Home Forums Hunting & Shooting Hunter's Campfire Who here really thinks domestic drilling lowers the price of oil/gas?

Just a geology problem, fellas, nothing to see here....



What's $300 billion dollars kept in the U.S. instead of the Middle East? We're all just one big happy global family, right?

USGS estimates 10.4 BILLLION bbls in ANWR. That's more than the U.S. consumes in an entire year, yet the "pinkos" claim there is nothing we can do.....

Reminds me of the scene from Goodfellas....

"We had a problem.
We tried to do everything we could.
You know what I mean.....we couldn't do nothing about it."

Geology, fellas.... fahghetaboutit....

Nobody huh?

What has been pointed out is various things that affect supply and demand. Where has anyone pointed to anything related to the price of crude (or refined gasoline) in the United States that is outside of supply or demand?

It may not lower it but it sure won't raise the price.

Might not lower it, but it sure as heck ain't gonna cause it to rise...

PS- great minds think alike...

Scoop Jackson, a very senior Senator, said that increasing the cost of gas would not cause anyone to use less gas.

There are not just ninnies on 24HCF, they are running governments.

Don't assume that anyone can fathom useful underlying principals that predict the future.

What does it all mean?
Most people are stupid.
The few smart people have mostly wrong things in their head.
Don't expect much, and you won't be disappointed.

The falling US $$ is a major contributor to the increased price of crude. It has been stated many times here. Pure speculation, or flat out guessing that demand will increase is not a true supply and demand issue. Today we have 2.7% (app 3m/bbls) more crude than we had at this time last year. The price of crude on May 18, 2010 was in the neighborhood of $69. So let's see, more supply today, $30/bbl higher. Supply and demand is not a major contributor anymore.

Speculation IS 'demand'. (The devaluation of the dollar is also an affect of supply, albeit the supply of dollars.) The point is, the demand for crude (which obviously is not just for refined petroleum products), the biggest cost of goods in the manufacture of gasoline, does in fact affect the price. Refined gasoline is a commodity so it has it's own market but it is obviously not disconnected from the raw goods (crude). Yes there are a lot of other things that play into the equation but to attempt to minimize what positive effect increasing crude production will have is simply ... falling for it.

If demand is constant, then again, why don't oil companies charge $10/gallon for gas? If we can agree there is some portion of gasoline use that is NOT discretionary (as commonly defined) then there is some intersection on the supply/demand curve that would have them maximizing profits far above what they currently make. Or... is there? Surely those evil oil companies aren't missing an opportunity?

My BIL is the president and CEO of a fair sized retail chain/distributorship on the west cost. My brother retired from BP/Amoco, another brother did a stint for Sigmor, my first job out of college was working with BP in their retail distribution unit. I just mention that to say I saw/see nothing evil about the practices of the 'evil oil companies' when it comes to pump pricing and I saw first hand, the free market at work when it came to that pump pricing.

There are are two things the American public can do to affect pump pricing. Increase supply and/or reduce demand. The rest is theatre.

disclaimer: I do concur that speculators should be required to have the finanicial means to execute their contracts as otherwise (as currently operating) it is an unnatural anomaly on the supply/demand equation.

Picture of overdamped, underdamped, and critically damped responses.

Speculators or futures buyers speed up the response of the market.

I can see a criticism of scalpers, when there is finite supply tickets, but long term markets, the speculators provide some value for the little profits they take.

What about this fact of life?

Now that's funny!

OPEC still bases their crude pricing/exchange on the Dollar, I believe.

Crude prices versus Dollar to Euro valuation:

Dec 2008 (crude) $35.99 (Euro) �.78
Jun 2009 $67.68 �.70
Dec 2009 $71.75 �.66
Jun 2010 $75.09 �.82
Dec 2010 $89.43 �.76
May 2011 $117.12 �.67

As one can see their is no correlation between crude prices and the value of the dollar, at least in comparison to the Euro. In fact the dollar was stronger in relation to the Euro in Jun 2010 than it was in Dec 2008 and yet crude prices had more than doubled.

In fact the dollar was nearly the same against the British pound from the same time frame, Dec 2008 to Jun 2010. GBP .67 to GBP .68 and yet this was the time of the largest increase in crude prices.

