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Joined: Jul 2010
Posts: 2,814
Campfire Regular
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OP
Campfire Regular
Joined: Jul 2010
Posts: 2,814 |
I am thinking of applying to Montana next yeat for the Elk/Deer combo. Anyone know what the odds are?? I have never been out west and its time to go...I have a connection in Montana that why its my first choice.
Hunt...
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Joined: Dec 2004
Posts: 20,379
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Dec 2004
Posts: 20,379 |
Terrible hunting in Montana, try Wyoming! 
I replace valve cover gaskets every 50K, if they don't need them sooner...
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Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 78,306 Likes: 2
Campfire Oracle
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Campfire Oracle
Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 78,306 Likes: 2 |
Yep...nothing but dinks here...and Ive thinned them out considerably....
"...the left considers you vermin, and they'll kill you given the chance..." Bristoe
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Joined: Oct 2002
Posts: 96,121 Likes: 1
Campfire Oracle
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Campfire Oracle
Joined: Oct 2002
Posts: 96,121 Likes: 1 |
Make sure you bring your own sheep, they're funny that way.
"Dear Lord, save me from Your followers"
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Joined: Dec 2008
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Campfire Oracle
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Campfire Oracle
Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 78,306 Likes: 2 |
"...the left considers you vermin, and they'll kill you given the chance..." Bristoe
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Joined: Aug 2007
Posts: 115,424 Likes: 13
Campfire Sage
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Campfire Sage
Joined: Aug 2007
Posts: 115,424 Likes: 13 |
Try here. http://fwp.mt.gov/hunting/planahunt/drawingStatistics/Might want to PM Rick Bin. I recall him giving a fair amount of advice for non-residents some time back. Maybe you could steer him toward your thread. Travis
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Joined: Aug 2007
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Campfire Sage
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Campfire Sage
Joined: Aug 2007
Posts: 115,424 Likes: 13 |
Pffft, tried to get him to hold a sheep once and he got all self righteous on me... Travis
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Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 78,306 Likes: 2
Campfire Oracle
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Campfire Oracle
Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 78,306 Likes: 2 |
I hate that when he goes " holier than thou"....
"...the left considers you vermin, and they'll kill you given the chance..." Bristoe
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Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 749
Campfire Regular
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Campfire Regular
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 749 |
I don't know what the theoretical odds are for drawing a NR big game combo tag, however for the last ten years friends (from Pennsylvania) hunt with me every two years.
They put in for tags each year.
Their success for tags has happen every other year.
There is a 'family application' if you have a family member living here, (it is suppose to increase your chances of success).
I have never used it.
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Joined: Apr 2008
Posts: 5,087
Campfire Tracker
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Campfire Tracker
Joined: Apr 2008
Posts: 5,087 |
After the new Initiative passed during the last election, I would think all the old drawing odds are out the window. If the outfitter tags added to the non resident tags and with the new increase in fees, draw odds should be better. If the new initiative is in place by next spring.
ddj
Many men go fishing all their lives without knowing that it is not fish they are after. - Henry David Thoreau
The best part of hunting and fishing was the thinking about going and the talking about it after you got back. - Robert Ruark
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Joined: May 2003
Posts: 23,064 Likes: 7
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: May 2003
Posts: 23,064 Likes: 7 |
CBB: If I recall correctly the odds for the non-resident Big Game Combo drawing are 50/50 or 50%.
Be sure when you apply in 2,011 to suffer the additional indignity of BUYING the "bonus point" option.
This allows that if you are unsuccessful in 2,011 then you will get a "bonus point" and your name will then be enetered TWICE in the 2,012 drawing. That gives you about a 75% to 80% chance of success there in 2,012.
Best of luck to you in the drawings and in your Hunt.
Hold into the wind
VarmintGuy
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Joined: Oct 2009
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Campfire Regular
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Campfire Regular
Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 1,478 |
Not sure anyone can predict the waves of I161 but know that the final price of out of state tags is still facing the political process.
This year roughly 11,000 out of state applicants faced a 50/50 chance.
Next year the total tags in the drawing is going to be closer to 15000. Leading to probably higher odds.
