"The office vacancy rate in Manhattan has hit its highest level since 1994 and will likely hit “unprecedented levels” in the near future, a report from a global real estate firm has found.
CNN reports the global real estate service firm Cushman & Wakefield found that the office vacancy rate in Manhattan reached 16.3 percent in the first quarter of 2021, up from 11.3 percent a year ago.
The company said it expects the rate to continue to rise to "unprecedented levels in the coming months” and drive down asking rents “substantially.”"
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-...e-space-reaches-highest-level-since-1994
Not surprising.
I wonder if the rates fall low enough will it bring in new customers, or is "business" done with NYC?
I can see a good business opportunity there for re-developing commercial property into residential
No, no, no.
New York is fine.
I'd bet it's not just Manhattan (although it could fall in the river for all I care).
The Genie is out of the bottle as far as the WFH model. I know I and 95% of my company has been WFH for 14 months now and we've proven it to be efficient and secure. Our leadership is now considering making it a permanent option for many employees, and why not? If 80% or more of the workforce can WFH, it allows management so many more options.
I would not want to be heavily invested in commercial real estate at this point. YMMV.
my company , at least in America, is having its strongest year ever, and thats with WFH being mandated - all of our offices in the US are empty.
They are already closing smaller offices and renegotiating rates on bigger ones. There is a downside to it though as well - the perks we used to have at larger offices - an onsite cafeteria, fully stocked coffee stations on each floor, catered meetings, etc - all of that is going to be gone as well.
I don't have a long commute so part of me wants to go back into the office, especially with the freedom on choosing the days I go into work. But a part time model doesn't really make the office all that appealing - you'll never know who will be in the office, so I suspect all the offices will just become meeting spaces. If we go into the office at all, they'll need to mandate times for us, otherwise we might as well just work at home and video conference
I agree that office spaces rates are going to nosedive. You're going to have to offer something substantial to motivate people to use the office space post pandemic.
WFH is here to stay and it’s a micromanager’s nightmare. Which is funny, because they’re the first ones to set up a home office.
Daughter worked in Chicago up until a few months ago, they abandoned the office March 2020 and have been working remotely ever since........... taking a hard look at whether to pay the$10K/month or continue from 'home'....
She has been in NYC since leaving Chicago, and the much the same is going on in NY, people are leaving NYC, living and working folk, and have NO intention to go back.............
The big liberal cities are bleeding tax payers................
Now, if we can only keep them from voting like azz-hats when they move to red States..............
The productivity and quality of work of our support staff has declined significantly since they have been working from home. I sure hope they reopen the office soon.
I can see a good business opportunity there for re-developing commercial property into residential
Who is going to live there? Seems like everyone in NYC is getting out if there. Unfortunately, many of them are coming this way.
The productivity and quality of work of our support staff has declined significantly since they have been working from home. I sure hope they reopen the office soon.
Not trying to pick a fight, but that's a management issue, not a manpower issue. Our experience has been the opposite.
Are there people who are taking advantage of the situation or need direct supervision? Sure, but with the proper tools and leadership those people are pretty easy to weed out of your organization, and with a good WFH model you should be able to replace them from anywhere in the country.
When it became obvious that WFH was working so well for so many, it occurred to me that REITs might eventually take a serious hit.
What goes around comes around eventually, and at some point having a physical office might just become trendy again, totally apart from economics, and if rents really go down and make it affordable, a smaller footprint might become the norm. Think of the money that’ll be saved when companies’ existing leases run out. I’ll bet commercial cleaning companies are feeling the pinch now.
My son manages a landscaping branch, and they have some customer locations that are essentially abandoned. Grass still needs to be cut etc, but snow removal and ice treatment is definitely optional. At what point do these sites get converted to something else?
The productivity and quality of work of our support staff has declined significantly since they have been working from home. I sure hope they reopen the office soon.
Not trying to pick a fight, but that's a management issue, not a manpower issue. Our experience has been the opposite.
Are there people who are taking advantage of the situation or need direct supervision? Sure, but with the proper tools and leadership those people are pretty easy to weed out of your organization, and with a good WFH model you should be able to replace them from anywhere in the country.
