Anyone think or believe we’re at or near the bottom yet ?

A decent close today with quite a volume on the uptick. 10 year Treasury just fell below the 3% mark which is supposedly a positive for good dividend stocks (technically)

Bitcoin up a little. Oils are holding well.

Hoping things are beginning to stabilize somewhat.

I would really really love to be positive, but there are just no metrics to support enthusiasm... at least as I see it.

People are lazy as fugg...

Communists are just getting started...

EVERYONE is overextended to the edge of their nipples...

Short of shorting... what option is there?

Really?

That is a true question.

Tell me some good news.

My loss in the last year ain't been pretty & if I was 48 or 58 I'd just ride it out. But at 68, tempted to take what's left & run.

We still got at least 2 1/2 years of this clown show. My paltry account can't stand it.

Yes, but there is good money to be made if you are actually willing to work.

I think we're nearer to the top than the bottom.

THAT Sir... is a gargantuan statement.

AND I concur 200%.

The bottom when the Dow gets below 17,000. Long way to go.

Hmm. When is that going to happen?

Just riding it through.

7-10 months from now.

I believe that the old adage of “sell in May and go away “ has been overdone.

Having said that I do think it’s a little soon to load up on stocks. The consistent ones with good dividends yields and a solid history of dividends increases might earn a second look right now.

Same here.

I agree. Next 12 months will be interesting.

Stock market is down, spring wheat market is at 14 year highs.


Cattle is currently flat but rumored to go way up by Thanksgiving.

Hard to believe that cattle prices are flat in today’s economic environment but they are.

The feeder lots will be spending quite a lot more money for feed if not already.

We are not even close to the bottom with this administration

I don’t know what to think. As an electrician, I watch copper as it relates to construction. Copper has been falling a lot. The market is bi polar, I am concerned a large retraction is coming.

26000 within the year

Ed, would you feel the same if you were approaching 70? But maybe still not needing to withdraw at this time.

That’s a big consideration for sure

That is certainly true, but I wouldn't mind having the Trump market back to put a little exclamation point on that fact.

Don't see us climbing out until after this midterm election. Would like to see a lot of incumbents tossed out.

You holding faith in another election ish promising, me not so much

HARD COMMODITIES... PHYSICALLY HELD.

Please... Please... Get the memo.

*2019... "Please... Please... people stockpile primers and powder... and bullets"

Lots of risks out there.

But I recall Alan Greenspan saying at one of his many hearings, “Stability, in and of itself creates instability “. I guess stability must be a risk also.

Alan had some doozies.

I think we are close to the bottom. Its going to turn around before too long. Its all in the numbers. Look at the earning and the PE ratio of stocks. Stick with stocks that are not going anywhere. Tech stocks have been hammered to the tune of 30%. There is upside there. Might have to ride out a little more dip, but I think it is time to consider buying in, if you were out. I am putting more in right now, considered this a good buying opportunity. Chevron and Devon Energy have been treating me well. I hope to be able to ride the Nasdaq index ETF back up.

If anyone is really sure the market is going to keep going down, they make leveraged ETF's that perform opposite of the DOW, NASDAQ and the S&P among others. They can return 1x, 2x or 3x, in the opposite direction that the index goes.... It would be a good way to go if you think the market is going to continue down.

Greenspan was a moron...

My wife's 14 year old cat pukes up better chit than he ever said.

Oy vey!

Which is we haven't sold any more old crop wheat!
(small numbers so not a big deal)



But you start to feel a little greedy when it keeps going up.

^^^^
I’ve yet to hear of anyone shorting the markets.

Lots of talk about it dropping further but still no talk of shorting this “known direction “ of the markets.

Disagree.

Your diesel bill will settle that guilty feeling...

Rest assured of that.

Every bill is up!


$6 road diesel here, first time for that.

Really?

Hindenburg Research et al

YTD my biggest holdings are SQQQ, TBT, and TTT.

I don't have a solid enough view of any particular stock to go all out, but the short ETFs have done pretty well so far.

I was speaking of here at The Campfire, Cash. Sorry I wasn’t clear on that.

ETA:
Have you shorted the stock markets ?

That’s one in a row here at The Campfire.

You did well, Stickfight.

So you grew up eating the lead paint off the walls. Then you immediately began eating a diet of Crayolas. That about sum it up?

I'm 60 and am in a position that I really do not need my 401K, which is pretty healthy. I'm currently in tax mode reduction for my three sons when one of us is the last to drop dead.

Lost 20,000 the first quarter and can't wait to see how much is gone this one.

We are riding it out because there are still chances to make some back.

$5.89 here

So you sold for the loss?

