TxVince
The majority of my elk hunting over the last 17 years has been in units 86 & 861. During that period my family and I have killed 18 elk in those two areas. 5 of them were mine, all cows.
Not one of the 18 was killed on the national forest.
Based on the most recent available statistics, (2015) you have a 13% chance in 86 and an 18% chance in 861. This is for all seasons, sexes and manner of take. For the 2nd rifle in 86 (which is what I assume you are most interested in) you would have a 18% chance of an antlered and a 11% chance of antlerless ... unit wide.
I have seen elk within a quarter mile of my home below Alvarado and from there all the way to the very top of Horn Peak.
I can assure you a public land hunt in those units will not be easy. Not impossible, but far, far from easy.
The short answer to your question is yes, you can day hunt from your cabin. There will be elk within 3-4 miles and on the NF. I've done it. I don't recommend it. Staying in a spike camp at 11,000 feet will give you a great deal of advantage ... because, in my experience most elk are killed just at sunrise or sundown. That's my opinion. (I've also killed a bull at noon while sitting under a tree eating a sandwich) If you are in position at first light your odds of success will vastly increase.
If you want to know more, PM me.