Yep. You are correct, sir. Just stating the current facts within our organization.
my buddy is a hiring manager for an IT company and he said he is having trouble hiring people who will work in the office. everyone got a taste of WFH and it has completely changed peoples attitudes. "You want me to work IN the office??. Thats outrageous" . i think people are getting spoiled and feeling entitled. not good.
i just changed jobs and am glad i have the option to WFH or not. for now i am home because nobody else is in the office. probably start a hybrid model here in a couple months. i've been WFH for over a year and wouldn't mind 2-3 days in the office a week.
as for productivity, i got my reservations whether it is better or worse. for me, it depends on the day.
I can see a good business opportunity there for re-developing commercial property into residential
Who is going to live there? Seems like everyone in NYC is getting out if there. Unfortunately, many of them are coming this way.
Was talking with the paralegal working on my father’s estate yesterday. She said she and her fiancé were planning on leaving the People’s Republic of Maryland soon. I told her they were welcome here as long as they didn’t vote Democrap. She said, “No worries there!”
The productivity and quality of work of our support staff has declined significantly since they have been working from home. I sure hope they reopen the office soon.
Not trying to pick a fight, but that's a management issue, not a manpower issue. Our experience has been the opposite.
Are there people who are taking advantage of the situation or need direct supervision? Sure, but with the proper tools and leadership those people are pretty easy to weed out of your organization, and with a good WFH model you should be able to replace them from anywhere in the country.
Yep. You are correct, sir. Just stating the current facts within our organization.
WFH can certainly identify good leaders and good employees.
When it became obvious that WFH was working so well for so many, it occurred to me that REITs might eventually take a serious hit.
What goes around comes around eventually, and at some point having a physical office might just become trendy again, totally apart from economics, and if rents really go down and make it affordable, a smaller footprint might become the norm. Think of the money that’ll be saved when companies’ existing leases run out. I’ll bet commercial cleaning companies are feeling the pinch now.
My son manages a landscaping branch, and they have some customer locations that are essentially abandoned. Grass still needs to be cut etc, but snow removal and ice treatment is definitely optional. At what point do these sites get converted to something else?
No way would I invest in a REIT right now. Companies love dumping overhead, and the work from home narrative fits the bill. I can see existing office space being converted into housing for immigrants. An exist office building would warehouse people nicely. Biden’s border problem is solved!
that's another thing - you get on a video conference call now and half the people are in Florida. "Home" is wherever you want to be.
The productivity and quality of work of our support staff has declined significantly since they have been working from home. I sure hope they reopen the office soon.
Not trying to pick a fight, but that's a management issue, not a manpower issue. Our experience has been the opposite.
Are there people who are taking advantage of the situation or need direct supervision? Sure, but with the proper tools and leadership those people are pretty easy to weed out of your organization, and with a good WFH model you should be able to replace them from anywhere in the country.
My grandson does software engineering and analytics. Of course, he can work from anywhere. They hadn’t been working from home for long, before the word went out: everyone was to be logged off for the week no later than noon on Friday. They were getting more done by that time WFH, than what had been accomplished with everyone in the office for 40 hours.
yep, the word is the next thing for us is a 4 day work week unless you are customer facing.
I won't complain if it happens. No one schedules meetings on Fridays anymore as it is thru word of mouth.
The productivity and quality of work of our support staff has declined significantly since they have been working from home. I sure hope they reopen the office soon.
Not trying to pick a fight, but that's a management issue, not a manpower issue. Our experience has been the opposite.
Are there people who are taking advantage of the situation or need direct supervision? Sure, but with the proper tools and leadership those people are pretty easy to weed out of your organization, and with a good WFH model you should be able to replace them from anywhere in the country.
I'm reaching back to my grad level management classes from 30 years ago, but around that time there was also a big WFH movement with the advent of the computer. The data showed that, ON AVERAGE, productivity was good at first, and then gradually started to decline. The biggest issue, then, and I suspect will be today, was the inability to instill a company culture and "esprit de corps" among the employees.
The logical conclusion of that progression is that everyone slides into the gig economy, working under platforms like task rabbit, and the concept of long term employment loses it dominance. We already see this in Europe with it's stringent labor laws. Companies just contract, they don't hire unless they absolutely have no other choice whatsoever.