I bought some stock tO hedge a big 401 downturn. Hope it works out

Joey will fix this...

He will borrow against the TSPs of Government Workers... to save Social Security... which was borrowed against... to establish Welfare.

It'll be OK.

Trust Joey!

We are down 200k in the same period. we haven’t sold anything. We lost half in the 08/09 downturn and 300k mar 2020. The older you get the more stressful these downturns are. It won’t be long before we move to a less volatile position. It wears me out when the market drops so much.

So, your shoe shine man isnt telling you what stocks are a good deal?

He invented and built the computerised trading models that will destroy the markets some say.

There are still chances to lose all ones ass.

I dont know what Trump.will do to repair whats coming for the Bolshes.

Seeing heads of Big Pharma and Bolshe banks and other swampster business leaders hung for treason may make the markets dip more than a bit.

Clue. Trump said we had been attacked more viciously than at Pearl Harbor which led to WW2.

Im thinking we are in the early stages of WW3 but in unconventional warfare.

The Presidency was also attacked.

Anyone thinking that will go unpunished is sucking MSM BS.

As Q saud, The ending of this wont be for everyone.

Pain coming.

Justice under the Law.

MAGA.

Put your money somewhere safe.... government bonds. Honestly how can or why should the market go back up? Things are getting tight and when there's not enough food of fuel to go around it'll only get worse. Between Russia, the abortion issues and up coming election there might not be much left to worry about. Common sense isn't very common anymore.

Interesting that Biden's policies have big oil and coal producers raking in massive gains. BTU is up over 200% in a year. ESG is another racket.

We gonna bounce around and continue a general negative direction for a while.

3500-3600 S&P.

Yep.

I’m down but my petros have mitigated the drop so far.

I think it will continue to decline until unemployment gets high enough that the Fed reverses course by saying "high inflation is necessary for low unemployment." I'm guessing 5-12 months from now.

Countries like Sri Lanka and Turkey are already collapsing and people are starving in Kenya so our government might turn the money printer back on to "save the world". It's just easier to steal.

Powell is summoning Volcker. History repeats.

Still holding BTU I picked up last year and bought more on the drop a few weeks ago. Sittng mostly on gas, ol, mid stream agriculture, dividend stocks now


Ill pick up amazon, Microsoft, Ford if the drop more this summer. I think the market has a lot more correction to go.

Looking to pick up silver and some gold here shortly . I think silver is in buy territory soon

Look at a chart of the dot com crash. That crash played out over 2.5 years! Buying the dip didn't work out so well that time as the dips just kept coming and coming. I see the same here only ten times worse. I'm all out. Made about 4.5 percent in the first quarter and got out before this drop started. It will take more than yesterday for me to think things are heading in right direction and with these clowns in charge I don't see that happening. With the midterms coming it's no telling what they got planned that will further roil the markets.

Heck no the festivities have yet to begin. It’s not going to be bumpy, more like a turbulent plane ride followed by being sucked out a window, passing through a turbine and spit out without a parachute. Then whacked by 2 of 3 blades on a windmill in Kansas just before a thud.

Good reminder. It is tempting to try and time the dip. You're probably correct this volatility will last a long time like in 2000

It's getting really old. I started buying call options out a year on AMD, AAPL and MSFT. Hoping for at least a bear market rally soon. If I get a bounce, I'll either sell into it or buy the puts and have straddles in case it sells off again.

If you want my wild guess as of today, I think we are probably about to rally in the short term. I picked up a long position in Netphag (NFLX) for a trade yesterday. I feel dirty. I'm not planning on holding it long but think it could attack the open gap down area just to the north of where it is now over the next days/weeks. I'll sell it then or sell it for a small loss if it it does not go my way. I'm also holding a short position in QQQ from 360ish that I have hedged with calls.

I suspect the bottom of this bear will be somewhere between the pre-COVID highs and the Covid lows of 2020. So I think we are perhaps near a bottom but a loooong way from THE bottom. We probably get there in about 16 to 18 months.

Obviously, the Fed could blow up this scenario at will......if they want to completely sacrifice the currency, and if the bond market lets them. They could try and save the market by cutting the discount rate and restarting QE but long term rates could explode upward if they do given the inflation rate. My guess is that they see the safest way out of the mess they created as killing the stock market/creating a recession.

But I reserve the right to be wrong and change my mind on a dime.

Choppy opening this Monday morning but XOM is up and back above 90$/share.

Oh I hope he doesn’t Listen to that 8 Ball..
If he was looking at then and NOW we’d see 50% CD’s
I’m looking for the 401k Stampeders..
Those of you that Voted for Destruction it’s the
Night Before X-Mas….

