Getting clubbed like a baby seal this week.

Amazon down $180 right now. Netflix down $120 today.

Bitcoin is down $30k since November 8 ($67,566 to $37,800 today)...

Baby seal blood everywhere...

I will say it again...

"Hard Commodities... Physically Held".

Hold on boys... wheels are off the track... and the brakes are going out.

Fed ‘Will Only Remove the Punch Bowl After It Sees People Staggering Around Drunk

Buckle up, the Fed is going to have to do something.

I loaded up at the open and was up nicely but they sold everything into the close and I got stopped out even which is okay because who knows what's happening in the next few weeks with Brandon, Russia, the Fed next week etc.

What are your favorites?

Whatever stuff you know best...

If you are a fabricator (like my friend that owns a big trailer shop)... steel, hubs, axles, welding rods etc.). Maybe $300k in inventory... that kinda thing.

Same if you are an electrician... get ahead of the shortages... AND keep your ability to do your job and GET PAID.

If flipping cars is your thing... get a dozen Prius and wait for gas price panic...

Bottomline... whatever you know best... get ahead of it.

Same thing that so many said 24 months ago....and thankfully many of us didn't listen. I'll be looking for an exit this year, but not before $300K in gains, mostly energy.

Glad for you... I have done fairly well on CVX and XOM myself.

My larger question is this... "What mechanism (...what fulcrum arm of leverage) does the FED or .GOV currently possess to right this train (i.e. get it back on the tracks)?

Specifically... and politely asking... what economic tools or means of fiscal solvency does the current administration or current FED have at their disposal to fix this chit?

Since Putin seems intent on invading Ukraine despite tough guy Joe telling him to stop, I emptied the pool and put in 10,000 gallons of gas. Figure it'll hit $5/gal soon.

T/y.
And those are excellent questions, I can't answer them.
What I can say is that we saw billions of scared cash on the sidelines in the market of a lifetime. Just the residual of the Trump tax cuts and consumer savings put billions of cash in American pockets ready to be spent once virus concerns alleviated. People couldn't (and can't) wait to spend regardless of the doom spewed on CNN, I still think we will run further once O-cron dies off.

Will we correct hard thereafter? Certainly. This fed stuff is horrible. I'm thankful for Dem dickheads Manchin and Sinemma today for sure, at least right now they are preserving what's left of the integrity of our U.S. dollar.

Covid sucked for everyone, but I'm glad I was here to experience the market recovery--I've waited all of my life for a market opportunity like this.
Hope to be a vapor trail by the time we see major correction, save a few lithium and crypto stocks.

It'll be interesting to see what plays out if Putin doesn't heed Brandon's stern warning. Can we schedule the mid terms early?

What scares me more is what happens if we have a several year uptrend in interest rates, something we haven't seen in decades.

Actually... I don't see any way possible that that does not happen.

The biggest problem with that is when the rates go up so do the rates on the National Dept... and "United States Total Debt accounted for 895.4 % of the country's GDP in 2020" https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/united-states/total-debt--of-gdp

Personally... I am thinking below is an OPTIMISTIC chart...



https://www.crfb.org/papers/interest-payments-federal-budget

Turning off the free money spigot will be somewhat painful. They may just keep re arranging the chairs on the sinking ship.

.g0v forced to live within its means might make things sparky.

It is not possible to turn it off... most .GOV people couldn't cover their mortgage more than a few months. Some smart retirees and Vets could if they own their stuff outright... but overall I studied the big .GOV shutdown back in 2018-2019 during Trump pretty hard... a HUGE HUGE % of .GOV people were almost at default on their mortgage.

What % of the population could cover 6 months with ZERO INCOME. Hell 44% can't cover $1k

That is the pickle...

I admit I am an economic moron... I would be super happy if the really smart economic folks here on the Campfire stepped in and bitch slapped me around some... and repainted my doomsday portraiture.

If you owe money on a house and you voted for Joe, I guess you are getting your reward for being a dumbass.

kwg

The Left has been masterfully pushing the Cloward and Piven plan for decades to create a system that collapses, by design, under it's own critical mass. The pandemic was the perfect crisis to exploit and accelerate the process.

If you believe this(and I think you are probably right) then the only safe haven I see is gold/silver.

The Fed has a choice to crash the economy or continue to devalue the dollar. Which do you think they will choose?

To the former yes, the latter no and in my situation you'd be the azz.

I am OK with owing money as long as you can back it.

I just bought a 2022 Toyota Sienna for the wife... NEVER have I financed a car... EVER. Owned 30+ over the years... maybe 60+.

We financed this one...

Why? 1.9% over 5 years... chit... with inflation at 10%-16% annually... kinda stupid not to.

Do we have the cash to buy it out... sure, but why? I gots other fish to fry.