All you guys that claim WFH is so great. Doesn't your wife raise hell while you're bangin the secretary on your deck.
All you guys that claim WFH is so great. Doesn't your wife raise hell while you're bangin the secretary on your deck.
I have noticed the housekeeper drinks on the job
I can see a good business opportunity there for re-developing commercial property into residential
Manhattan's apartment rental vacancy rate has tripled to 6.1%.
https://ipropertymanagement.com/research/rental-vacancy-rate
The biggest issue, then, and I suspect will be today, was the inability to instill a company culture and "esprit de corps" among the employees.
My company went from "Don't even ask" to probably 80%+ will be staying home when we "return to the office" in June. It doesn't seem like company "leadership" is concerned that this will negatively impact our company culture, which is arguably our biggest differentiator and competitive advantage. To me it seems like they're betting the company on something that will be incredibly difficult, if not impossible, to ever walk back.
The biggest issue, then, and I suspect will be today, was the inability to instill a company culture and "esprit de corps" among the employees.
My company went from "Don't even ask" to probably 80%+ will be staying home when we "return to the office" in June. It doesn't seem like company "leadership" is concerned that this will negatively impact our company culture, which is arguably our biggest differentiator and competitive advantage. To me it seems like they're betting the company on something that will be incredibly difficult, if not impossible, to ever walk back.
I've read reports that 1 in 4 employees plan on leaving their current job after that pandemic restrictions are pulled back.
If you are mandating office workers commute to work every day for the office environment and other jobs are offering a flexible work schedule, you're probably going to be negatively affected by attrition.
It may not be something management is happy about doing but realizes they have to do it otherwise employees will leave.
I've read reports that 1 in 4 employees plan on leaving their current job after that pandemic restrictions are pulled back.
If you are mandating office workers commute to work every day for the office environment and other jobs are offering a flexible work schedule, you're probably going to be negatively affected by attrition.
It may not be something management is happy about doing but realizes they have to do it otherwise employees will leave.
I can see that being an issue but I'm going to guess the actual impact ends up being way less than 1 in 4.
The biggest issue, then, and I suspect will be today, was the inability to instill a company culture and "esprit de corps" among the employees.
My company went from "Don't even ask" to probably 80%+ will be staying home when we "return to the office" in June. It doesn't seem like company "leadership" is concerned that this will negatively impact our company culture, which is arguably our biggest differentiator and competitive advantage. To me it seems like they're betting the company on something that will be incredibly difficult, if not impossible, to ever walk back.
I've read reports that 1 in 4 employees plan on leaving their current job after that pandemic restrictions are pulled back.
If you are mandating office workers commute to work every day for the office environment and other jobs are offering a flexible work schedule, you're probably going to be negatively affected by attrition.
It may not be something management is happy about doing but realizes they have to do it otherwise employees will leave.
For me, and this is just me, but I HAD a 45 minute commute each way on a good day if the weather was nice. Doing the math that's about 390 hours a year in the car that I'm not getting paid for, not to mention the gas. Now my commute is about 13 steps from my basement office to my living room. As a result I can stay later or start earlier and get more accomplished in the same week. My company has bent over backwards to keep people employed and productive through this mess. I can't imagine they would change that now. They are certainly aware of the attrition risk.
There are many, many jobs that can be done by a cell phone and not much else about three days a week.
For some reason this annoys the stupid. Typically.
I'd bet it's not just Manhattan (although it could fall in the river for all I care).
The Genie is out of the bottle as far as the WFH model. I know I and 95% of my company has been WFH for 14 months now and we've proven it to be efficient and secure. Our leadership is now considering making it a permanent option for many employees, and why not? If 80% or more of the workforce can WFH, it allows management so many more options.
I would not want to be heavily invested in commercial real estate at this point. YMMV.
And there it is.
I know that the phrase is long overused but as work goes and the future of work goes, there’s been a paradigm shift.
my company , at least in America, is having its strongest year ever, and thats with WFH being mandated - all of our offices in the US are empty.
They are already closing smaller offices and renegotiating rates on bigger ones. There is a downside to it though as well - the perks we used to have at larger offices - an onsite cafeteria, fully stocked coffee stations on each floor, catered meetings, etc - all of that is going to be gone as well.
