The Lincoln Project and Republican Voters Against Trump (RVAT), the other major Never Trump organization, shared with me preliminary data to show that their work actually played a critical role in Biden’s victory. Their numbers are in line with publicly available exit polls showing that nationally 7 percent of 2016 Trump voters and 8 percent of Republican or Republican-leaning voters backed Biden. The share of independent and moderate voters supporting the Democratic nominee also increased from 42 percent of independents and 52 percent of moderates in 2016 to 54 percent of independents and 64 percent of moderates in 2020. Currently, Biden is leading in the popular vote by 3.4 percentage points.
