Home Forums Hunting & Shooting Hunter's Campfire Dow Jones: Buying opportunity?

... more specific to the thread topic, back in the fall I was under the impression that the market was toppish, and made a few moves accordingly.

I kept money in 2 funds that were category specific and very successful (that I have owned since Bush 1 was in office).

The rest, including most of my index funds, were sold and moved to money market, figuring that the late Obama era/ early POTUS 45 era would bring us a BIG correction. I thought interest rates would continue to climb up, and the real inflation that has been here would couple with reportable inflation.

In short, I was wrong, and missed a decent runnup since approx early october on those index funds I sold.

Durint this time I kept my 'play' money in things that are, truth be told, more gamble than investing. (pot stocks, lithium stocks, a depressed gold stock.. yada yada). these have done OK, but that probably doesnt compensate for the $ I have sitting in cash waiting for the correction that didnt come.

Yet.

I agree with what you said in your entire post, but the part I bolded is absolute truth. It really isn't that complicated for you as the investor if you have your shares held with most any brokerage firms. The 1099 DIVs produced by the brokerage firms since the inception of the law separate out the qualified dividend amounts for you on the filing.

Here is the catch. Until last year, the brokerage firms had to continually send out corrected 1099s because the companies that paid the dividends would make errors in their reporting to the firms. Most of the brokerage firms would delay sending out their 1099s until March 15th to help mitigate the clients refiling their taxes. The Treasury department allowed them to wait on sending them.

I wouldn't sweat it if I were you in figuring out what is what because it should be separated out on your 1099.

With Trump they will drop...

that will play right into my dollar cost averaging strategy!

Sycamore

Found this little nugget perusing a thread on ex div dates


"The primary requirements for qualified dividends are they be issued by qualified U.S. or foreign corporations and meet a holding period requirement. For a dividend payment to be considered qualified, you must have owned the underlying stock for a minimum of 60 days within the 121-day period beginning 60 days before the ex-dividend date."

It actually makes quite a bit of sense, the intent is too not reward speculators who buy the stock for dividend rights and promptly dump it after the ex dividend date.

It seems that qualified div. only need the stock held for about 2 months if bought 60 days before the ex div. date. That is not very long. It may be 61 days , but if you miss the 60 day div date requirement you may have to wait 60 days plus 120 days. That would only be 5 months or so. , , , I think. I will find out soon through Fidelity when the 1099's come out.

What's the old wife's tale ? "Whatever the market does in the 1st week of January, so goes the year."

SPY end of 1st week of January:

2013 - 145
2014 - 182
2015 - 200
2016 - 191
2017 - 227

What constitutes a “qualified” dividend? Most dividends paid by domestic companies are qualified. And many dividends paid by foreign companies also qualify for the preferred tax rate. However, distributions paid by real estate investment trusts, master limited partnerships, and other similar “pass-through” entities may not qualify for favored tax status. Also, dividends that are paid on shares that are not held at least 61 days in the 121-day period surrounding the ex-dividend date are not “qualified” dividends.

CLF...

Keep in mind that the dividends are not actually paid on the ex-dividend date...the person who holds the stock on that date will have the right to receive the dividends when they are paid, whether or not they still hold the stock, which could be as much as a year later. Also, the stock price is adjusted (reduced) to account for the dividend. Hence, dividends are not free money, as some seem to think.

Anyone have any closed end funds? Their div. seem very good.

Picking over the XLI holdings could be a place to start.

Actually you have to have held the stock at the close, the day before the ex-div day, to receive the dividend.

Hookem . . . I have several CEFs. They are all doing quite well. I don't pick them myself, though. I use my advisor, who is the butt of a few jokes on here from investing ignorant people.


BTW, yesterday was another one of my biggest portfolio gains ever . . . I'm almost getting tired of winning so much!



I said "almost."

Wanted to share a market update, with those who are interested, written by my financial adviser Rida Morwa on Seeking Alpha LINK I have made alot of money following his advice over the past year. I'm just sharing the wealth. Like they say, "when the student is ready, the master will come." If Rida worked for a big brokerage house he would be advising multi-millionaires and institutional investors, charging high fees.



