Article on Sweden. It is both negative and positive on the Swedish approach. In Sweden's defense of its approach is that half of their deaths have been through nursing homes. Several nursing homes were infected early on. As their head epidemiology points out in another interview, nursing homes are impossible to lock down. Caregivers must come and go along with support staff. Sweden acknowledges nursing homes have been a problem.
Sweden also is counting on herd immunity concept that will see them in a superior position after the first wave. Time will tell. The fact that an advanced country has taken a different approach will give us two real models to learn from for the future.
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Business Sweden stayed open during the coronavirus pandemic: Is it a model for the future? GUY DAVIES and BRUNO ROEBER Good Morning AmericaMay 27, 2020, 5:04 AM EDT
Sweden stayed open during the coronavirus pandemic: Is it a model for the future? Sweden has pursued its own distinct path when it comes to tackling the coronavirus pandemic. By choosing to stay open rather than instituting a policy of lockdown, Sweden's policies have drawn both international praise and criticism.
While Sweden's decision early in the pandemic to allow bars, restaurants, schools and shops to remain open was almost unthinkable for the rest of the world under lockdown, the Scandinavian country is now being looked at by some as a model for the future.
Recently, Republican Sen. Rand Paul said the US must “keep an open mind” when it comes to the Swedish approach, as governments across Europe and the US chart a way out of lockdown.
Epidemiologist Anders Tegnell, the architect behind Sweden’s policy, has repeatedly doubled down on the merits of his country's approach. Sweden, he said, is playing the long game despite the country having a much higher death rate than its neighbors.
“In the autumn, there will be a second wave. Sweden will have a high level of immunity and the number of cases will probably be quite low,” Tegnell told The Financial Times earlier this month. “But [neighboring] Finland will have a very low level of immunity. Will Finland have to go into a complete lockdown again?”
PHOTO: Customers sit and eat at a restaurants terrace in Stockholm, Sweden, May 22, 2020. (Loulou D'Aki/Bloomberg via Getty Images) PHOTO: Customers sit and eat at a restaurants terrace in Stockholm, Sweden, May 22, 2020. (Loulou D'Aki/Bloomberg via Getty Images) Only time will test Tegnell’s hypothesis, but as countries around the world, and particularly the U.S., ponder what the coming months will look like, the case of Sweden is a fascinating case study. According to one sociologist, the country’s alternative path is a chance to “learn more” where so many others have shut down to stop the spread of COVID-19.
Tegnell’s approach to the pandemic has proved highly controversial. Social distancing was encouraged by government officials but for the most part Swedes have continued on with their lives. They were still able to send their children to school and visit bars and restaurants, although gatherings of over 50 people remain banned.
Sweden, with a population of 10 million, has so far had 4,029 officially recorded COVID-19 deaths, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. But the country has a far higher rate of infections and deaths than its Scandinavian counterparts.
According to the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Sweden has an estimated 328.6 cases and 39.3 deaths per 100,000 of the population. Norway has 156.4 cases and just 4.4 deaths respectively. Denmark and Finland have similarly low figures. Those same statistics still indicate that Sweden has a lower number of deaths per capita than Italy, Spain and the U.K., all countries that have enacted stringent lockdowns.
This is a “stark difference” to the rest of Scandinavia, according to Stefan Hanson, a Swedish infectious disease expert and signatory to a letter from top scientists criticizing the health authorities' response.
"When we compare the other Nordic countries in terms of mortality, it is clear that we are having roughly 500 deaths per week, and in Norway they had seven deaths last week,” Hanson told ABC News. “If we see the mortality per million, we are five times higher than all the other Nordic countries, taken the number of inhabitants into consideration."
“There is no doubt that this strategy is causing a lot of unnecessary deaths,” he added.
Tegnell and other government officials have repeatedly dismissed the idea of going into lockdown and reversing Sweden’s course.
The government has not said it explicitly, but the strategy of staying open has the de facto goal of “herd immunity” – the view that if enough people have become immune to the virus, the spread will slow, Hanson said. In the U.S., Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, has dismissed the idea, saying the first step is to develop a vaccine.
