Home Forums Hunting & Shooting Hunter's Campfire Stock market will rise 50 percent, esteemed economist says

If he knew the future he'd be out making tons of money and having a blast spending it instead of writing BS articles.

What a dumb ass.

Investing is not as hard as some folks want to make it out to be. You find quality companies that you understand, you buy them and hold them. Is it really any harder than that ?

Some people need help with this important part, like me.

What goes up will come down. Case in point, DJI closed at 14,164 on Oct 9th 2007, 18 months later on March 9th, 2009 it closed at 6547.
History will repeat itself. Market is overpriced. .

Where's Billy Ray Valentine? I wanna go deep into OJ concentrate

Like GM, huh?

Broad based selection, dollar cost average over years, don't jump in and out - you will never "time" the market, get more conservative after 60 and enjoy life.

GM will be a winner. I am long GM and it is one of my largest investments.

When I first started in the market amongst the most sage advice was to " Listen to the leading economists, then do exactly the opposite..." It seems true more often than not, so this impending 50% rise worries me....

Yep. It's worked for me for the last 30 years. I've got a a half dozen years until 60 but I've ridden the ups and downs and dollar cost averaged across a broad range of low-cost mutual funds and it's worked. I've had friends who have tried other methods and some have done well and some have done poorly so figure out what works for you and do something because sitting on the sidelines of planning for your future is no plan at all.

Spot on. Started when I was 23 and retired well set at 53.

This!

"Timing the market" is an undefined term. Taking profit is a good a strategy, as is bargain hunting. Both are, at the core, market timing strategies. Take profit when PE's get high, go bargain hunting when they are low.

Let me get this thread back on point, which has evidently eluded you Warren Buffets.



One of Trumps big goals is to reduce Corp Tax rates to spur reinvestment and to bring back billions in revenue currently sitting offshore. Trump may not know dick about the Sultan of Brunei's politics, but he damn sure knows how to make a buck. (That is not bogus book deals you Leftists lurking)

This is a well respected economist telling you that even pea brains should understand that if and when he gets the tax cuts, America will prosper and businesses flourish and the market will be primed for an extended run.

That also means more people employed, less on the dole, better opportunity for all and a robust economy. Big win!

One more time for reading comprehension impaired.

See above. Means more cat food and bullets for Nyalubwe!

Stock Market Forecasting – The “Zero Validity Zone”

This page provides a running tally of stock market forecast accuracy. If other, larger studies are any indication, it will eventually settle on a 50% accuracy rate, same as a coin toss.

It’s important to understand that stock market forecasters cannot add value to your investing performance. Acting on their hunches will reduce your profit. It’s best to call them something that reminds you to ignore them: Z-vals.

The term z-val (“zee val”) is a shorthand introduced in The 3% Signal for “zero-validity forecasters” and “zero-validity environment.” The latter phrase was coined by Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman in his book Thinking, Fast and Slow, where he wrote that “stock pickers and political scientists who make long-term forecasts operate in a zero-validity environment. Their failures reflect the basic unpredictability of the events that they try to forecast.”

This page is the Z-val Zone of Stock Market Forecasts.

http://jasonkelly.com/z-vals/

We understand that you can't foresee every possibility. The point here is not your portfolio. The point remains that if/when Trump gets his Corp Tax cut, the business climate will be much healthier than without it. I don't think you can rationally debate that.

Ditto. FIL lost $50,000 in GM warrants or preferred shares or some such whem zero "saved" them.