That's the rub, Paul. Forecast dangerous weather and people think you're loony when it doesn't happen. But forecast mild and then somebody gets hurt or worse, and then they howl that you didn't warn them. It's probably better to cry wolf than shrug and let people get killed.
I once wrote one of our local weathermen, who has since moved on to something else, about the fact that there are weather watches and warnings issued pretty much from the end of March to the start of November. He said that a number of years ago, during the Clinton administration if I remember correctly, a tornado came out of nowhere in Alabama. The National Weather Circus was told that that would never happen again, hence the constant running in circles yelling that the sky is falling.
Well, I know that when a watch is issued it just means that conditions are such that a storm, or potentially serious conditions could occur. Technically warnings are issued when the forecaster is pretty well convinced the bad is about to to happen.
One example. I was living in Nevada at the time and there was 6" of snow on the ground, completely overcast skies and them was a balmy 32 degrees when I went to work on the midnight shift. A t 1 AM when I went to take the weather observation the temp was 18 degrees and outside the sky was totally clear. Nor a cloud in sight and a full moon. I finished the observation and issued a hard freeze warning. The final low temp was 36 degrees below zero. We never got above 10 below zero for the next five days. What happened was the clouds moved out. With no clouds and their green house effect the temperature just radiated on out into space.
I can easily come out with a good half dozen more instances like the above but maybe you'll get the picture.
Paul B.