Herd immunity would require between 60% and 80% of the population becoming immune to the virus. But new data shows that only 7.3% of the inhabitants of Stockholm, Sweden’s capital, has COVID-19 antibodies, meaning the pursuit of immunity, given the likely increase in deaths, is a “dangerous approach,” Hanson said.
"Even those [countries] who have had very severe epidemics, lots of deaths, lockdowns ... they have had very low immunity levels in the population," he said.
MORE: Italy and Spain begin to reopen after coronavirus lockdown, rest of Europe to follow suit
PHOTO:State Epidemiologist Anders Tegnell of the Swedish Public Health Agency attends a press conference to update on the COVID-19 coronavirus situation on May 25, 2020 in Solna near Stockholm, Sweden. (Jonathan Nackstrand/AFP via Getty Images)
Yet Sweden, like the U.S. and the rest of Europe under lockdown, has suffered from the virus entering nursing homes, or care home facilities. Residents of these homes account for almost half of coronavirus deaths in Sweden. But in mainland Europe, the percentage of nursing home deaths is remarkably high, according to data compiled by the European Center of Disease Control. That problem is not unique to Sweden’s approach.
With warnings that Europe will experience a second wave of infections this fall, there is arguably a long-term rationale behind the Swedish model: that over time infection and death rates will equalize between comparable countries that locked down and those that did not.
‘Wealth is health’
In the U.S., Fauci has been adamant that the development of a vaccine, rather than "herd immunity," is crucial in defeating the virus. But with a minimum of 12-18 months before a vaccine could be ready, if at all, and a further period allocated for the distribution of the vaccine, it’s clear that the coronavirus is going to be a part of our daily lives for a long time, according to Tegnell.
In the rest of Europe, the economic impact of the lockdown is already being felt, although the true extent is being masked by generous government loan schemes. In the U.K., the government have pledged to pay 80% of furloughed workers' wages until October, but that hasn’t stopped the Bank of England from forecasting the worst recession in three centuries. The European Commission has warned that the continent’s economy will contract by 7.4% this year.
A number of economists have supported the government’s policy. Lotta Stern, a professor of sociology at Stockholm University who recently co-authored an article suggesting that Sweden’s approach would soon be the world’s, told ABC News that the country has taken “the least bad option” and the issue is more complex than a simple trade of health and economics.
MORE: How dying and mourning have changed around the world amid coronavirus pandemic
“That framing is entirely wrong,” she said. “Wealth is health. Whichever way you count, freedom and flexibility usually perform better than central command.”
Sweden’s economy has too suffered, she said. But by keeping schools, bars and restaurants open, the country has not seen the same rise in unemployment figures elsewhere in the world.
“As surreal as things are here in Sweden, it seems so much more surreal in the U.S. and U.K.,” she said. “Swedes don’t realize how oppressive other countries have become. What is their exit strategy? The more we learn about the disease the more it seems that they have overreacted.”
Ordinary Swedes in general have been very supportive of the government. Fredrick Kahånsson, a risk management consultant at a construction company in Stockholm, told ABC News that despite how the country’s policy is perceived, there is “no right or wrong,” and it must be up for ordinary people to decide how to live their lives.
“I do support Sweden’s general approach because what you see in the other countries when they open up it starts spreading again,” he said. “So if you can’t really terminate it with a complete lockdown this is just going to be a prolonged process.”
A viable model?
Sweden benefits from a number of favorable conditions when it comes to encouraging individuals to take responsibility for how they interpret social distancing. The country has a strong public health and education systems as well as near unparalleled levels of public trust in the government.
Yet for Hanson, the stand-off approach has proved too costly and he argued the country is “definitely not a model” for the international community to emulate in the long run.
MORE:Up to 59 million jobs at risk in Europe
"First of all you have to focus on the disease, to get that under control," he said. "The control is in the other Nordic countries. We don't have to have the lockdown, we just have to be a little bit stricter with the rules."
The economic consequences of lockdown will be felt with a greater intensity than the coronavirus pandemic itself, according to Stern.
