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Campfire Outfitter
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OP
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Joined: Dec 2005
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Is there a mental blockage at 18K? It seems that every time we hit above it, the forces of Thor somehow smack it back down. I am thinking heavy at 16.5, then at 17.8, stop........ Heavy at 16.5, then at 17.8, stop. Ride out the little waves at 18 and then wait for the next 16.5. It seems to be eerily easy to forecast lately.
Nothing too specific, just generalities. Where do you think we will be at in 12 months and why? Forecasts are all over the place.
"...aspire to live quietly, and to mind your own affairs, and to work with your hands, as we instructed you, so that you may walk properly before outsiders and be dependent on no one." - Paul to the church in Thessalonica.
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Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
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Generally speaking, past performance has shown that the stock market historically goes up 2/3 of the time. This historical fact favors the long term investor who patiently waits for the pullbacks to enter the market and takes judicious profits to rebalance. My biggest mistake was squandering all those years and not investing. I'm a Johnny Come Lately who is trying my best to catch up.
"All that the South has ever desired was that the Union, as established by our forefathers, should be preserved, and that the government, as originally organized, should be administered in purity and truth." – Robert E. Lee
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Campfire Regular
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Considering the issues that have come up over the last year, I don't think it's a mental blockage....I think we're fortunate to have kept it close.
The gas glut has stagnated a lot of industry. Greece still isn't solvent (and Porto Rico sets a dangerous precedent) and the European Union continues to have issues. Hard to stay confident with all that.
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Campfire Oracle
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Campfire Oracle
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18 is a pyshcological barrier of sorts, but it is also what the technicians call 'resistance'...Once broken through decisively ( it broke once last year to 18.3...) it often becomes what they call 'support'...much like the 16.5 you noticed is....
I don't have any more clue where it'll be in 12 months than I know how to build a spaceship...
"...the left considers you vermin, and they'll kill you given the chance..." Bristoe
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Campfire Outfitter
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Look at the 10 year DOW chart if you want to see where it is heading. Looks like a triple top reversal formation building. [img] http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.W...;height=444&width=579&mocktick=1[/img]
"There's more to optics than meets the eye."--anon
"...most of us would be better off losing half a pound around the waist than half a pound on our rifle."--dhg
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Campfire Outfitter
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Sell in May…..then go away.
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Campfire Outfitter
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I suppose there is some "mental" block over the 18,000 number as there was at 10,000, 15,000....... The market will go way beyond 18,000 and may drop well below it again. But being in the market, being diversified and disciplined has treated me very well over a 30 year period. And it should have done the same for others who had a diversified and balanced portfolio over a long period of time. I wouldn't worry about it.
NRA Patron
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Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
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As more and more positions are held at highs.....
FJB & FJT
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*Master of random precision*
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The P/E ratios currently don't support a DOW much above 18K. If you have a pick up in corporate earnings or sentiment they will be increasing in the future, the market indexes will rise. With the economy stuck in low gear, you aren't going to see much movement across the broad market.
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Campfire Tracker
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The economy is not booming now. Not really a complete bust, either. We're in that lull phase where you're see a a move down of 500-1000, the traders buy/sell, then it goes back up to 18k, and they take their profits.
Not enough bad news to drive it way down. Certainly not enough good news to get it up. If a Republican is elected in Nov, I fully expect the Fed to start jacking up rates (out of spite), so that they can blame the subsequent 3-5k drop on the GOP.....
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Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
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This is a good time to enter the markets. Market goes up 2/3 of the "time" (which is your friend.) I remember in my younger years that I didn't have any money to invest because I was spending it all on stuff (on credit.) As i look back, I hamstrung my ability to create wealth for my family by failing to curb my appetite for stuff on credit. A disastrous combination. I would say to myself, ". . . if I put this money in an investment I can never touch it til I retire. I can't see that far into the future." I can certainly see the (heavenly) light at the end of the tunnel now! Stocks Follow Overseas Markets Lower; Pfizer Early Dow LeaderKEN SHREVE 10:00 AM ET - IBD Pfizer outperformed in the Dow early Tuesday on strong earnings. (Frances M. Roberts/Newscom)The stock market opened sharply lower Tuesday, hurt by more weak manufacturing data out of China along with a sell-off in European stock markets. The S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones industrial average all fell around 1%. Declining stocks outnumbered advancers on the NYSE by about 4 to 1. The ratio was 3 to 1 on the Nasdaq. Gold added to recent gains as the dollar weakened again. It edged higher to just under $1,300 an ounce. Money flowed into bonds as the 10-year Treasury yield crashed 8 basis points to 1.79%. In the stock market today, early gainers in the Dow included Pfizer (PFE). The drugmaker jumped 2% to 33.61 on earnings. It’s been working its way higher in a long consolidation, finding a new home above 32 and its 200-day moving average. Who are the leaders in Pfizer’s Medical-Ethical Drugs group? Consult IBD Stock Checkup to find out. Meanwhile, after eight straight declines, Apple (AAPL) rallied 0.8% in the early going. Inside the IBD 50, a couple of defensive stocks continued to trade tightly and hold near highs. Prestige Brands (PBH) added a penny to 57.61. Constellation Brands (STZ) eased 0.2% to 157.45. A couple of growth names are set to report earnings after the close today: AmSurg (AMSG) and Paycom (PAYC).
