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Joined: Feb 2010
Posts: 3,842
Campfire Tracker
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Campfire Tracker
Joined: Feb 2010
Posts: 3,842 |
If he knew the future he'd be out making tons of money and having a blast spending it instead of writing BS articles.
Quando omni flunkus moritati
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Joined: Jan 2009
Posts: 23,319
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Jan 2009
Posts: 23,319 |
"All that the South has ever desired was that the Union, as established by our forefathers, should be preserved, and that the government, as originally organized, should be administered in purity and truth." – Robert E. Lee
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Joined: May 2004
Posts: 2,819
Campfire Regular
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Campfire Regular
Joined: May 2004
Posts: 2,819 |
Investing is not as hard as some folks want to make it out to be. You find quality companies that you understand, you buy them and hold them. Is it really any harder than that ?
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Joined: Jan 2009
Posts: 23,319
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Jan 2009
Posts: 23,319 |
. . . You find quality companies that you understand, . . . Some people need help with this important part, like me.
"All that the South has ever desired was that the Union, as established by our forefathers, should be preserved, and that the government, as originally organized, should be administered in purity and truth." – Robert E. Lee
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Joined: Mar 2002
Posts: 803
Campfire Regular
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Campfire Regular
Joined: Mar 2002
Posts: 803 |
What goes up will come down. Case in point, DJI closed at 14,164 on Oct 9th 2007, 18 months later on March 9th, 2009 it closed at 6547. History will repeat itself. Market is overpriced. .
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Joined: Mar 2004
Posts: 2,454
Campfire Regular
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Campfire Regular
Joined: Mar 2004
Posts: 2,454 |
Where's Billy Ray Valentine? I wanna go deep into OJ concentrate
Long Live The Judge
Thinking of moving to Florida? Don't........
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Joined: Jan 2016
Posts: 95,777 Likes: 4
Campfire Oracle
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Campfire Oracle
Joined: Jan 2016
Posts: 95,777 Likes: 4 |
Investing is not as hard as some folks want to make it out to be. You find quality companies that you understand, you buy them and hold them. Is it really any harder than that ?
Like GM, huh?
Ecc 10:2 The heart of the wise inclines to the right, but that of a fool to the left.
A Nation which leaves God behind is soon left behind.
"The Lord never asked anyone to be a tax collector, lowyer, or Redskins fan".
I Dindo Nuffin
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Joined: Nov 2005
Posts: 22,737
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Nov 2005
Posts: 22,737 |
Broad based selection, dollar cost average over years, don't jump in and out - you will never "time" the market, get more conservative after 60 and enjoy life.
My home is the "sanctuary residence" for my firearms.
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Joined: Jan 2009
Posts: 23,319
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Jan 2009
Posts: 23,319 |
GM will be a winner. I am long GM and it is one of my largest investments.
"All that the South has ever desired was that the Union, as established by our forefathers, should be preserved, and that the government, as originally organized, should be administered in purity and truth." – Robert E. Lee
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Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 78,306 Likes: 2
Campfire Oracle
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Campfire Oracle
Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 78,306 Likes: 2 |
When I first started in the market amongst the most sage advice was to " Listen to the leading economists, then do exactly the opposite..." It seems true more often than not, so this impending 50% rise worries me....
"...the left considers you vermin, and they'll kill you given the chance..." Bristoe
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Joined: May 2005
Posts: 17,140 Likes: 2
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: May 2005
Posts: 17,140 Likes: 2 |
Broad based selection, dollar cost average over years, don't jump in and out - you will never "time" the market, get more conservative after 60 and enjoy life. Yep. It's worked for me for the last 30 years. I've got a a half dozen years until 60 but I've ridden the ups and downs and dollar cost averaged across a broad range of low-cost mutual funds and it's worked. I've had friends who have tried other methods and some have done well and some have done poorly so figure out what works for you and do something because sitting on the sidelines of planning for your future is no plan at all.
If something on the internet makes you angry the odds are you're being manipulated
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Joined: Nov 2002
Posts: 33,758 Likes: 7
Campfire 'Bwana
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Campfire 'Bwana
Joined: Nov 2002
Posts: 33,758 Likes: 7 |
Broad based selection, dollar cost average over years, don't jump in and out - you will never "time" the market, get more conservative after 60 and enjoy life. Yep. It's worked for me for the last 30 years. I've got a a half dozen years until 60 but I've ridden the ups and downs and dollar cost averaged across a broad range of low-cost mutual funds and it's worked. I've had friends who have tried other methods and some have done well and some have done poorly so figure out what works for you and do something because sitting on the sidelines of planning for your future is no plan at all. Spot on. Started when I was 23 and retired well set at 53.