“Other countries will have to let up on lockdowns, yes,” she said. “They panicked and hoped to buy enough time. But I think they will increasingly see that their medicine was worse than the disease.”
Early indications suggest that Sweden’s GDP fell by just 0.3% in the first quarter of 2020 compared to 3.8% in the rest of the Eurozone, the European economic bloc which holds the Euro as currency, according to The Financial Times. It is still too early to say whether Sweden will reap the economic benefits of "lockdown-lite" in the coming years.
But with a vaccine still at the very least a year away, there may be a matter of inevitability in how countries like the U.S. and U.K., so badly hit by the pandemic, chart their future.
'We are going to have second wave and third wave -- I think the rest of the world is going to have to do more of the Swedish approach because there is not going to be a world to save if we shut everything down again, and again, and again,” Kahånsson said.
"The Democrat Party looks like Titanic survivors. Partying and celebrating one moment, and huddled in lifeboats freezing the next". Hatari 2017
"Hokey religions and ancient weapons are no match for a good blaster at your side, kid." Han Solo
......... Early indications suggest that Sweden’s GDP fell by just 0.3% in the first quarter of 2020 compared to 3.8% in the rest of the Eurozone, the European economic bloc which holds the Euro as currency, according to The Financial Times. It is still too early to say whether Sweden will reap the economic benefits of "lockdown-lite" in the coming years. ........
Good to see a number given related to economic impact of not going on lock-down (or as heavy of a lockdown).
Good article and I'm interested to see how this turns out. ~5x deaths to save ~3.5% GDP and gain ~7.3% of the population as immune (hopefully) is where it's at now.....very rough figures and not the whole story. No one will know until after the fact.
In the end, the most important point for me is that individuals could choose their level of lockdown.
Anybody that thinks this whole virus bullshit was not just a follow on to the Russia, Ukraine hoaxes, is either an idiot or a democrat traitor (or both)
A good principle to guide me through life: “This is all I have come to expect, standard lackluster performance. Trust nothing, believe no one and realize it will only get worse…”
I'm interested in following because I understand their rationale. They are willing to take more casualties upfront with the idea that they end the epidemic in their country sooner and they have many less casualties on the back end. More or less they expect a tough April - July then by September they expect to break the back of the epidemic their and the numbers plummet permanently starting in the Fall.
While the rest of the world waits for months/years for a vaccine that may or may not come, they are done with it except for a few sporadic cases here and there that they can manage. Meanwhile, the rest of the world deals with a fire they can't put out.
Will their way work out? Will it only work in a country of highly educated homogeneous people vs. one with low education or one with herds of low/no education immigrants? We'll see. I'm going to watch.
"The Democrat Party looks like Titanic survivors. Partying and celebrating one moment, and huddled in lifeboats freezing the next". Hatari 2017
"Hokey religions and ancient weapons are no match for a good blaster at your side, kid." Han Solo
Good Morning America is my source for factual news
Its all right to be white!! Stupidity left unattended will run rampant Don't argue with stupid people, They will drag you down to their level and then win by experience
Anybody that thinks this whole virus bullshit was not just a follow on to the Russia, Ukraine hoaxes, is either an idiot or a democrat traitor (or both)
I assume you mean the politicization of our our response. Of course the democrats will try to use it to take down Trump.
Sweden's deaths per million are about 25% higher than ours.
Anybody that thinks this whole virus bullshit was not just a follow on to the Russia, Ukraine hoaxes, is either an idiot or a democrat traitor (or both)
I assume you mean the politicization of our our response. Of course the democrats will try to use it to take down Trump.
Sweden's deaths per million are about 25% higher than ours.
Maybe,,,
A good principle to guide me through life: “This is all I have come to expect, standard lackluster performance. Trust nothing, believe no one and realize it will only get worse…”
Anybody that thinks this whole virus bullshit was not just a follow on to the Russia, Ukraine hoaxes, is either an idiot or a democrat traitor (or both)
I assume you mean the politicization of our our response. Of course the democrats will try to use it to take down Trump.
Sweden's deaths per million are about 25% higher than ours.
Do you have any numbers on the incidental deaths, (suicide, drug od, etc.) related to the lockdown that we can compare?
