I have my entire 401k in a money market today. I made about 4 percent back early in the year and got back out and have been waiting for a sign it's time to buy back. Everyone at work is down 20-30 percent. From reading all the headlines it sounds like late summer will be somewhere near the bottom and maybe we get back to where we were in Jan. 22 in a couple of years. If you were me ( age 61 ) what would you do with a big pile of cash parked? The funds I'm able to choose from have lost 20-40 percent on average and I'm wondering do you buy back the hi risk hi return funds expecting them to make the biggest move in a slow turn around or do you go with the safest funds that lost the least? Nothing about what's going on makes sense so I don't think the usual pattern of investing is the way out or I could be totally wrong. What would you guys do if you were me.............I was thinking about going back in Monday with 25 percent, but it's nothing but bad news and I think the Fed is worried and maybe cash is king and the market is years away from recent highs and I want to sleep at night.

You have not seen the bottom. Raising rates to come, along with Brandons incompetence will slow forward progression for the next year. You will see markets start to get legs after a savior is announced to challenge the potus...

I have nothing, but wifey has company stock, she singing the blues. Friend has same, company cut value by 20%, lost 200,000 bucks, he really sad. I have teachers retirement, hope the fund hasn’t lost too much in the market.

After the Midterms!

JMO, I am not a financial advisor, but the time to buy back in will be at somewhere between 15K and 19K. I really believe it will go that low.

Apple under $115


Buy


Buy

Buy

Right now, the market sucks,and it's not going to get any better soon, i have always thought 401-k is a suckers game, keep you money in your pocket, a least you will know where it is and who is spending it. YMMV Rio7

The Publishers Clearing House Prize Patrol….

I agree with Dave price after the election.

Unless you are a stock picker.

I never got out. I'm 60 and retired.

Ed M

Do you rebalance when it’s a bear?

Or let it ride?

This. Bottom picking is the fools game.....

I'm still in as bonds aren't doing crap. Expect to see a pickup with the mid-term elections.

Been retired since 2008 and despite my monthly withdrawals the accounts are still growing.

What are your goals? Retirement in one year, 5 years or longer?

Can't pick the bottom. There's lots of deals right now. If you are sitting on cash and have a 5 year+ time line, you've got the ability to make a ton.

I think now might be the time to dip you toes in the water. Who knows where the bottom is. It may go lower or not. But I think over time it wii be well above where it’s at now. Hasbeen

On Thursday only 18 % of the S&P was above its 200 day average. Or was it Wednesday?

Any hoo

Things B cheaper

In January of 1966 the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a level of 990. It would continue trading in a range of roughly 600 to 1,000 over the following 17 years.

To a technical trader when a market drops below the 200 day moving average that is a Bear signal.... shoulda got out before that

If you plan to get back in, I would start doing it now. Timing the market is a game for losers. Unless you are really lucky, you will be better off just riding it out. My 401k is in company stock, but its going up, not down. It is not publically traded. My play money is in a NASDAQ ETC and down about 20%, so when it gets back to where it was, I should be up 15% or so. I am not a financial advisor, but I would stay in and ride it out. Since you are out (with your money getting decimated by inflation by the way, which means you are still losing), you have to determine if you are ever going to go back in. I would expect the markets to be higher in a year or so and you will have made 35% if you ride the NASDAQ back up, 20% if you get into the DOW. I dont think Tech is going away, and tech is going to lead us into the future. Its going to continue to play a big role in everything. I am going to keep investing in NASDAQ ETF's or index fund. If this country wasnt killing its own energy industry and paying people to stay home, we would be rolling in good times still. If you beleive in some companies, a group of companies or genre of companies, stay with it. I have made my retirement account through good mutual funds, and they will keep making money going into the future.

What if it was Fed liquidity propping up the markets for the last dozen years?

The best move we ever made was to get out of stocks and pay everything off. It wasn't the best financial decision because of the artificially low interest rates. We have no worries as long as the rent checks keep coming.

Dollar cost average a few percent a month, every month, into S&P500, growth and/or value stocks/funds. Maybe put a tiny bit into some moon shots.

ETA: Make sure you have enough cash/income on the side to ride through a 2-3 year downturn.