Conduct is the best proof of character.
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Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 11,212
Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 11,212 |
Broad based selection, dollar cost average over years, don't jump in and out - you will never "time" the market, get more conservative after 60 and enjoy life. This!
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Joined: Jan 2002
Posts: 12,879 Likes: 5
Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Jan 2002
Posts: 12,879 Likes: 5 |
Broad based selection, dollar cost average over years, don't jump in and out - you will never "time" the market, get more conservative after 60 and enjoy life. "Timing the market" is an undefined term. Taking profit is a good a strategy, as is bargain hunting. Both are, at the core, market timing strategies. Take profit when PE's get high, go bargain hunting when they are low.
Sic Semper Tyrannis
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Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 23,373 Likes: 2
Campfire Ranger
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OP
Campfire Ranger
Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 23,373 Likes: 2 |
Let me get this thread back on point, which has evidently eluded you Warren Buffets. The key to Shiller’s call is President Trump’s tax policy. “If factors go right and there are tax cuts for corporations, it’s not that hard to understand.” One of Trumps big goals is to reduce Corp Tax rates to spur reinvestment and to bring back billions in revenue currently sitting offshore. Trump may not know dick about the Sultan of Brunei's politics, but he damn sure knows how to make a buck. (That is not bogus book deals you Leftists lurking) This is a well respected economist telling you that even pea brains should understand that if and when he gets the tax cuts, America will prosper and businesses flourish and the market will be primed for an extended run. That also means more people employed, less on the dole, better opportunity for all and a robust economy. Big win! One more time for reading comprehension impaired. The key to Shiller’s call is President Trump’s tax policy. “If factors go right and there are tax cuts for corporations, it’s not that hard to understand.”
"The Democrat Party looks like Titanic survivors. Partying and celebrating one moment, and huddled in lifeboats freezing the next". Hatari 2017
"Hokey religions and ancient weapons are no match for a good blaster at your side, kid." Han Solo
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Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 23,373 Likes: 2
Campfire Ranger
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OP
Campfire Ranger
Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 23,373 Likes: 2 |
When I first started in the market amongst the most sage advice was to " Listen to the leading economists, then do exactly the opposite..." It seems true more often than not, so this impending 50% rise worries me.... See above. Means more cat food and bullets for Nyalubwe!
"The Democrat Party looks like Titanic survivors. Partying and celebrating one moment, and huddled in lifeboats freezing the next". Hatari 2017
"Hokey religions and ancient weapons are no match for a good blaster at your side, kid." Han Solo
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Joined: Jan 2009
Posts: 23,319
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Jan 2009
Posts: 23,319 |
Stock Market Forecasting – The “Zero Validity Zone”This page provides a running tally of stock market forecast accuracy. If other, larger studies are any indication, it will eventually settle on a 50% accuracy rate, same as a coin toss. It’s important to understand that stock market forecasters cannot add value to your investing performance. Acting on their hunches will reduce your profit. It’s best to call them something that reminds you to ignore them: Z-vals. The term z-val (“zee val”) is a shorthand introduced in The 3% Signal for “zero-validity forecasters” and “zero-validity environment.” The latter phrase was coined by Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman in his book Thinking, Fast and Slow, where he wrote that “stock pickers and political scientists who make long-term forecasts operate in a zero-validity environment. Their failures reflect the basic unpredictability of the events that they try to forecast.” This page is the Z-val Zone of Stock Market Forecasts. http://jasonkelly.com/z-vals/
"All that the South has ever desired was that the Union, as established by our forefathers, should be preserved, and that the government, as originally organized, should be administered in purity and truth." – Robert E. Lee
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Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 23,373 Likes: 2
Campfire Ranger
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OP
Campfire Ranger
Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 23,373 Likes: 2 |
We understand that you can't foresee every possibility. The point here is not your portfolio. The point remains that if/when Trump gets his Corp Tax cut, the business climate will be much healthier than without it. I don't think you can rationally debate that.
"The Democrat Party looks like Titanic survivors. Partying and celebrating one moment, and huddled in lifeboats freezing the next". Hatari 2017
"Hokey religions and ancient weapons are no match for a good blaster at your side, kid." Han Solo
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Joined: Jan 2016
Posts: 95,777 Likes: 4
Campfire Oracle
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Campfire Oracle
Joined: Jan 2016
Posts: 95,777 Likes: 4 |
Ditto. FIL lost $50,000 in GM warrants or preferred shares or some such whem zero "saved" them.
Ecc 10:2 The heart of the wise inclines to the right, but that of a fool to the left.
A Nation which leaves God behind is soon left behind.
"The Lord never asked anyone to be a tax collector, lowyer, or Redskins fan".
I Dindo Nuffin
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