Manchin and Sinema both want to keep the filibuster. Unless a Republican defects, that means the vote would be 51-49.
Treaties require 2/3 of the Senate to be ratified. That’s in the Constitution. Based on a quick peek online, the SCOTUS has stated more than once that treaties can not do things forbidden in the Constitution.
Joe, if he wants to run again, isn’t likely to do anything else to offend voters in WV. If not, then who knows?
Maybe, but Manchin also stated many times that he would NOT vote for the Big Green Build Back Better Bill, then he did.
If he can make a deal and sell his vote, he will, AGAIN.