Time in the market, not timing the market! I never got out, the rolling 5 year average for the stock market since 1920 has always been positive including the 1929 and 2008 crashes.

I think the bottom will come in September or October. If the democRATs steal enough votes to stay in power it will be Janaury or February 2023.

kwg

I’ll admit I am totally ignorant when it comes to the stock market.

However I decided to get into it as soon as my money from Texas comes through ( roll over).

I seriously doubt the SM will ever fall to Zero. All those rich,(paper) people that don’t have a pot to piss in or a window to throw it out, ain’t going to let that happen.

They are wealthy on paper and such, but…

My core positions include one I found out on the campfire

ET

I
Like it,
Like it.
Yes I do!

Thanks

Viking I have learned a lot listening to cnbc. I like the smart Aleck who is on early B4 squawk, and the senior analyst but I can’t remember his name either.

I'm more than 5 years out but am leery of Jobama's potential incompetence. What are you moving into at a time like this?

Yep, and we weren't in debt 40 ish trillion while everybody sits at home drawing a check. You might oughta figure that in. Just sayin'

Things are different than anytime in the past... uncharted territory

^^^

+ stock market 25k

Dow 3000

That’s funny right there.

I had a new client today

She works for an investment firm that started in 1931


We agreed it’s a unique deal to have two bear markets with a 30 plus % bull between them

What a unique opportunity

I'm consolidating.

- A still
- Guns
- Ammunition
- Rope

Bold prediction. When?

Within a year from now it will at some point between 15 & 19, at least.

Nice. I like specifics.

I have no idea where this will end up but I am a buyer.

Nothing crazy, but I have 1000 shares of ET. Started buying it during the fauxvid crash, I think around April 3rd 2020.
My bet is there’s still at least 50% upside to it.

Don't really care where the bottom is. I'll play with that when I think it's shown itself.

In the meantime, my cash account keeps growing..

from Rent.

I can't spend it fast enough.

CORRECT!

So Mirage, do you think this correction is the same as 1929 or 2008? Did the market come back both times? Maybe you should pull all your money out now (if you have any in the market) at a big loss to stop the bleeding. Just saying.

Are you factoring in Civil War?

Yeah.. Guns and Bibles.

Tag

When I started investing in the market the Dow was at 2400 and we were wondering then if it would ever get to 3000. Now 30+ years later wondering if it will get back to 3000.........

I'm in for the long haul. Won't need retirement $ for 10+ years so I'm staying in. Overall including employer matching I'm up well over 4X what I have put in. There will be ups and downs, the guys that really loose are the ones that get scared and sell when things are down locking in the loss.

I see the IRS is trying to buying all Ammo that’s Available..

So they say..

Seems like one weaponized .gov sludgepit or another has been trying to buy it all up since obammie's first squat..

I never got out.

I've only gotten out twice in 25 years, once in Feb 2020 and again in late March this year. Both have proven to be good moves.

Holy crap, I thought I was a little too bearish.

Unless you forgot a zero?

Same here.

I've been in this game now for over 50 years, lived through all the highs and low, some a lot worse than we're seeing now. I think the crash of 08 saw my investment lose 40%, so far I'm down about 15%
I'm 77, don't need my investment as wife and I have great pensions and SS. My investments are for my kids.
After all those years I did nothing other than stay in the game, and after every downturn was over I ended up with more than when it started, same thing is going to happen again, not tomorrow, or next month, or even next year, but talk to me in 5 years and you'll be glad you hung in there.

^^^^^^^^^^^

If u believe the sun gonna come up tomorrow……


U should have investments………..

CNBC this morning

Never understood the allure of a 401K.... why would anyone let the government control how they invest and when they can access their investments? seems a fools game to me

Hope you were buying like a [bleep] in April of 2020.

Michael Burry is making predictions of a looming crash. Elon called him a clock but his 2007 predictions became a movie.

I follow Doc Burry pretty close also.

Energy stocks haven't been trading near all time highs let alone multiples of all time highs like top shelf stocks from many other sectors. There's little rational rationale for why they got beat up so badly last week.

The thing about ET is it’s dividend is nice

And transfer of natural gas may continue for years if Europe has any true resolve

We havent hit bottom. Still a ways to go. There will be a small rally in the near term, it might just be a see-saw. Always happens right before official declaration of recession.