I'm interested in following because I understand their rationale. They are willing to take more casualties upfront with the idea that they end the epidemic in their country sooner and they have many less casualties on the back end. More or less they expect a tough April - July then by September they expect to break the back of the epidemic their and the numbers plummet permanently starting in the Fall.
While the rest of the world waits for months/years for a vaccine that may or may not come, they are done with it except for a few sporadic cases here and there that they can manage. Meanwhile, the rest of the world deals with a fire they can't put out.
Will their way work out? Will it only work in a country of highly educated homogeneous people vs. one with low education or one with herds of low/no education immigrants? We'll see. I'm going to watch.
Yes, the rationale is clear....the results won't be clear until hindsight is available. To reach the estimated 60-80% of the population becoming immune for "herd immunity" is a whole lotta sickness left to go if they're currently at ~7.3%. They may need to get a lot sicker a lot quicker if they're going to reach herd immunity before a vaccine is available. Also for consideration is mutation of the virus which could throw a real monkey wrench in the works....and how long antibodies after being sick with leave someone immune.
How it plays out economically and socially can raise a lot of eyebrows. I'm not pushing one or the other. Interesting times.
Yes, the rationale is clear....the results won't be clear until hindsight is available. To reach the estimated 60-80% of the population becoming immune for "herd immunity" is a whole lotta sickness left to go if they're currently at ~7.3%. They may need to get a lot sicker a lot quicker if they're going to reach herd immunity before a vaccine is available. Also for consideration is mutation of the virus which could throw a real monkey wrench in the works....and how long antibodies after being sick with leave someone immune.
How it plays out economically and socially can raise a lot of eyebrows. I'm not pushing one or the other. Interesting times.
That 7.3% currently may not be accurate. If you want some more info, here's a BBC interview with Swedens Epidemiologist that has a rational answer for all criticism. He gets asks the pointed questions and has good responses.
The whole corona-virus issue is not made-up BS. It is real and the US death toll is now jut below 100,.000 and climbing. We account for over 28% of the world's deaths and 29% of the cases. Who knows where it will end before a vaccine is developed, tested and mass-produced?
The bigger issue is not just the death rate, but the lingering effects of those who survive. Respiratory and major organ damage results that leave many victims with diminished physical conditions.
The CDC says the death rate among symptomatic infected is 0.4%, and about 33% of infected never have symptoms at all. This is far lower than the 3.4% death rate the WHO published in March, which was lower than the one they published in February.
"Whichever way you count, freedom and flexibility usually perform better than central command.”
Key phrase right there. Sums up the whole issue, as well as the socialist/capitalist debate. Ironic that such a statement would come from Sweden, a semi-socialist nation.
The biggest problem our country has is not systemic racism, it's systemic stupidity.
The whole corona-virus issue is not made-up BS. It is real and the US death toll is now jut below 100,.000 and climbing. We account for over 28% of the world's deaths and 29% of the cases. Who knows where it will end before a vaccine is developed, tested and mass-produced?
The bigger issue is not just the death rate, but the lingering effects of those who survive. Respiratory and major organ damage results that leave many victims with diminished physical conditions.
If it's not BS, why does the press do their best to suppress effective treatments?
Yes, the rationale is clear....the results won't be clear until hindsight is available. To reach the estimated 60-80% of the population becoming immune for "herd immunity" is a whole lotta sickness left to go if they're currently at ~7.3%. They may need to get a lot sicker a lot quicker if they're going to reach herd immunity before a vaccine is available. Also for consideration is mutation of the virus which could throw a real monkey wrench in the works....and how long antibodies after being sick with leave someone immune.
How it plays out economically and socially can raise a lot of eyebrows. I'm not pushing one or the other. Interesting times.
That 7.3% currently may not be accurate. If you want some more info, here's a BBC interview with Swedens Epidemiologist that has a rational answer for all criticism. He gets asks the pointed questions and has good responses.
![[Linked Image from i.postimg.cc]](https://i.postimg.cc/nhqZTmxJ/Screen-Shot-2020-11-08-at-5-01-55-PM.png)
