All of our theories and speculation are fun, but I would bet on much more simple and common mechanical failure.
There is one thing that I would bet will be looked at by the investigating agencies...did the Dali take on fuel while in Baltimore? Of course we have no way of knowing, but there are many grades of marine diesel (Not like your diesel, it's a blend of diesel #2 and heavy fuel oil))...and moneywise of course, the owners buy the lowest grades and prices. It's up to the ships engineers to make the fuel work, by filtering, settling and or centrifuging. It's nasty stuff, often containing the dregs of the refinery or at least sediments from the bottoms of dirty storage tanks.
Fuel contamination for a dollar Alex.
You have a very good point, flintlocke. Naturally, they will get a tankful there in Baltimore. Five minutes after the fill-up, the boat conks out. Quite the coincidence.
Pure speculation on my part, it may be even simpler than I suggested.
Dirty fuel is the norm. It is customary to draw fuel from the ship's storage tanks, double bottoms, to what is called a 'day tank'...nothing more than a small tank quantity (maybe 40,000 gal) sufficient to operate for 36 hours, the day tank fuel is then drained of water, sediment and may be centrifuged, but always strained and filtered before it goes to the engines. That's normal...it's what they do.
But, because of the solitary nature of seagoing life, crew is desperate to get off the ship for a few hours, and a good skipper and chief engineer make sure that happens whenever possible. In the confusion of juggling schedules, the ever present possibility that some crew will return to the ship unfit for duty (Exxon Valdez)....sometimes important schidt doesn't get done, or done by someone impaired. It happens.
This is where I venture into fantasy...it's entirely possible the day tank was pumped full, but the fuel was not cleaned, and that was not noted in the engine room log...or was noted and missed by the engineer who had the duty when Dali departed. Big gulps of water or sediment overwhelmed the first filter bank, the engines (generator or main or both) died, the filter system was frantically shifted to the second redundancy bank, which promptly plugged and the second failure was the kill shot. This literally can happen in minutes. It has happened to me as chief engineer on a tug, when a split weld opened in the hull in a double bottom tank and all I could get was seawater into the day tank. Fortunately we had a cool head for a skipper, and he prepared for worst scenario immediately...no damage to vessels, crew other than embarrassment.
And finally, my original assessment at the first hours, complete failure of the electrical system...whether at the main bus or switchgear. Rare but it happens.
This is being reported now. Pretty good speculation on your part it seems.
“Dirty fuel” is one of several possible factors that may have caused the cargo ship Dali to lose power in the moments before it smashed into the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore on Tuesday, according to shipping industry experts.
The investigation by federal, state and local authorities into what went wrong on the Dali is just beginning. But the deadly events on the Patapsco River in the dark of night have shined a light on the travails of the global shipping industry, including a long-standing problem with dirty fuel.
According to a 2018 report for the Atlantic Council think tank, a “witches brew” of industrial products ends up in marine fuel, resulting in hundreds of engine failures in recent years that have left ships powerless and drifting across the high seas.
The Dali went dark as it lost electrical power just before the bridge disaster, and the pilot lost the ability to control the ship as it veered toward the support structure of the bridge. That power loss could have been caused by dirty fuel clogging filters that lead to the ship’s main generator, said Gerald Scoggins, a veteran chief engineer in the oil and gas industry and the CEO of the Houston company Deepwater Producers.
He noted that ships use different fuels for different portions of their cruise. While inside a port, as the Dali was before the collision, ships typically run on a relatively light diesel fuel. That also could have been contaminated. Common contaminants include water, dirt and algae, Scoggins said.
Ian Ralby, the CEO of I.R. Consilium, a maritime and resource security consultancy, said heavy marine fuel loaded onto ships in port is mixed with what is called cutter stock, and is prone to being loaded with contaminants and is not closely regulated. Such dirty fuel could have “gummed up all of the fuel lines on the ship.”
Ralby, who co-authored the 2018 Atlantic Council report, said that waste products from refineries and other industrial operations have made their way illegally into shipping fuel, known as bunker fuel.
“The supply chain for bunker fuel is long, and relatively opaque,” the report states. “As a result, bunker fuel has become a final destination for the leftovers of the refining process.”
Merchant ships, the report states, then effectively function as incinerators for the refining industry. Inspectors have found bunker fuel contaminated with “used motor oil and by-products from the manufacture of plastics, rubber, cosmetics, fertilizers, and even paper goods.”
In the case of the Dali, Ralby said the possibility of a cyberattack should not be dismissed. It’s also possible that the ship had a purely mechanical failure in one of its critical systems.
The dirty fuel conjecture comes from observers with limited direct information about the ship, its fueling history and other potential mechanical problems that could have contributed to the loss of power and steering control.
Whatever the cause, the shipping industry has been roiled by the Baltimore disaster and other troubling developments, including attacks on Red Sea cargo ships by Houthi militants and low water in the Panama Canal. With those major shipping routes imperiled, the entire global supply chain has been rerouted, Ralby said — and that could exacerbate the dirty fuel problem.
“We may be in a situation where ships are going to be taking on fuel in places where they can’t guarantee the quality or caliber of fuel,” he said.
