Home Forums Hunting & Shooting Hunter's Campfire Ukraine might just win

I have spent a couple days trying to make sense of the logistic problems Russia has in Ukraine. I first world army should never be seeing any of that nonsense, and I was looking for reasons why.

What it looks like to me is that the money that has gone into so many people's pockets in Russia has come from a lot of places in the military, and in a lot of different ways. What is left now is a paper tiger that can only just barely get out of it's own way. All of those missiles/rockets/bombs that are littering Ukraine are not an accident. All of the rubber tire vehicles that get stuck, break down and run out of fuel are not an accident. The absence of CAS to cover ground forces is not an accident. The absence of hundreds/thousands of precision guided cruise missiles is not an accident. The absence of proficient first line ground troops is not an accident. This was done systematically by skimming at many levels and the forces are now quite literally hollowed out by the politicians and oligarchs. I would bet a lot of money at this point that even if Putin decides to fall back and concentrate on Donbas/Luhansk/Crimea, that moving all that equipment back to Russia's border will cost Russia even more than it cost them to get it into place spread across Ukraine, and it will be more costly in Russian lives lost in the process.

That equipment has all been stressed beyond it's maintenance requirements getting into position to be used. They have taken a [bleep] load of piss and vinegar out of the troops. They have lost a sizeable percentage of the equipment to combat, breakdown, fuel exhaustion and abandonment. The retreat to Donbas/Luhansk/Crimea will be much harder to accomplish of and by itself. The huge arms flow into Ukraine will just amplify the losses in the pull back.

I think there is an excellent chance that just getting the hell out of Ukraine without making the situation much worse might well tilt things far enough that the calculus of fighting a better armed more determined Ukraine for the foreseeable future makes Russia abandon any hope of defending Eastern Ukraine, much less annexing and keeping it.

Ukraine on the other hand will be able to make an unchallengeable argument to NATO that they have a military well and truly capable of adding hugely to NATOs capability, and deserving of entry into NATO.

Putin will very shortly be history.

How’s the Lutheran brother hood doing there for y’all?

Don Lemmon is a muse for many.

What the Ukie’s have lost .. They’ve Lost forever..
Putin will have to Consolidate he’s not running the Board..
I’m of the mind that the Ukie’s aren’t getting the Volume Offensive Weapons needed to push Putin back..
Reason is Putin will challenge any Supply Delivery and we haven’t had any Clashes with NATO or Euro supply efforts..
If we do then all Bets are off..

It appears that right now, Ukraine could beat Russia.


The problem is, Russia still has a lot of cards to play. Draft more soldiers. Tactical nukes. Etc.


Ukraine, on the other hand, has all their cards on the table. No ace in the hole.


Who wins this war will come down to how bad Putin wants to win it.

I wouldn’t think based on this war, that the Russian military is a paper tiger. I think Russia’s biggest problem is getting their soldiers to get behind bombing and killing Ukranians. I mean wouldn’t this sort of be the same thing as sending our military into Canada and telling our soldiers and airmen to bomb and shell cities in Canada? There are a lot of Russians spread through Ukraine.

The old Soviet Union would have won the war with Ukraine in a matter of a few days, because they would have sent wave after wave of soldiers, nonstop, until there were no more Ukrainians left. It would not matter if they lost 20 times more men than the enemy did, because life was cheap and unimportant to the Commies.

Now days, even though you still have some old Commies running things, they don't have the control over the people as they did during Stalin's time, and they can't sent wave after wave of men to their death. Also, I suspect that the Ukrainians have a lot more to fight for than do the Russians soldiers, so that plays a part in why the Russians haven't won yet. Russia still has the ability to win this war, but at what cost?

No, it won't. Putin cannot win in Ukraine now and he knows it. He cannot take any of his objectives so far, much less hold them against an insurgent action that will apparently go on forever. That's why he's trying out the sales pitch of pulling back to Donbas/Luhansk. He has no Chem/Bio/Nuke option available, because he knows that if he should try that it will bring the full force of NATO down on Russia and he for certain dies somewhere in that. Maybe he tries to back off, rebuild his military and in 10-15 years down the road try again. It takes a long time to put that military back together, and he has enough civil unrest already that the leash he is on won't extend that far.

They cannot keep trucks running. They cannot keep tanks running. They cannot keep fuelers running. They cannot put anywhere near the number of aircraft in the sky that they need to, much less unchallenged. Their bombs are not exploding, Their missiles do not hit their target, the missile warhead do not explode, Their tanks are basically target practice and instead of losing one or two they lose whole columns. They can't feed the troops, They can't equip the troops. They can't shelter the troops from the weather. This is system wide breakdown and not all that damned far from collapse. It takes a long time to train an individual just to be cannon fodder. It takes a lot longer to train them to repair and maintain the equipment needed to fight. All of that costs a LOT of money, and he just tanked the Russian economy with this failed war.

Right now, the Ukrainians have more tanks than when they were invaded. Tanks THEY know how to operate and maintain. Maybe not state of he art tanks, but tanks that can fight on at least an equal footing against the army they took them from.

Said that 3 days into this thing.

That said, Russia has now floated the idea of a full scale offensive in Poland, the Baltic states and Kazakhstan as well for "de-nazification" according to the MP Savostyanov.

That changes the calculus for Ukraine quite a bit.

There is that, but Russia's most pressing problem is they have so poorly prepared for this that they do not have the logistic and people to support the troops and equipment to prosecute the war. They have demonstrated that in spades. When the US goes into battle we have 10% of the people doing the fighting and 90% of the troops in the logistical tail. Heavy equipment without adequate maintenance is not fighting, it's a stationary target.

logistics is arguably the most important part of any military. for every bullet fired theres a metric schit ton of work that goes on behind the scenes to get it there.

I suspect that most of that is right. The calculus of the speed with which thousands of troops can die today makes a hell of a difference though. Just a simple thing like Russia's inability to clear a path alongside roads the must travel on almost by itself makes it not worth the cost to try to use the road.

Win what?

Oh, I forgot, that's the dots the MSM is pushing.

Just push everyone into thinking Putin and the Russian war machine is tanking. Then all can say Let's Go Brandon, we can take him.

Sheesh. So easy to lay the trap for suckers.

I'll tell you how to know what to believe, believe the opposite of what the Bolshevik cabal tells you to believe. It can save your country's ass.

Um, that can't be true. Putin is saving the world.

🙄

On a serious note, when officers on every level were skimming money intended for equipment, maintenance, and personnel, your logistics are going to be a cluster.

Amateurs talk strategy and tactics, pros talk logistics.

That kind of talk out of Russian mouths is worth about as much as Russian currency now. Russia cannot even get into Ukraine, much less through it to attack Poland. All they can do is bluster about Chem/Bio/Nukes and we have EFFECTIVE tools to shoot down a lot, maybe all of what they might try to use. And they have to worry about not enough getting through to do enough damage to prevent their own incineration.

That changes the calculus for Russia a lot.

Exactly, and I am pretty certain that is precisely why Ukraine turned into such a cluster fck for Russia. They stacked up 200,000 troops on the border and sent most of them into the country to fight (die).

I'd say this is fairly accurate.

https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/larry-...-has-been-defeated-whats-left-is-mop-up/

Um, why would you think that is accurate?

Something sure isn't adding up. Ukraine is whipping Putins ass so hes thinking of taking on Poland.

Hahaha. UGBSM

So now the deep state has come up with the push that Putin is crazy and Poland and NATO better get the US in a nucler war preemptive strike because Putin is THINKING of hitting Poland.

UFR

Go for it suckers. Make Soros and Klaus Schwab happy.