The caveat is that the outfitters now in order to break even on clients are going to over recruit applicants to the draw. This first year that is probably not going to happen nor with the price jump to $700 is that going to attract the usuals.
I suspect the chances of drawing will be pretty high next year.
Last edited by KRAKMT; 11/15/10.
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Campfire Tracker
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Campfire Tracker
Joined: Apr 2008
Posts: 5,087 |
Not sure anyone can predict the waves of I161 but know that the final price of out of state tags is still facing the political process.
This year roughly 11,000 out of state applicants faced a 50/50 chance.
Next year the total tags in the drawing is going to be closer to 15000. Leading to probably higher odds.
The caveat is that the outfitters now in order to break even on clients are going to over recruit applicants to the draw. This first year that is probably not going to happen nor with the price jump to $700 is that going to attract the usuals.
I suspect the chances of drawing will be pretty high next year.
I agree. I hope my name is on one of the tags again. ddj
Many men go fishing all their lives without knowing that it is not fish they are after. - Henry David Thoreau
The best part of hunting and fishing was the thinking about going and the talking about it after you got back. - Robert Ruark
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Joined: Jul 2010
Posts: 2,814
Campfire Regular
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OP
Campfire Regular
Joined: Jul 2010
Posts: 2,814 |
Thanks for all the info. I had no idea there was a change in place with outfitter/non-res tags. I'll be contacting Uncle Dave
soon to start figuring all this out. There will be two of us applying..
And about the sheep...I'll leave the knee high barn boots at home!!
Hunt...
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Joined: Mar 2009
Posts: 58
Campfire Greenhorn
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Campfire Greenhorn
Joined: Mar 2009
Posts: 58 |
CBB. Since two of you are applying make sure to apply as a party that will up your odds.
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Joined: Apr 2008
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Campfire Tracker
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Campfire Tracker
Joined: Apr 2008
Posts: 5,087 |
Just a question, does apply as a party up your odds? I thought the party recieved a party number so it is treated like a single application. However I was assuming this.
ddj
Many men go fishing all their lives without knowing that it is not fish they are after. - Henry David Thoreau
The best part of hunting and fishing was the thinking about going and the talking about it after you got back. - Robert Ruark
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Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 16,167 Likes: 9
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 16,167 Likes: 9 |
Don't see how a party ap's gonna help the odds.
Old rule of thumb was about a 50/50 on drawing first time.
I was also told it was about a 30% chance on drawing cold.
Me and a buddy drew three years in a row once, followed up by missing three in a row, even with the bonus points.
Crap shoot at best
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Joined: Nov 2003
Posts: 28,605
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Nov 2003
Posts: 28,605 |
Don't see how a party ap's gonna help the odds.
Old rule of thumb was about a 50/50 on drawing first time.
I was also told it was about a 30% chance on drawing cold.
Me and a buddy drew three years in a row once, followed up by missing three in a row, even with the bonus points.
Crap shoot at best dont feel bad, im a resident and if the odds say 33% i draw on the first and sixth year with bonus points....gotta find out who my FIL is bribing at FWP cause for him if the odds say 33% it means he draws a tag 6 out of 8 years.....
A serious student of the "Armchair Safari" always looking for Africa/Asia hunting books
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Joined: Mar 2003
Posts: 6,935
Campfire Tracker
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Campfire Tracker
Joined: Mar 2003
Posts: 6,935 |
I had a note from MT FWP on this, and they told me:
"There will be more general licenses available for the drawing since the Outfitter Sponsored licenses have been abolished.
Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks"
I will be in the draw next year looking for a deer license and a special area tag (I drew the deer license this year, but not the special tag).
jim
LCDR Jim Dodd, USN (Ret.)
"If you're too busy to hunt, you're too busy."
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Joined: Jan 2001
Posts: 29,951 Likes: 10
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Jan 2001
Posts: 29,951 Likes: 10 |
With Montana's non-resident price increase, Ones odds should be considerably better in 2011 than they were in 2010.
Last edited by 1minute; 11/16/10.
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