I targeted small caps last Friday.

The whole damn thing is a scam. In reality we are all broke. The US of A is $30 trillion in debt. And there's only so much you can steal from the taxpayers before a total collapse. This November will be the turning point for our country.

We're in a recession now. Like it or not, believe it or not. The idiots in DC have done NOTHING to prevent it.

Knee jerk gas tax reduction ain't gonna cut it, dumbass.

You aren't passing gas, brother.

And collapse of the dollar and economy?

But, but, but a recession is NOT inevitable!!
I heard Joseph say it himself!

Hey Joey Stool Sample, it is when you do EVERY damn thing possible in your power to invoke it!

She’s up 2 % pre market 2 day!

I promised myself to ease back in when the DOW dropped to 30,000. Last week moved 4% out of "safe" funds into the market. My plan is to do it every time the DOW drops another 1,000 points. Then I'll let it ride unless interest rates move up to 7% or more.

Inflation is the lesser of the 2 Evils ..
Depression or Inflation at this time ..
We are passed Ying and Yang ..
If Inflation isn’t controlled it will lead to Demand Destruction..
I don’t think the Psychopaths understand the Importance of Cheap Energy..
I don’t think the people of Dumbware, Massinsanity and Roach Island Understand their going Down the Rathole with their Blind Allegiance to the Psychopathic Cabal..

Roll Them or They Roll You

Asia markets were up yesterday and a nice start for today.

XOM up over 4$/sh.

How many times did DJT answer the question: "how did you keep inflation in check while the economy was running wide-open"?

Add in $150 trillion of unfunded liabilities.

Time to add to your short on the S&P

If Kornhole and Mr. Crispy Coon get their way on the Newly Ramp Up of Common Core / CRT Legislation the NGO Nazi’s stand to Reep Billions in Federal Funding..
More Mordor All Day ..
All the Time..
They ain’t on our Side


Roll Them or They Roll You

If I could predict the future, even just 30 seconds in advance, I would be infinitely wealthy.

That said, I don't think the market has hit bottom which I think it will be somewhere in the 2020 covid crash range.

Dead Kat Bounce or the Start of a Really Really Big Extravaganza..
Bare with Me ..

Sure am happy to hear all the bearish thoughts.

Old trading saying: When everyone wants to give it, you take it. When everyone wants to take it, you give it.

This market has either bottomed or is very near to doing so. Next couple days will confirm.

Good luck all......

no one truely builds real wealth by stock market investing. don't believe me, ask accountants, ask people who actually made real wealth. They say only .6% of people have a million or more in 401k. stock market investing is mainly about investing for appreciation, its a hope that whatever you buy will be worth more than you paid for it. Why not invest for cash flow instead in other types of investments? worse yet is its likely your 401k investments are taxed when you take them out.

instead of timing the markets, instead of worrying about this or that hot stock. why not seek a true financial education? financial education is NOT taught anywhere in school. indeed academic types normally have notions of financial education that are quite destructive.

My CPA differs grandly from your CPA and mine is very complimentary concerning my IRA and Keogh accounts and what they’ve built themselves up to over time with stock market investing.

I guess I’m the only person who’s ever amassed any wealth via the stock market.

Being an outlier ain’t all bad.

Bitcoin punching through 21,000.

not even close to the bottom. Im doing some swing trading buying and selling for short gains but mainly out


strpf, DQ, cnta,TTE, hive





pay attention to what is happening overseas?

Japan?
China?

Nope. I don't pay attention to any fundamental stuff especially the crap on CNBC. Another old saying...."beware the guru".
I retired after 32 years as a technical commodities trader so its all about the charts to me. Primarily Elliott wave along with a few other indicators.
Currently waiting for a 5 wave rally segment off recent lows to confirm a bottom has been placed.

Lot of different ways to trade a market...this is just my way.

Who was / is Elliot?

I lost so much money short term trading before 1994, you could get rich doing the opposite of what I did.

So I don't time anything since 1994.

I was investing in GOOG and AMZN 9 months ago at the peak, and I still am.

I have always been 10% in cash and still am.

