Home Forums Hunting & Shooting Hunter's Campfire without 1150 trump will lose the nomination, trumpeters take a breath!

Even Carl Rove said 45-50 of the unbound PA delegates (54 total) will vote for Trump, mirroring the vote of the public.

With the momentum that Trump has now, he has better odds at getting above 1237 than coming in lower than 1237 at this point of the race.

IN, NJ, WV, CA all leaning Trump, some heavily. The states that he's not running strong in, like OR and WA, he will still pick up some delegates after finishing second.

It will be a catch 22 for Cruz whether he tries to ditch the agreement with Kasich and campaigns in OR and NM, or if he lets Kasich go head to head against Trump in those states right at the end. Does Cruz risk going back on his word and looking like a liar, or does he stand by his word and let the weakest man in the race go head to head against the strongest for those states delegates? What would the aftermath of those actions entail?

While I can not support anyone myself chances are good that DJT will get the 1237. Given type of supporters DJT has those in charge of RNC aren't brave or it it dumb enough? not to give it to him if he comes close to that number.

Totally agree that the country is run by too many lawyers who are in it to help lawyers. There are good ones, I don't mean to make a blanket statement, but there are too many Bills and Hillary's.

But, even more than that, I'm fed up with the influence selling and corruption in government between politicians and the wealthy. Where would the Clintons have ever risen to if it wasn't the backing of rich supporters?

They can still change their mind at any time up until they take that first round vote at the convention... and if that first round vote doesn't confirm Trump, then I believe he's [bleep]!

A lot depends on what the new 2016 rules will be and whether the 8 are allowed back in.

As its been said a million times its up to the party to select a nominee, not the public!


Phil

Well no, they actually can't change their minds.

Have it your way... but!

Phil

Unbound delegates can't change their minds?

Um. Okay. Reference for that claim?

There are good lawyers but based upon the job itself, it lends itself nicely to slick talking, back stabbing, deal makers always looking for a loophole to weasel out of. That's my biggest dislike of Cruz. He's just another lying lawyer, so why would I vote for the very personification of everything that's wrong with Washington?

Regarding influence and corruption you and I agree.

State rules pertaining to the election of the delegates and delegate assurances of voting for the candidate who won their district...as to first ballot.

Of the 254 unbound delegates that now exist, you can bank on at least 74 of them going to Trump right now.

I can't even believe folks are still giving any thought to Cruz pulling a Hail Mary in late round ballots.

It's comical.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/republican_delegate_count.html

Trump has 992 delegates, with around 20 to still be assigned.

There are 502 delegates in the remaining primaries.

He needs 245 of the remaining 521 and will get 200 or so from NJ and CA.

That leaves 45 in the remaining 8 states, 279 delegates.

There's no mathematical model where one of the two other candidates can pull enough delegates keep Trump from 1237+

He'll be 1270+

Kent

Donald Trump Secures Vast Majority of Unbound Delegates in Pennsylvania



Jordyn Phelps/ABC News
April 28, 2016


Donald Trump has won a vast majority of the unbound delegate count in the state of Pennsylvania, according to an ABC News analysis. Of the 54 available free-agent delegates in the state, 28 said they will support the Republican front-runner, while 13 additional delegates -- who said they would vote for the winner of their congressional district on the first ballot -- will also back Trump.

Only three delegates said they plan to vote for Cruz on the first ballot. Nine others are uncommitted.

While Trump won a resounding victory in Pennsylvania's popular vote Tuesday night, it was not assured that he would walk away with all of the state's 71 delegate votes because of the state's unusual delegation selection process.

Only 17 of the state's delegates are bound to vote for Trump on the first ballot, while voters directly elected the other 54 — three from each of the state's 18 congressional districts – to act as free agents at the convention.

Trump argued on Tuesday night that delegates have a "moral obligation" to support him on the first ballot as the winner of the state's popular vote.

"There's a moral obligation, at least on the first round, to support the person that won," Trump said in a victory speech on Tuesday night. "Now, we didn't only win, we won big."

But some outstanding delegates aren’t so sure.

Aaron Cohen, a delegate elected in the Pennsylvania's 2nd district, ran as uncommitted and has yet to declare who he will support, but told ABC News Tuesday night he will "probably…not support Trump."

While results were still coming at the time of Cohen's interview, he said he'd "have to evaluate" what he'd do at the convention if Trump is the resounding winner of both his district and the statewide vote.

But James Klein, who was elected in the 5th district and ran as a Trump supporter, told ABC News Monday that he is "wall-to-wall Trump."

"It's time for the party to begin to see the reality here and bring itself together," Klein said.

Wayne Buckwalter, a 6th district delegate who plans to vote for Trump on the first ballot, told ABC that he expected a Trump blowout.

"The suicide pact with Cruz and Kasich sabotaged themselves," he said. "That proved that the system is rigged against Trump."

Pennsylvania represents the largest potential delegate haul of the 136 total unbound delegates who will be free to vote for whomever they choose on the first ballot, likely holding the power the tip the scales in a tight convention.

ABC News' Jim Hill, Lauren Pearle, Jessica Puckett, John Kruzel, and Alana Abramson contributed to this report.

I think you've missed the events of the last 2 months where Trump supporters are threatening the lives of delegates and their families if they publicly announce for anybody but Trump.

But you go on with your belief that NOT publicly stating they won't vote for Trump means they WILL vote for Trump.


The panic and counting of delegates every 5 minutes is kind of funny. Sit back and relax. All Trump has to do is walk in with 1,237 delegates to vote for him. Most likely will happen as long as he acts like a decent human being for 3 months.

Again...YAWN.

Scramble and cackle all you want, dude.

Most are moving on to the general election now.

Glad you're taking my advice to calm down and quit counting delegates every 5 minutes. Out of your hands and mine.

You taken up fishing yet? You should give it a try. Very relaxing.

This is what I have been seeing/reading abut as well. Trump has been collecting 51% of the delegates, and he needs 49% from here on out to get 1237. He's on pace to do it, but it is a pretty tight race for him. Not really tight for anyone else though.

The Constitution isn't a suicide pact.

Exactly!! Don't understand how Trump can say I'm going to protect and preserve the second amendment and someone from the cheap seats shouts, "I told you he was for big government".

Amazing that ONLY some 40M-50M people have bothered to participate in the primaries so far. I'd say the Idontgiveashats are in the majority.

He'd bore the fish to death....yawn

This primary has the biggest turnout of all time. Trump inspired people to vote.