HDO: Market Update - Feb 9, 2017

Feb. 9, 2017 8:26 AM ET•

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.


Dear HDO Members,

The markets continue to look resilient, despite difficulties for the bulls to drive the S&P 500 above the 2300 level. The reason for this is that the markets are technically overstretched, especially the Nasdaq index which is resulting in difficulties for the markets to advance.

But I see many reasons why the markets will continue to hold amazingly well. We should remember that when you get near territory never seen before, like the Dow index at the 20,000 level or S&P index at the 2300, these are psychological resistance levels and could be seen as a potential top where a battle between the bulls and the bears takes place - with sell programs in place that must be topped by buy programs and orders. Despite this, the bulls have been stepping back in at each pullback which looks bullish.

During the past week, the VIX volatility index (or "fear index") is showing that fear among investors remains much closer to all-time lows. So in spite of everything that has occurred since the November election traders remain confident the markets can go higher.

The trading range of the S&P index remains extremely tight:

To the upside: The 2300 level is the first level of resistance for the S&P 500 index.

To the downside: There is plenty of support all the way down to the 2275 level.

The equity markets are in effect in a consolidation mode. Once the bulls can finally clear that 2300 level that could garner some new excitement, the markets are likely to continue to grind their way up. The medium term target for the S&P 500 is the 2350 level.

HDO members should note that we can see price volatility in the process, and should not be worried about it.

Outlook for the Next 3 Months

While I am bullish on equities in 2017, the way up is by no means going to be a straight line. My outlook over the next 3 months is as follows:

In the near-term, the bulls are likely to continue to slowly drive the markets higher. Their next target for the S&P 500 is the 2350 level.

The drive higher will be followed by a consolidation period and we are likely to see a pullback over the next two months which will serve to rebuild the market's internal energy and extend the rally.

Important note to our Members: Do not bet on any large pullback! The maximum pullback in my opinion will take down the S&P 500 index down to the 2200 level, which is about 4% lower from here, and this is a pessimistic scenario. If such a pullback happens, it will be a temporary pullback and the recovery should be swift.

I am continuously monitoring the markets, and if there is a change in the economic outlook, I will inform members to take appropriate action accordingly.

===

Best course of action for HDO Members

For those fully invested, I advise to remain so.

For those who wish to put new money at work, below is the best strategy to follow.

Best Strategy for putting new money at work

Buy 50% of your intended target position in the securities tagged as "Top Buy" at the current market prices, and take into account the "Buy Under" prices. The 19 "Must Own" stocks and securities for the year 2017 is a good place to start, in addition to all other securities in our "Core Portfolio" and "Optional List" that are tagged as "Top Buys."

Wait until mid April to fill the remaining 50%, to take advantage of a general pullback, if we see one.

This way, members can average down their price in case we see a pullback.

Why not wait for a pullback to start buying?

First, there is no guarantee that we will see any significant market pullback. Trying to time the markets is a bad investment strategy and often results in "missed opportunities."

Second, as the markets go higher, the "moving averages" of the stock markets also move higher; so when a pullback happens from a higher level, it will be less severe for those who are already invested.
So it is best to build a 50% position at the current levels.

Bottom Line

The current bull market has still a long way to go. It is not too late to join the current market rally. Sitting on the sidelines because prices are high and contemplate equities move higher, or wait for the next recession, could be very costly. The main point to note here is that there will be ups and downs during 2017, but one should keep in mind that the year is likely to be excellent for equities. Being patient, having a long-term view, and not worry about daily stock fluctuations are key. In the meantime, we keep collecting hefty dividends.

Just a look back since the beginning of 2017

These threads are the most comical here on the 'fire. I am sure if I wasn't such a GAF person I could search for the must sellers at 15K or 10k...

Dollar cost averaging. As long as you have time, keep plugging a little at a time. When I started in the market we were wondering if it would ever pass 2,400.......