What does it all mean?
If I am too dumb to trade, I will just buy and hold big tech.

Google "elliott wave theory" for an overview

The Elliott Wave theory was developed by Ralph Nelson Elliott in the 1930s. After being forced into retirement due to an illness, Elliott needed something to occupy his time and began studying 75 years worth of yearly, monthly, weekly, daily, and self-made hourly and 30-minute charts across various indexes.1

The theory gained notoriety in 1935 when Elliott made an uncanny prediction of a stock market bottom. It has since become a staple for thousands of portfolio managers, traders, and private investors.

Elliot Wave is a System conceived by Robert Prechter (sp) years ago. In a manner of speaking he’s a guru.

Lasso Byrinyi developed another method for his use.

You would admit that stock market fundamentals are different now that the Fed completely controls and manipulates the stock market?

Not true. Prechter uses elliott wave and is noted for many predictions., but Elliott theory has been around since the 30's

True, Westman.

Prechter was the one who revived it and wrote tomes on it. Without Prechter few if any would know or even care about the Elliot Wave.

Elliot and Prechter are both gurus in their own right.

JFC ol toot. When you got up this morning you never even heard of Elliot or Prechter until you hit google

How accurately are Elliot waves?

Are they more predictable bears 🐻or bulls?

What wave is most important?

It took me many years working with a man that I consider to be one of the best ever at using Elliott wave to really understand that it is far more complex than it might seem. I am still not an expert but have had success over the years. I live with 5 and 10 minute charts and also layer in other technical indicators.

Are they more predictable bears 🐻or bulls?

What wave is most important?


Simply put, Elliott wave theory postulates that markets move in the direction of the overall trend in 5 waves and corrections, counter trend moves, are in three waves. So, both bullish and bearish moves are accounted for.

The third wave is generally the strongest.

BTW, the absolute best at Elliott I have ever seen is a man named Avi Gilburt. Absolutely the best......

What's the ten year yield today?

What is the European central bank doing this week?

I follow Avi at Seeking Alpha

He's been one of the more accurate analysts

Not trying to be a smart azz, but I don't know and don't care. If it has an effect it will show up on the charts.

and it's all based on Elliott wave and a couple other things.

it depends on what you define as real wealth. The IRA and keogh accounts aren't bad, an IRA can really be invested in anything. peter thiel a pay pal founder I think has several billion in his IRA, he invested his shares of paypal in it. Its not the account its the type of investment. most IRA's and 401k are invested in the stock market. like I said stats don't lie only about .6% of people have more than 1 million in their 401k.

real wealth? 250k to half a million a year in passive income. this will take 5 to 10 million in golden goose funds to pull off most likely. If you or someone you know built a fortune of 5 to 10 million $$$ by 401k or IRA investing in the stock market. I personally want to talk to them!!! why because I want to know how they did it. because I can't find anyone who has and I have asked everyone I can think of who would know. from mortgage people who see others taxes to CPA's that do peoples taxes. the only people I see get wealthy in the stock market or those who are some sort of special deal like a private placement before a company goes public. or a public company's founders who take the company public Those people get insane rich.

PayPal down from 300 last year to 72 now. Great returns there lol

Cummins I see your point but just for grins look at a chart of the DJIA values from, say, 1982 to 2022.

Westman just for clarity sake when I wrote “True, Westman “, above, I was speaking of what you said as true. It is so.

This is States' rights. Not for those stool sample proxy chkunts.

How about 1955 to 1985.

Thirty years , and then factor in inflation?

As long as you don't need the money the stock market is probably a good play. I've never been able to let someone play with my money. Sure wish interest rates would go where they belong, instead of where the government thinks they belong.

This man gets it.....

Technical trading and charts, cool stuff. I dabbled years ago and my son in law is making a fortune doing it. We have great conversations regarding technical patterns

Yep 30 yrs of flat...
If you need to retire soon you could be SOL

Cumminscowboy is correct...
Why would anyone let the government control their money via an IRA or 401K ?????

Are you day trading something like the spx or as an indicator for individual stocks?

Trump in the WH and Gold Std.