I don't have a long commute so part of me wants to go back into the office, especially with the freedom on choosing the days I go into work. But a part time model doesn't really make the office all that appealing - you'll never know who will be in the office, so I suspect all the offices will just become meeting spaces. If we go into the office at all, they'll need to mandate times for us, otherwise we might as well just work at home and video conference
I agree that office spaces rates are going to nosedive. You're going to have to offer something substantial to motivate people to use the office space post pandemic.
Same here.
My team has people moving out of the city to different parts of the country. It's unlikely we will ever go back to the old office environment. I'm expecting us to down size our office space footprint by around 60%
The biggest downfall of all this is going to be an even larger percentage of dick heads that gotta have their five acres, a horse, and a noise ordinance against gun fire.
10,000 + people a day leave New York,the taxes,the crime,the swarm of illeagles. People are voting with their feet,and taking their money with them.
Empty offices=the new section 8 housing opportunity
It couldn't happen to a more deserving bunch.
kwg
10,000 + people a day leave New York,the taxes,the crime,the swarm of illeagles. People are voting with their feet,and taking their money with them.
Good!!!
The biggest issue, then, and I suspect will be today, was the inability to instill a company culture and "esprit de corps" among the employees.
My company went from "Don't even ask" to probably 80%+ will be staying home when we "return to the office" in June. It doesn't seem like company "leadership" is concerned that this will negatively impact our company culture, which is arguably our biggest differentiator and competitive advantage. To me it seems like they're betting the company on something that will be incredibly difficult, if not impossible, to ever walk back.
I've read reports that 1 in 4 employees plan on leaving their current job after that pandemic restrictions are pulled back.
If you are mandating office workers commute to work every day for the office environment and other jobs are offering a flexible work schedule, you're probably going to be negatively affected by attrition.
It may not be something management is happy about doing but realizes they have to do it otherwise employees will leave.
For me, and this is just me, but I HAD a 45 minute commute each way on a good day if the weather was nice. Doing the math that's about 390 hours a year in the car that I'm not getting paid for, not to mention the gas. Now my commute is about 13 steps from my basement office to my living room. As a result I can stay later or start earlier and get more accomplished in the same week. My company has bent over backwards to keep people employed and productive through this mess. I can't imagine they would change that now. They are certainly aware of the attrition risk.
My sister is now fully WFH. She was starting at 6, getting up at 4 to battle traffic and sometimes up to 3 hours to get home. She is now up at 5-530, logs on and works. She is done by 12 but is way happier with the quality of her life and doesn't have to deal with the office manager she can't stand.
I know in our state the vacation area in Northern MI is seeing a flood of new home buyers driving prices up. The inventory is so low people can't sell because they won't have anything to move into. Building supplies are so expensive that new home starts are 35% higher per square foot.
One thing I have yet to hear is the huge reduction in dropped mileage on the highways. Reducing fuel consumption across the country and even the world. Yet, gas prices have jumped over $.80 a gallon here.
This should be a greenie weenies dream in energy reduction. The more you think about everything this C-19 virus is a blessing for the left. Almost like it was the long game. Got rid of Trump, gave them control and benefits the left's green energy wing.
10,000 + people a day leave New York,the taxes,the crime,the swarm of illeagles. People are voting with their feet,and taking their money with them.
10,000 + people a day leave New York,the taxes,the crime,the swarm of illeagles. People are voting with their feet,and taking their money with them.
I’d rather 10,000 arrive. They’re not taking their politics with them.
There are many, many jobs that can be done by a cell phone and not much else about three days a week.
For some reason this annoys the stupid. Typically.
Some people think YOU annoy the stupid. Typically.
Smart folks believe in the 'flave.
The biggest downfall of all this is going to be an even larger percentage of dick heads that gotta have their five acres, a horse, and a noise ordinance against gun fire.
Just wait until some apartment dwellers get their 5 acres, then a dog, then don't want to pick up the dog scheidt on their lawn so they just let the pooch out every morning to run. When Fido or Fifi gets to killing someone's chickens or running stock and gets shot, they may rethink their move?
Probably not though, they'll probably just petition the county commission to change the zoning laws for chicken and lambs.
It may come to pass that COVID killed the CBD.