2.5 years worth of "gains" down the crapper as of today............wally world is fresh out of rose colored glasses as well.

The last time the market was this overvalued was 2000. Chit still has a ways to fall IMO

I 100% agree.

Powell is up for confirmation by the Senate tomorrow.
He said with the policies implemented, he anticipates a soft landing. Not sure if that means with or without landing gear.

Only reason it was as high as it was (during a pandemic?!?!?) was the government handing out obscene amounts of money and Fed Reserve providing excess juice. For Pete’s sake, half the country was on lockdown and the idiots manage to blow another everything bubble.

Low, low interest rates also.

I Bonds looking better and better.

Asia stocks trading and markets looking kinda rough right now.

Don’t look good for Thursday here at home if this is prelude.

Dow, S&P and NASDAQ futures looking poorly in pre-market trading for today’s opening (Thursday).

You can't hide from the downward pressure. Will continue to see-saw, with a general downward trend. 2 weeks ago, I was saying S&P to 3700, I am sticking with that, but I may revise it lower.

Month of May inflation rate by the CPI is predicted to be shown as 9.62%.

But you know how predictions can vary. Could be higher.

I do not think we will be stuck like 67 to 82 for 15 years with the Dow at 800.

I do not think we will spring back in a year, like 87.

I hope we get Desantis for Pres in 3 years and he will talk about reducing taxes and regulations.

I,I,I say thar Boy it’s Congress Profligate Spending that’s the problem.
Boy we’re going to keep spending till something stops US cum Hell or High Water..
I’m thinking those 401k plans..
Plans we got Plans..

^^^
That simple chart tells a lot.

Moving it into 2022 should show some significant drops with the FED “supposedly “ removing money from the system.

The FED touted taking some 90 billions $ chunks out of the system

“Chunks” .. Hahahahaha

Been hoping to see DOW hit 30,000 so I can reenter. Might get my wish this week.

t will drop much lower than that. I bet it will test 25000 or even 20000

The FED’s, George, says that “the FED is not aiming at equity markets as such but its actions might be felt there”.

I feel much better now.

I gotta say that you’re predictions have been spot on.

No.

Good time to setting in cash. Hasbeen

Last Thursday my father in law said the market was at the bottom and now is the time to buy, I'm sure glad we passed. He's about gambled all his gains away day trading speculative stocks. Hopefully interest rates will keep on keeping on.

Been there a while. Might go into more Hard Goods.

When Trump came into office dow was at 19K or so. Good number to keep in mind.

Not a bad close today considering the headwinds.

Reading Forbes saying that fund managers are starting purchases of growth stocks that are beaten down and those purchases are what stemmed the ebb tide around midday.

The Demark Indicators are starting to signal buys in the market.

If you’re not familiar with it you might want to peruse it. It’s an interesting read of how it works and it is one of the more popular used app programs for fund managers especially Hedge Fund folks.

I’m a simpleton and know nothing about anything. But it feels like the stage is set for a big poo poo show for a good while. Bigly poo poo

The big drop is still to come

Anybody wanna bet that the DOW will break into the 19's?

No worries here.

Meaning, it will or it won't?

Ed has balls of steel.



It won't.

Not a betting man, Mirage but I think that the coming FED increases are already factored in. I also think we’re at the selloff fatigue point of the process. Bond yields have started to drop with the rush to safety.

Having said that I’ll say that I think we’re pretty close to or at the bottom of this cycle. It may seesaw for a while and probably will.

A wildcard event could happen with Iran, Ukraine, etc that could again put things on the fast track downward but that’s always a risk at any stage of the economy.

Jmo and reserve the right to change my mind on a moments notice.

Doesn't matter here. Really that simple.

I don’t think so unless something major happens.

Anyone have a guess when the Fed will reverse course and start lowering interest rates? My guess is when unemployment gets above 6% which I think will happen later this year or early next. The more the market crashes the higher the unemployment rate.

Within what time frame? The US of A doesn't stand a chance in the long run. The majority of working people live pay check to pay check. My guess is most are paying interest on credit cards and can't afford their lifestyle. The freeloaders and deadbeats live off tax dollars. The government is broke and has no credibility. There's a bunch of rich people who want to keep what they have and have connections to do so. The middle class is getting hammered by the rich and the poor, and there's no end in sight.
God bless the US of A.

That's what caused the problems we have now. Low interest rates devalue the dollar.

The real number to watch. 40.94

DOW in 1896 about this time.

Break that and we're in trouble.

Treading water here at the open this Friday morning.

if you want to get into the market look at MO, nice divi and typically weather bad markets. Doubt people around the world will lessen tobacco use with more stress

He aint ddumb, He's in well run energy companies

Its tanking pretty fast AGAIN.