Looking at another bellwether currency, the change in the Yen/Dollar rate between Dec 2008 and Jun 2010 only experienced a change of less than 3%, .93JPY to .91JPY.

Chinese Yuan? CY6.88 to CY6.83, again little change.

I just don't see the "falling dollar" as showing any effect on the price of crude. If we look back historically, the last time the dollar suffered a dramatic devaluation was in the mid 80's, specifically between 1985 and 1988. During that time the price of oil DROPPED from $26.92 to $14.87 for the same time period.

Foxbat what's your take on this? Visa/MC say US demand is down .9% over the past 2 weeks.

That's interesting Foxbat. I do know that I watch Bloomberg Energy News daily. Many, many times when the price of crude rises the traders blame it on the falling US $$. You can read for yourself there.

JG, I agree it's not strictly supply/demand when it comes to oil. Speculation, political pressures, currency valuation, supply, demand, perceived/real threats to oil production/refineries, new discoveries etc., all play a part.

I didn't know the answers before I went looking for them on the dollar's valuation/crude prices. Had there been a clear correlation, I would have agreed it could be a major effect, but the recent and historical trends just didn't match up.

Can the value of the dollar be a contributing factor?, Sure, but I don't see it as a major factor, at least until OPEC get's it's way and get's away from the dollar, then we will see price fluctuations in direct relation to the dollar increase. Right now I think it effects speculation more than actual pricing.

Look at July 2008 to Dec 2008, crude went from $135 bbl to $37 bbl in 5 months. It fell to almost a 1/4 of it's previous price in less than half a year. The dollar did increase in value during that time frame, but only a small fraction in comparison to the drop in crude price. Now what did take place during that time frame was a serious drop in demand.

Woooooooooohoooooooooooooo!

Whoever adds more product WILL lower the price given demand and all else remaining the same. It doesn't matter if its the US or Russia, added supply lowers the price.

However that is NOT the same for the price of gasoline. You have to separate the two. Oil is a world priced commodity. Gasoline is tied to the wholesale price of that product AND the cost of crude oil. For example, the price of unleaded on Monday settled at just under $3 per gallon.

So, you can't compare gasoline and crude in the same way.

Man, I'm glad we had more drilling.

I don't mind paying 2.42 for a gallon of gas at all

I do mind being layed off due to the price of crude and cheap unskilled labor in Romania


fugging replaced by some gawtdamm Romanian /romulan

fugging had to deal with 5 of em every 2 weeks
"training them to take our jobs"

took me bout 6-7 months to get proficient

according to our company
these clowns are ready after 2-4 weeks


ya right
fuggers don't even know how to work a tag line
or look for clear escape routes from loads
or remember simple rigging methods

teach em repetively the same things and they still don't get nothing and they just stand around like statues at every given chance

I really think without adult /American supervision some of these guys are gonna get killed and killed fast and rather gruesomely
sad to say it
but it will probably happen real soon




am I bitter

fugging right


so glad all the cooperate vp,s and office fuggers in Houston can keep their jobs and bonuses





hire a Romanian off a cruise ship with a off shore survival suit certificate put em on a deep water rig and presto you have a fugger working for 1/6 th of what you make and absouloutely no experience after his 2-4 week "training"






900 of us on off shore rigs got the axe world wide

half an hour before our helicopter briefing on the morning of 4 dec at the end of our 28 day rotation
4 of us americans got called in the office on the rig and told we no longer had jobs.........

pretty fugged up for sure

work your ass off for 28 days
compensating for having 5 Romanian spectators/workers around you "training to do yourjob" and you are working 3-4 times harder than you normally do
cause they just don't get it and a fast paced enviorment where things need to get done safe and quickly or else people get hurt and basically doing it all yourself

then a half hour before you leave at the end of your hitch you get told you don't have a job anymore
1 guy had 14 yrs
the other 2 had 7 and 9
I had a little under 2


3 other americans got the axe on their crew change on thanksgiving day

everyone is leary of their crew change day coming up now for sure



transocean can kiss my fuzzy white ass



im looking for a company that is smaller and hasn't overbitten its rig to contract ratio


their are better companys out for sure in the off shore industry.

Bitter [bleep]....

Yeah, that Sarah was totally wrong.