G/S is manipulated by the big boys... wanna be safe? Stockpile a couple metric tons of scrap lead (seriously)... no one manipulates lead... or steel stock... or REAL HARD COMMODITIES.

And no one is going to steal 10 tons of lead from the back side of your wood pile... and lead don't rust... and there will ALWAYS be a market/scrap for lead... ALWAYS.

Sounds stupid, but... not really.

HARD COMMODITIES... PHYSICALLY HELD will rise with inflation... always have... always will.

A sub-3% 15 year home loan (done in ten more) and an easy earn of 10+% in the market is a no brainer. This in days I run less risk being retired. As I have mentioned years before, investing is a very personal decision.

You can't taper a ponzi scheme. They have no choice, but to inflate .

BINGO...

Thank you... truly a wise summation.

VERY TRUE...

What works for me... you... or others... is NEVER the same medicine.

They are imploding... so what do they do? What can they do?

Attack.

Pick a fight with Russia? War is always a good way to get Wallstreet going.

They will try... but it will fail.

Too many sons and daughter are hip to the BS this time.

The real war will NOT BE ON FOREIGN SOIL THIS TIME.

Bitcoin off 50% from the high now.

A huge risk right now is the Biden is so friggin weak that some of his idiot advisors may convince him to be tough for political reasons and we end up in another cold or hot war.

Buy more when stuff goes on sale.

I agree that this is very optimistic. Assume the national debt is $30 trillion. So every 1% increase in interest rates is $300 billion in additional interest on that debt.

LOL. His advisors would have to be more whacked than Biden. The American public has no stomach for that right now after the last 20 years, and everyone knows we are too tapped out to finance it. (It sure would put a bunch of additional nails in the Build Back Better coffin.) In addition, it is almost unanimous with both Democrats and Republicans that Biden totally messed up the withdrawal from Afghanistan. There is no way people are going to think that he can do better getting us into something exponentially more dangerous than that. Doing that would almost ensure a turnover of both houses of Congress and allow the Republicans to take a page out of the Democrat playbook and initiate impeachment proceedings against Biden (unless they don't prefer President Harris).

More baby seal blood...

I hear you. When I fill up I also get a couple extra grocery bags full to build up the emergency stock. /s

Right now, there's a lot of high quality tech stocks that have reached technically oversold areas on the charts but are getting dragged down with crap stocks that went way up and make no money. Microsoft may be a good example. It's off >20% from the highs and it's a premiere cloud computing company with solid earnings. I hate the company but they make money and are growing. They report earnings tomorrow. Wouldn't be surprised if some of the fund managers start buying it today on this sell off anticipating earnings. If so, and if it goes up on earnings, that may be the type of huge market cap stock that could mark a broader bottom this week.

DOW down almost 1,000 points now- Let's go Brandon!

That OK... Inflation is up by 25%...

Brandon's Got This!

Right?

According to him, he's overachieved in his first year.

I have taken a beating in GOOG [12%] and AMZN [37%] and NFLX [47%] over the last 6 months.

My relatives in MSFT [4%] not so much.

That would be a$$hole to the mear mortals.

kwg

O'Biden did promise a "Dark Winter"... of Severe Illness and Death.

Unfortunately, he was talking about America.

Our scrap yards pay 5 cents a pound for lead but will sell it to you for $3/pound. I agree lead has value but it's hard to get the value out of it.

Gold and silver are manipulated and suppressed but I think that if a currency crisis hits gold and silver will be hard for them to manipulate and may climb to its real value. Silver gets too bulky to handle after stacking for a while so I've had to move to gold. I bought a few thousand pounds of quality monotype from an old printshop owner a few years ago and it was not fun to move. I'd hate to have my net worth in it and need to move it.

I do think there is value in stocking up on real assets. My friend told me about a town in Brazil he lived in when their currency went down. He said every payday all the people in town spent their whole paycheck on bricks at the towns brick factory and stacked them in their yards. By the time they got their next paycheck the price of bricks had more than tripled and and got worse with time. Real assets can be a store of value when currency is dropping. When I bought a new truck and new jeep in 2019 I wouldn't have guessed I'd be selling them at a 20% profit 2 years later but I did.

For me the best way I've found to stack lead has been in the form of loaded ammo. If ammo prices drop a bit more I'm going to add a few more pallets to that stash. I keep a pretty large food storage and enough other hard assets to protect it.

I keep an account with an emergency fund that will support my family for a year but at this point I worry it's stupid to have that much sitting in a savings account devaluing. Other than gold I'm struggling to find another hard asset that's easy to store, transport, and trade.

I parked my retirement funds in money markets a year ago. I wasn't sure when Biden would screw up the economy I was just sure he would do it at some point. I felt bad the last year watching it devalue but I know others that are feeling pretty bad about their funds and crypto this month.