It was that “ Red “ Blanket that has brought this to it’s End..

We need more sanctions to drive our economy down further during sky rocketing run away inflation

They sell wine also. Alcohol is a great stress relief also. Unless you are sober and have to put up with someone who isn't.

Very true. The FED has a dual mandate: low inflation and low unemployment. Guess which one has higher priority?

Yessir. You bet.

It’s been a good one, ribka. I’ve owned some since 1993 and reinvested all dividends (DRIPs) since and still holding it.

Smokes:
It’s estimated that there are 250 million Chinese that smoke at least a pack/day. That’s about 5 billion cigarettes per day. MO is there under another brand.

China’s greatest source of revenue is their tobacco tax.

The above came from Money Magazine years ago,

The Market, umm, not terribly bad for a Friday .

What would the ripple effects on the stock market would be if the crypto market completely crashed. Thoughts?

Didn’t know that, Hastings.

Maybe I should start reading that Annual Report like I do with every word of XOM and Brk/b.

As for me , I am out of money anyway. I am not selling anything , mostly because what did go down ( Delta Airlines, General Motors, index funds and bonds are low enough that I figure I should just keep them and even add some if this self employed carpenter would ever get payed. Muni bond ETF's are very low now, even 9% lower than when I bought them in 2016. However, everything I think is a good company is keeping it's price , mostly cause high dividend stocks got no respect the last 10 yrs. Now that is changing. An ETF called HDV ( Ishares high dividend ETF) is up about 4% this year, and it pays 3.5?% dividends. It may go down but sure has done well. My energy , Real Estate and utilities have done very well this year . I am up 3.9% so far this year. I think as for stocks to buy, I buy what seems unusually down , and I buy what I think we will be needing 50 yrs from now. Hanesbrand ( HBI) is way down and no real reason for it. Underwear , socks and t shirts. Unless we are going to go without them , I think this company is a good buy. General Motors is very cheap. The car demand is not getting any less and if they can solve some problems they will sell very well and we need cars real bad. The avr. auto on the road is 13? yrs old. Right now REITS ( Real estate is very fairly valued. We will need buildings for forever . I have bought Realty Income,(O), WP Carey, (WPC) and Agree Realty (ADC). Spirit Realty seems very undervalued . I think Verizon is undervalued by 15%, and AT&T is undervalued , both with 5.2 & 5.6% dividends . Verizon is a better run company, however their debt is even worse than AT&T. There are some real good companies out there but ya really need to be picky.

Thinking of picking up some more Amazon as I feel like it may be near its bottom. The deadline for the 20 to 1 split is May 27th.

After the split I expect it to ratchet up nicely. I may be wrong. I have been before.

[quote=Featherweight6555]Thinking of picking up some more Amazon as I feel like it may be near its bottom. The deadline for the 20 to 1 split is May 27th.

After the split I expect it to ratchet up nicely. I may be wrong. I have been before.[/

I may jump on some too. I believe it’ll ratchet back up if a fellow ain’t in a hurry.

What do you think of Darling Ingredients?

Had no idea alcohol relieves stress but think I’ll try that this evening. Thanks for posting.

Had never heard of them until you asked. Their homepage is pretty interesting. They’d definitely fall into the ESG mode of investments.

I’m gonna check out and see who their biggest holders are.

Much appreciate the question, dime.

ETA:
They have a long list of institutional investors, many of them are the big boys. Also has a nice 52 week range and. 19 p/e.

Keep this one on radar for a while.

Buying in the dips I am always late or early.

Glad i shorted this a few mo..ago.

Clue. Trump and the Patriots are taking the neonazi Bolsheviks down under the D admin.

Now just what major companies are not run by the false jew Bolsheviks?

This schiett show is in the first inning.

Check out Genco Shipping (GNK).

Big dividends (14%)

Good article on them in Barrons .

Yeah, get a Qlue.

ZIM pays 30%. The shippers are making big money right now.

How did you short it?

The Fed is owned by the neonazis who want to destroy the economy and starve us into submission for their planned Economic reset and their owned and controlled cryptocurrency.

Thats why they are destroying the dollar.

Like Janet Yellin said last Nov, she sees no signs of any coming inflation. Yeah.

ZIM and GRIN

Putting this on my watch list. Thanks Whip

ETA:

P/E at 1.35. You don’t see that too often.

His integrity?

On my watchlist. Thank you.

I sold my few shares of Amazon at $3517 in Sept. of 21. Glad I did, it's about $2151 now. Wish I had ditched Generac and Mercado Libre at the same time.

Jaguartx: I don't think hope, optimism, and self delusion are good strategies in the situation w find ourselves in.