"All that the South has ever desired was that the Union, as established by our forefathers, should be preserved, and that the government, as originally organized, should be administered in purity and truth." – Robert E. Lee
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Campfire Outfitter
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The market is priced pretty fairly right now, with P/E's in the 16.5 range, which is about the 50 year average.
Of course, interest rates are historically low, which you would expect to push P/E's higher. That 16.5 p/e is pretty much equivalent to a 6% interest rate (so your investment return is 6% plus whatever the value of the growth of the stock is).
In the current low interest climate, a p/e of 20 (5%) is probably not unjustified. Of course, since the market posts a forward looking valuation, expected future interest rate increases are already figured in the price.
With earnings where they are, I don't see the markets go up or down much, unless there's some external shock.
Sic Semper Tyrannis
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I get a real kick out of all of these brainiacs who have these blogs, newsletters, etc about investing. If it were that easy we'd all be gozillionaires, and so would they. Nowadays the markets are for the big money boys, not the little guy, IMHO.
It is irrelevant what you think. What matters is the TRUTH.
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Sell in May…..then go away.
Good advice. Check back with me in November. If I knew the future I'd quit going to work...
Quando omni flunkus moritati
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Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
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I get a real kick out of all of these brainiacs who have these blogs, newsletters, etc about investing. If it were that easy we'd all be gozillionaires, and so would they. Nowadays the markets are for the big money boys, not the little guy, IMHO. When I first started investing I wasted hundreds if not thousands of dollars on the investment newsletter subscriptions. All you need is a free signup to "Seeking Alpha" and a few books.
"All that the South has ever desired was that the Union, as established by our forefathers, should be preserved, and that the government, as originally organized, should be administered in purity and truth." – Robert E. Lee
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Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
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This is a good time to enter the markets.... Right, get in at the very top!
"There's more to optics than meets the eye."--anon
"...most of us would be better off losing half a pound around the waist than half a pound on our rifle."--dhg
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Joined: Jan 2015
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Campfire Regular
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Campfire Regular
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Is there a mental blockage at 18K? It seems that every time we hit above it, the forces of Thor somehow smack it back down. I am thinking heavy at 16.5, then at 17.8, stop........ Heavy at 16.5, then at 17.8, stop. Ride out the little waves at 18 and then wait for the next 16.5. It seems to be eerily easy to forecast lately.
Nothing too specific, just generalities. Where do you think we will be at in 12 months and why? Forecasts are all over the place. Very few people can time the market successfully. Whatever level you decide to get in at, stay in and you'll likely make money over the long run.
The biggest problem our country has is not systemic racism, it's systemic stupidity.
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Campfire Tracker
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the Market is going to belch, has to. then everything will settle down and quality, under priced stocks will be available at a fair price. but if you just buy in every month through your 401k it wont matter much what you do because you'll be cost averaging. just don't get greedy and try to hit the lottery and you should be fine. i have set aside some cash reserves this last year though just to go shopping at some point should a opportunity arise.
Help keep our sport going. take a kid outdoors!
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Campfire Tracker
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Campfire Tracker
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Our stock market is artificially inflated by the Federal Reserve (and other big banks who are playing the stock market instead of loaning money) and by big corporations buying back their own stock (there are very few individuals investing in our stock market). It is also inflated by our government with their "War on Drugs" which makes dealing illegal drugs an incredibly profitable industry. Most of the drug cartel's huge drug profits end up in our or somebody else's stock market. It can't go on like this forever. My goal is to get out of the stock market as soon as possible.
Last edited by victoro; 05/03/16.
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