Bb

That delta is terrible... Mine was something like $0.75 inbound and $1 outbound (but that was years ago). I had shops that supplied much to me at $0.50 or less (because they didn't want the hassle).

My sons and I made Wake Boat disks and were selling them at $4/pound.

I had tons of lead ingots back in the day... but not anymore.

I have since switched to other hard commodities past few years and my focus on stuff changed.

Each man should KNOW TO THE CORE what is best for him.

I like that brick analogy about Brazil...

America went "All In" on being a Service Economy over the past 2 decades...

It was a stupid decision IMHO... we are paying the price now.

Much Tech and Service will faultier/fail.

So be it.

Nice comeback by the "baby seals" today.

Yeah, amazing bounce today. I put about 130k to work about an hour into the day. We'll see what it does in the next couple days. But I'm gonna keep a tight sell stop because I don't trust Brandon.

Think I'm going to buy some AMZN today. Sale price < $2800.

I got stopped out even money. More blood after hours.

I only have tech in my index funds. I took out another 5k out of the S&P500 yesterday and actually made money yesterday cause it came back. You will notice that the high dividend ETF's made money today again. SPYD +.33%,, SCHD +.06%, VYM +.07%, HDV gained .77%. That is incredible.The energy stock index gained 3.75?% today. I gained .65% today and am up 1.8% YTD.

Just riding right through it all.

SELL SELL SELL! The end is near! The sky is falling!

word


And not just in relation to the subject of this thread either.

The really sad thing is everyone is waiting to hear what the Fed says instead of worrying about products, sales, market share, and profits. Our markets have been reduced to groveling for government money printing.

HARD COMMODITIES... PHYSICALLY HELD.

Need pallet racking for my metal buildings in West Virginia... bought 24 uprights, 80 beams, racking shelves for $2,560 today. Chuck threw in about $500/$600 of additional stuff free. Organization of stuff is critical for me.



My existing trailers are occupied... so 10 minutes on Facebook Marketplace this AM and found a fantastic 2010 14,000 Trailer 20' that was on the way to the pallet racking.

Bought the trailer at $3,400... picked up the pallet racking...

Will sell the trailer at market in the near future... About $6k...

Moral of the story... FREE pallet racking

Know what you are good at and what you need... and proceed accordingly.

Bought a great used backhoe last week for $20k (it will see much functional practical use... then get resold when it's need is done or I'll use it to trade up on a nice track hoe). Great asset that can be resold at 125% of purchase price or more anytime I choose.

Whatever you know well... is always the best asset.

Crypto... TicTok... not a clue about that chit.

Depending on the reaction to tomorrow's Fed event, I may load up.If it's not a bottom, I'll just sell covered calls every month until the bottom and use the premiums to average down on more shares.

I wish you well...

I sold a bunch last Friday . sitting one 300 k in cash . Waiting awhile to jump back in

Great day for the 'DEV,......Teasing 200K in gains with that one now.

What's the DEV?

Energy sector...

At least I am assuming Devon...

ZIM 4 da win!

LOL...

Pam and tossing quarters... "This ain't Unicef"...

Thanks Cash. Btw, I agree with your strategy. Investing in hard assets you're familiar with is solid advice.

This is a very serious situation that the Fed is expected to do something about. Who knows what might happen next week, because everything keeps deteriorating.

The Fed has an empty sack...

Maybe a couple of short term tools to stop the hemorrhage, but NOTHING to save patient...

We are standing on the edge of a mud cliff... and an earthquake is coming.

That is just my opinion...

There is no Dot Com boom on this horizon as best I can see.

Sorry that was abbreviated for CDEV. Centenial Development.

Baby seal for breakfast anyone?

CashisKing is right. Hard assets. However, it is a bit late for me cause assets are already high, like land. I do have 3 small parcels though including a payed off house on 4 acres. The other 2 parcels are 7 ac. river front parcels. Now, I wish I had a dozen of those parcels. The next best thing is owning companie's stocks that own hard assets. It is not the same , but still good . I am still up 1.3% this year cause I have a lot of energy and pipeline stocks, real- estate and utilities. I also own Kellogs, General Mills, Archer Daniels Midland, Tyson, Smuckers Jelly and Kroger . I think food stocks , will do ok, they seem to go up when the shtf along with gold and utilities. I took 5K out of the S&P 500 the other day. There is always something to buy.

There's really no good answer. If they keep pumping liquidity into the system, it just makes the current inflation problem worse, and it will make the inevitable hangover worse. If they start pulling liquidity out and raise rates as much as they need to, it'll reverse a multi decade down trend in rates. That will likely cap housing values and start a multi year bear market. We'll see how it plays out.

SMART MAN...

Own something... it will rise with the tide caused by the BS toilet flushing.

To recap...

The Fed has an empty sack.