Yes brother Jag!
A gold backed crypto would be cool

Dimecovers5: Been there done that - learned that lesson!
I am doing exceptionally well and have been for a long time now without being subjected to the insider induced fluctuations of that schithole full of "money changers".
Hold into the wind
VarmintGuy

My father made much more big tech investing than 41 years of engineering.
I made much more big tech investing than I did 30 years of engineering.
My son has made much more from big tech stock options than wages in 14 years of engineering.

I don't ever day trade. I wait for Elliott set ups (short or long, doesn't matter) and try to ride a multi wave move. I would say that I am more of a longer term trader. This market has been involved with one of the largest bull markets ever so I am trading it from the long side. I tend to apply hedges when expecting pullbacks larger than a few days.

I trade mostly index futures. Some energy futures but I did that for way to long to like it anymore....

A monkey reading chicken bones could have made bank from 2010 til this February 2022.


Now it gets interesting. We are in uncharted territory now. Be interesting how effective wave analysis will be


I see USWS is up over 30 per cent after hours today

Make believe.

Thanks for taking the time. Pretty interesting.

Yes it is.

To the original poster. If you want to live on the dividends then I would put it in SPYD ( S&P 500 higher dividend stocks) it pays about 3.6% . There are others, HDV, VYm and SCHD. These ETF's make up a lot of my portfolio. These ETF's avr. about 3.1%. If you have $1 million , this will give you $30K each year. The companies in the ETF's are very solid dividends. If I was you I would just put it in and be happy you dodged about a 15% downturn. It will likely go down more, but if this is the bottom, ( I dont think it is) then your portfolio starts loosing upside, and you have already avoided a lot of downside. I think we will se a sucker rally and then another downturn . We are heading into a recession. We have 5 weeks before the GDP numbers come out and it is not looking good. We already had a 1.4% drop in GDP and then revised to -2% GDP. There is nothing that says it's going to get better. I am staying in like I always did and buying more if it drops more. I will live off my divies but now only have about $20,000 per yr. in divies and I am 59 with a plan to hang it up by 62 cause I am so sore all the time . Then After I retire , I will get bored and get a phone call and decide to make $50 hr. . Why not? But I will collect SS as soon as I can and work a little bit too.

In cash position your not losing money except to inflation, while sleeping in peace.

Nobody knows how long the bear market will last, but the average length I recently read, is about 13 months from the last high (Jan. 2022). Maybe longer !!!!

So, the trouble with a 401k is if you start putting money in and back out to follow the ups and downs every few weeks, you will become a victim of the 401k rules. They will warn you maybe a couple of times you are not supposed to take money out of a position until it has been in at least a month or you will get a penalty. If you keep doing it they will freeze your account meaning no shifting for a given time and you can get stuck in the wrong position during a deep drop.

My gut feeling is you could put your money into whatever fund you like and be up and down in 1 to 3 week cycles with the overall direction continuing down. How would you feel about that in 6 months?

If the Size of Mordor on the Potomac keeps expanding and the spending which is associated with it one should look for a Bang not a Wave ..
Superficially on the Elliott Wave it should be showing a Tsunami of Biblical Proportions..

you are correct about that, but not that many people invest that way. warren buffet, and nearly all the real pro investors say invest in index funds. They all say NONE of the mutual funds will beat the index over time. They may beat it for one year, but NEVER for the long haul. Warren buffet also says when he dies he wants his money invested in index funds. I like investments I get paid to own, and that pay me money and that I can structure so that I never pay taxes on. but dave ramsey says "good growth stock mutual fund" LOL. I was always like ummmm where. dave ramsey does have some good ideas but investing isn't one of them. neither is hard and fast rules on debt, like he has.

at the end of the day, find people that are wealthy and ask them how they did it. very very few people ever do, most never get asked. most of the self made people are eager to tell their story. Don't ask a "financial planner" ask the people that have done it themselves.

Most people have lost 1/3 from their 401s in the last 6 months, now tell me again how wonderful 401s are. Rio7

good point. Again look at market return from 1955 to 1985. or 2000 to 2010

Powell juiced the markets today. again

https://seekingalpha.com/news/38507...-yields-retreat-and-commodities-cool-off

Over the past 20 years, Berkshire is just a percentage point ahead of the S&P 500, with a 10.3% annualized return against 9.2% for the index.May 6, 2022

Over the last 20 years MSFT AMZN FB NFLX AAPL GOOG TSLA NVIDIA have beaten 10%/year by a mile.

