The cliche is that bull markets climb a wall of worry and bear markets ski down the slope of hope.
We had a crappy economy and a crappy president the last 8 years and the market has tripled. People either would not buy or went short because of it and were relentlessly squeezed by funds flush with free cash from zirp as well as companies buying back stock with free borrowed money. The wall of worry was built by the crappy economy which caused the central banks to flood the world with money thus providing rocket fuel for the bulls. This market has killed more bears than Davy Crockett and Daniel Boone put together.
What if Trump is actually a great President and his policies succeed? Govts stop printing money and loaning it to companies for free to buy back their stocks because conditions will have improved or maybe they just want to eff Trump. Earnings improve and catch up to what has been priced in. EVERYONE finally gets bullish....but rates rise and other investments offer competition to stocks. The smart money FINALLY gets to sell to mom & pop who have avoided the market the entire up cycle. Bears are extinct. The market tops and goes down. People who have profited from buying the dip do it again but it doesn't work. The market will look "cheap". They say "but great earnings, but Trump" and stay in as the market skis down the slope of hope and history repeats. A few smart bears will make a great amount of money very quickly....probably George Soros if he ain't dead by then.
I figure it will play out something like this but no one really knows exactly how or when until its in the rearview mirror.
