And let's ballpark a demand increase of about 200% when the stamp/bullschit thing hypothetically disappears.
How many years before supply meets demand? Five? Ten? During that time prices will spike like crazy. Think 22LR shortage +p. You think after a decade of seeing people happily spend $500 or $600 on a $300 product that manufacturers are gonna drop it down to $50? And if they do, how many years before that happens?
And make no mistake, the tax ain't what keeps people from buying a can. It's the process.
Your numbers are a bit extreme. I'd say with the big companies jumping in and start ups and imports, 2-3 years before the ratio flips. You can bet the big companies in the U.S. already have plans of the board. Europe has a dozen or so companies. Taurus in Brazil can be expected to jump in. All these companies already have marketing chains and import chains established.
Plus the fact that these are rather simple. The over barrel is a bit more complicated but not really complicated. I bet if you had 5 suitable CNC machines you could crank the out by the hundreds.