Think it's time to look forward, not back Rio7

The only thing I'm looking for to get back into the Market - is Money.

There is stocks then there are stocks. Depends on what you are looking for. Until recently I had a bunch of Shell stock.
Paid about 6 percent in dividends. Gained a little in value each year.
Recently they cut the dividend in half. Time to move on. But while I owned Shell stock it sure paid more than bank interest.
Hasbeen

You haven't lost a thing until you clear your position. Draw down, yes. Loss? Not unless you sell your holdings.

Let's see what they look like in a few months after this correction is done.

Your few months is going to be at least 2 or more years, of no growth, keep drinking the Kool- Aid.. Good Luck Rio7

Demand is Declining… PPI is rising which will be passed along shortly..
Prepare for Stagflation.. Then Deflation ..
Now if the Lunatics decide to stop spending money and reduce the size of Government we stand a Chance ..
Umm Good That why Campbell Soup Kitchen is Umm Good

Roll Them or They Roll You

401Ks are harder to navigate than inheritance. Never fear, the 401K shall return.

This is States' rights. Not for those stool sample proxy chkunts.[/quot


I guess you haven’t seen enough of Great Constitutional Disappearing Act..
There are NO Constitutional Protections anymore..
Case in point Rousting Old Men out of Bed at Night on a Lie told to the FISA Court ..
Their still doing it..
A District Court Judge refusing to let the DOJ drop a case against Flynn..
Executive Orders used beyond the Scope of Intent of the Constitution..
3 Impeachment’s on what Evidence..
One of them after the President left Office ..
States Rights .. Please ..
The Republic has Fallen..
Last Stop ..Destroy the Core Principal of the Military and it’s Readiness by a Faux Government..
It took longer for Rome to Fall..

Don't disagree with anything you mentioned. That doesn't mean I won't keep doing the things available to me to roust these useless f****** communists.

of course, are you nostradamus? read what I said. I didn't say you can't cherry pick single stocks that perform well. of course you can. since you are that good at picking single stocks BEFORE they go up maybe you should be a hedge fund manager. you will make billions. berkshire doesn't really invest like they used to in the beginning. indeed I bet if you asked WB he couldn't duplicate what was made in todays market if he had to start with nothing. I have read his book, quite lengthy, BTW. they got their start buying companies who had assets that were greater than the stock price. meaning if you sold the companies assets you could sell them for more than the share price. This was when your average person had no idea how to find the companies financials. this was way before the internet. it also took a great deal of skill, which he had to look at a companies financials. beating the S&P is an extreme feat and shows why so many want to invest in his holdings.

My big criteria is for it to stop going down every fugging day.

^^^
A Man of uncommon common sense.

Like.

Made me laugh, Jake!

Old Houst is waiting for a 24/7 mask mandate from Biden or Kameltoe.

I would expect it to find support in the 28,000 range. And would be a buyer if it rallies from there on increasing volume, keeping a close moving stop in case the support fails.

A Cold Day in Hell?...

AS soon as we know the Republicans have solid majorities in both houses.

Well, from an Elliott Wave perspective this week couldn't have ended better. The structure looks very clean and it's doing all the right stuff that we need to see to confirm that a bottom has been placed. Next week should prove or disprove.....Could be fun.

I think we rally and fill some gaps, put in a lower high and continue lower. There could be a decent bear market rally happening soon, but I think we have another 20% -30% lower to go. The analysts haven't really brought down earnings estimates yet, and they will be lower almost across the board. The housing market is seizing up, energy prices plus continued shortages will put the hex on the market.

If I've learned anything over my years is bet on the winners and short the losers. And folks there is no bigger looser than Biden, there will be much more pain ahead.

It’s almost like the stock market likes SCOTUS reigning in the Federal and State bureaucratic behemoths with a couple of large cases, isn’t it?

I thought the possibility of the same.

It was a very good closing for the weekend.

Makes me wonder what positive impact that a favorable ruling in the Chevron case about regulatory overreach could have.

Interesting question.