There will be market run ups... maybe even tomorrow after 10 am... but the OVERALL... IMHO is watch your ass.

The days of 12%-20% are getting replaced by zero zero or negative 20% -40%... PLUS STUPID ASS INTENTIONAL INFLATION.

I see nothing on the American horizon that has legs...

Oil has some potential, but a it is vexing... oil up... cars down... transportation is all fugged up.

EV is a joke... absolutely no backbone... it will be a failed Build Back Better... and ABSOLUTELY NOT the next Dot Com boom. Logistics are in total disarray.

Rona fear is the big Trump card... and fear is waning.

I buy HARD COMMODITIES that I can PHYSICALLY HOLD and later sell or trade.

I am not trying to spread panic... ONLY... just get your chit in order... weird stuff is being DELIBERATELY THROWN AT YOU...

OF COURSE... YMMV

You can bet our congressman have placed their calls way before us serfs

Thanks for the tip! I just picked some up.

Been watching the trading action very closely for 3 days here and I'll tell ya, if Putin gets froggy in the next few days, things may get ugly very quickly.

It is ot all doom and gloom though . You have to have your investments in the right place. Dont have to have every stock in the right place, just enough to offset any losses. Today was a good example for me . The total stock market funds lost .73%, but today I lost $8.46. In other words I lost .00%. I had some steep losses though, like midcaps are getting pounded harder than the largecaps and should have withdrew some of it 3 weeks ago. However, I have a lot of gains today. All my high dividend ETF's made money today in a solid down market. Ishares( HDV ticker) gained .66%.!! That is a fantastic gain for a day like today. The high dividend stocks have been left in the dust the last 10 yrs. and now it is catch up time. The reason they are doing so well cause many are actually undervalued and many give 3 to 4% in dividends. Food did real good today and so did utilities. This says many are done with the high flyen growth stocks . Tyson, Kroger, Kellogs, General Mills Smuckers Jelly did very good today. When the SHTF , people buy food.

I'm missing something. If CPI is around 7% and the 10 year is just above 2% why sell equities with the Fed tightening? Even with a huge increase in rates you won't beat inflation with a bond. Where are big funds taking their money?

They are mostly taking their money in to safer , higher dividend stocks . These stocks, many are consumer staples like Proctor& Gamble, Clorox, 3M, food, and a lot of oil stocks. These are the stocks that have been way under valued for a long time, even 10 yrs. cause the smart investors knew that growth stocks would do good with sinking interest rates cause many growth and tech companies have a lot of debt but were in a good position to do real well . The reason they were in that good position was cause they lost 85% of their value in the 2000 " tech wreck". Those tech and growth stocks took a beating like I've never seen. They were cheap , real cheap form 2002 to 2006? , then the 2009 crash came, made them cheaper. When the bottom, April 2009 came, they were so beat up there was no where else for them to go but up, much like Energy stocks were about a year ago. So many put their easy money in growth for 10 yrs that they all forgot about the older stocks. Then 2004 came the oil crash . Many investors put even more in tech and growth the last 10 years that it became WAY WAY over valued, every bit as over valued as in 1999. The place now is high dividend , older companies that literally no one wanted till 2021. With 0% in the bank, 3 to 7% dividends with an undervalued price tag is very attractive. Verizon, Rio Tinto, 3M, most food like Kelloggs, general Mills , Smuckers Jelly, Tyson, maybe even Heinz Catchup Campbells Soup, too are very reasonably valued, and we will eat , or die is my saying , so food stocks it is. Kroger was cheap , Canagra brand are very reasonably priced. Mining companies are dirt cheap, and some are completely out of debt and sitting on 52 week lows . WIth copper at $4.50 lb. I think mining companies are safe. Rio Tinto pays 10% dividends and should be very safe. Verizon has a safe dividend of about 5% and has been raising their divies for 20? yrs.? Just have to put money in companies that no one thinks of but use every day. . For too long every goof ball was buying Amazon , Apple, Facebook . I dont buy those stocks. I buy good solid companies that pay dividends most of the time.. I did buy Spirit Airlines though, and already regretting it but they should go up soon.

Apple blew out earnings again today.
Thank you

I like your logic ihookem, I just don't see how the fed's policy triggered the group think. I added NUE on what looked like a good deal.

I know my SP100 portfolio lost a sickening amount of value. Going to retire in a month, or maybe June.
Kinda scary, but I have an easy 7 year liquid reserve giving 3.2%. So I don't have to sell stock at these biden killing America levels. Still scary.

Stupid Facebook dragging the entire market down. It's pretty sad when one stupid social media web site, that doesn't even make anything, can impact the entire market.

Ouchy

4%

Here we go again...

My portfolio gained .31% today. I have a lot of Energy, Real estate , food, and utilities did very good today, you know, things we need instead of Facebook and snapchat.