus occurs...

Just watch.

Not that simple..... what will trigger the inflation everyone fears is a collapse in the confidence of our government , followed shortly thereafter with a collapse in the confidence of the USD.
We are set up for this event if Biden wins

I concur 100%

It's almost impossible to convince the people profiting during this ponzi scheme that it can and probably will end and it won't be pretty.
We are in the process of losing the reserve currency status and that is a loss of confidence ....... the old saying the USD is good as gold ..... well not anymore.
The question the investment wizards should be asking is what investment vehicle will protect them from inflation?

If we could corner the market on chicken... we could really educate those Popeyes chicken eating mofos a thing or two.

Most believe money printing will cause inflation, well if that was true we would be currently experiencing massive inflation, we are not.
Interest rates are simply a tool the Feds use to control money and money flows, it also tends to misallocate money movements. I.E. the 2008 real estate crash.
The politicians have driven our production overseas, and we are now a service base economy, and we rely upon speculative bubbles to create wealth... that is not true wealth.
We are in for a world of hurt if they continue and Biden is prepared to double down on stupid.

It is that simple.

“Simply put”, with worldwide considerations, the USA is still the cleanest dirty shirt in the closet and the G 8 nations are joined at the hip and pretty much in lock step.

What we think that we know about all of this don’t mean jackscchitt in the bigger international money scheme of things. Nada.

If we want and have to worry about something let’s focus on another sub prime meltdown type scenario. That’ll f’k things up as it was an international event.

Jmo

Getting back to those hard commodities things are you ?
Grins

As for international money... two words Toot... Brexit, Deutsche bank..... bad stuff is happening....
Research the "great reset" it will answer many questions regarding international money and the plan of the big players internationally

Of course the USA is the cleanest dirty shirt in the closet... that is exactly why every other country wants a piece of it.

If you are having a Thanksgiving feast for 12... and 200 more show up... the original 12 and going to go mighty hungry.

EVERYBODY WANTS A CHUCK OF THE PROSPERITY OF THE USA.

Amen, Cash.

Hard commodities are a reasonable safe haven, and one could argue the stock market is also.
I would argue the stock can and has crashed in the past and will probably do so again.... when? who knows...
Best diversify

The monetary reset due to worldwide debt overburden has long been discussed by the G7 and it will happen.

Debts will be forgiven and purged on a prorated basis per nation pending their GDPs, populations, etc.

The only true wild card that’s left in whole wide f’kn world is the American gun owner.

I had an IT guy that worked for years ago.

He used to argue with me how unfair it was that his counterpart in India only made 20% of what he made.

I told him to send the guy 40% of his paycheck.

He said no... "the "world" should pay him the same as me."

I told him.. "Same as you sending him 1/2 your pay."

He never did get the point.

What happens to commodities values when the stock markets crash?

Indeed Toot, Biden will take care of us gun owners.....

Makes your ass wanna suck buttermilk don’t it?

There’s many that think and vote just like that.

The majority will probably crash along with stocks.... but not all, so the trick is to guess correctly....

So how does one position himself for the coming crash? A crash that has been predicted by the doomsayers forever and ever.

I'll tell you how: DIVERSIFICATION. If one has all his assets in one or two vehicles he is beyond stupid.

Further to the Boeing discussion; I just doubled my position which brings my average cps to approximately $270.00. So when/if BA hits $270 I'll break even.

I'm fairly confident this will happen in the next few months. Time will tell.

Checked prices on houses, education, healthcare, equities lately? We are.

Those are part of the ponzi bubbles controlled by the Fed, who is controlled by the new world order...

True inflation happens across many more asset classes

How come we have very low inflation now and have had for years?

Accept the present environment (because you cannot change it) and learn to profit from it.

Everyone keeps saying “inflation is low”. Huh?? We talking about the $70k pickup that used to be $35k in 2000? The $4 a gallon milk that was $2, 20 years ago??

Yes, there are items that are as cheap as they were 20 years ago. They say “China” on the bottom, now, and when you buy them, you ALSO get to pay taxes to support some Democrat voter, who sits on their azz waiting for a govt handout, rather than going and working at a manufacturing plant, like they would have pre- China/Clinton.

Look at anything that is domestically produced (other than maybe oil), and tell me that inflation is “low”....

Nothings cheap but some China made chit

The Feds says the inflation target is 2-3% so that is what they claim. The real number I believe is 4-6%

Gasoline, it’s cheaper than bottled water.

When you compare prices of years ago also compare salaries.

Inflation is low, very low, historically low.

If inflation were high like it was way back in the '70s you would be getting 8-9% on bank savings accounts (now it is .01%) and you would be paying 10%+ for your home loan (now a home loan is around 3% or less).

Yes gas is cheaper than bottled water so are pretzels.

Enough said right there.

They have to make Biden and the CommieBitch look good. The market will do what the Rothschilds want it to do. Who do you think fixed this election for kirsesake?

Once this "pandemic" is over, which it should be before next summer, you will see an explosion in demand. The savings rate is at historic levels due to the lack of spending opportunities.

Contrary to what the Talking Heads and Newsreaders would have you believe not everyone is "living paycheck to paycheck". The "pandemic" has stifled spending for many and that money has gone to savings. Once the country is open a lot of that money will explode into the economy. Expect a Stock Market boom.

Right now is the time to be buying airlines. Southwest would be my favorite, followed by Alaska and Delta. Also Disney and other resort properties would be a good play. And don't forget Boeing. The Max was just re-certified in Europe as it has been in the USA.

Should have bought airlines a few months ago. I guess pick some on the future dips like SAVE and ALK

Airlines still way below pre-pandemic levels and airline travel is not even half what it was.

Ouch, .....yes it will get there, last week it made some headway.

But the other stock opportunities out there are numerous whilst waiting for that to come back.
Rather than dollar cost averaging that stock, I'd dive into the many others ready to explode.

I very seldom buy individual stocks but I am tempted to take on a few now.

We still have 6-8 months of pandemic to deal with, everything travel related is going bankrupt or borrowing to survive. All those industries are going to be debt burdened for some time.

We haven’t even begun digesting the commercial real estate pain, or the mortgage pain yet. There is going to be pain, and a 100% chance the Biden administration will screw up the recovery. The markets are running on hopes and dreams right now, and I’ll tell you how that ends up.

Broad-based low-cost index funds with buy and hold investing are what I'm a fan of. Though I do hold some shares of Apple, AT&T and Southern Company.

I will wait to find out if Biteme gets in to see if we will have a destroyed economy from increased taxes and triple energy and electricity prices.

You couldn’t tell us whether the sun will come up tomorrow.

The S&P 500 averaged 11% annual growth in the 8 years under Obama. It has also averaged 11% annual growth in the 4 years under Trump. As others have mentioned, there are more relevant factors (fed rate as an example) than who sits in the oval office. Also, the democraps are not likely to go off the rails and risk having the House go red in the mid term election.

S and P 500 best post election rally since 1932.
Dow up 12% in November.

Markets like stability Donald isn't stable".

Probably had nothing to do with the vaccine news....

As far as Biden being stable? LMAO

That has been my strategy for my entire investment career. Vanguard no load mutual funds (mostly index funds). But, occasionally I go bottom fishing; BP after the spill, Exxon after their spill, Boeing after the crashes. Just today I took a flyer on Southwest Airlines, not exactly a bottom dweller but I see a large upside there. Might also grab a little Alaska and Delta, and Disney and other resorts might be a good play.

Total Market and S&P 500 have been my staples over the past decades. Thank you, Bob Brinker.