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Joined: Oct 2016
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Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
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762 draws for 125 tags means 6.09 times more hunters than tags.
So roughly 1/6 of the total will see a tag.
762 devided by 7 for 108.8:1
108.8/125=87 % chance of 1 tag
IF I did the math right, you have @87% chance of hitting ONE of 125 tags. (But it is only a chance)
And that is with 7 tickets, not 6. (Son, father, and 5 inlaws)
An unemployed Jester, is nobody's Fool.
the only real difference between a good tracker and a bad tracker, is observation. all the same data is present for both. The rest, is understanding what you're seeing.
~Molɔ̀ːn Labé Skýla~
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Joined: Jan 2007
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Campfire Tracker
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OP
Campfire Tracker
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Posts: 3,098 Likes: 1 |
I am no more sure of the likelihood Rowdy will draw than when I started this thread....but I do feel marginally better watching all of you argue contradictory numbers with one another because it proves MOST of you are just as dumb as me.
ONE of you is probably correct....but that also means the rest of you are at least as ignorant as I am.
p.s. My money/intuition is on K1500 at this point fwtw.
If you're not burning through batteries in your headlamp,...you're doing it wrong.
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Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 4,704
Campfire Tracker
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Campfire Tracker
Joined: Jan 2006
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Dave, Good question because my head started to hurt a little...  And yeah, 1500 makes a good case. Where is mathman when you need him? Anyway, good luck to you and Rowdy in the draw and hopefully Christmas comes in late June when the results come out. All I know is he has a 16% chance six times:) Better than just one shot anyway.
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Joined: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,845
Campfire Regular
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Campfire Regular
Joined: Feb 2011
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I am no more sure of the likelihood Rowdy will draw than when I started this thread....but I do feel marginally better watching all of you argue contradictory numbers with one another because it proves MOST of you are just as dumb as me.
ONE of you is probably correct....but that also means the rest of you are at least as ignorant as I am.
p.s. My money/intuition is on K1500 at this point fwtw. but I think there is a 68.9% chance that all of them are wrong. lol. Of course, you have to realize that 78% of statistics are actually made up on the spot.
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Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 26,337
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 26,337 |
of course, very valid point. we all know there are lies, damn lies, and then there's statistics.
but, who was it that won the draw, and who didn't? does anyone know for sure?
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Joined: Jan 2010
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Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Jan 2010
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If 125 tags are available for 762 people, each person has a chance of 125/762 or .1640 on the first draw, which can be expressed as 16.4%. Remember that if 125 tags were split between 125 people then each would have a chance of 125/125 = 1 which is 100% chance of winning. Or look at it the other way, 762 people with 125 tags, 762/125 = 6.096, or about 6 people vying for each tag. 100% success divided by 6.096 = 16.40 or again 16.4%. I suppose there is some algorithm that shows your odds decreasing with each unsuccessful (for you) draw. When the first ticket is drawn, then 124 people are vying for 761 tags, or 124/761 = .1629, then 123/760 = .1618, etc. until there is one tag left for 638 people or 1/638 = .0015. Not sure how 6 applicants vying for one of 762 tags would be calculated, I left college to join the Army before we got to that part of the class.  Close, but the odds don't change. It's 16.4%. P
Obey lawful commands. Video interactions. Hold bad cops accountable. Problem solved.
~Molɔ̀ːn Labé Skýla~
Member #547
Join date 3/09/2001
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Joined: Nov 2008
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Campfire Regular
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never mind........
Last edited by MickeyD; 05/24/17.
~Molɔ̀ːn Labé Skýla~
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Joined: Apr 2011
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Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Apr 2011
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I agree with the 66% probability of "one of the 6" drawing a tag. Backed into it like this:
Likelihood that anyone individual will not be drawn = 83.6%. 6 total individuals = 83.6%^6 = 34% probability that NONE of the 6 individuals will be drawn after 6 attempts = 66% probability that at least one person out of the 6 WILL draw a tag.
Based on the the old WWII B17 bomber air crew survival problem: During WWII, on average 95% of all B17 bombers that went out on a given mission returned safely to their airfield. After crews flew 25 missions they were eligible to return home. What was the probability that any given B17 crew would return safely from all 25 missions and be eligible to return home ? 0.95^25 = ~28% probability. So, even tho they had a 95% probability of returning from any given mission, the probability of them doing it 25 times in row was a little over 1 in 4...
Keep in mind that this is probabilistically speaking. Meaning a total random process with no bias toward drawing: (a) Game Commission members or their families/friends, (b) political figures or their families/friends/donors, or (c) well to-do folks who have some how earned favor$$$ from (a) or (b).
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Joined: Nov 2003
Posts: 28,867
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Nov 2003
Posts: 28,867 |
Well, the reality of it is, you have a 50/50 chance - either you'll draw or you won't. There are no other possibilities. Just because there are only two outcomes doesn't mean it is a 50/50 shot. You can either win the powerball or not, but it sure isn't a 50/50 shot despite the fact there are only two outcomes. You are breaking my heart. I was ready to go spend $2 thus guaranteeing I would be 100% winner.
"Only Christ is the fullness of God's revelation."
Everyday Hunter
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Campfire Kahuna
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Campfire Kahuna
Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 50,643 Likes: 1 |
I am no more sure of the likelihood Rowdy will draw than when I started this thread....but I do feel marginally better watching all of you argue contradictory numbers with one another because it proves MOST of you are just as dumb as me.
ONE of you is probably correct....but that also means the rest of you are at least as ignorant as I am.
p.s. My money/intuition is on K1500 at this point fwtw. K1500 is definitely the closest to correct, but you threw a herring in the pot that was overlooked when the equations were being set up. The number of those applying as a party has a lot to do with the final odds of any one person drawing. Especially if the numbers applying as a party are counted as one, yet remove two tags each draw (which I would assume they are not, but do not know). For example, if everyone except your family applied as a party, as you and your son did, the actual starting number of "applicants" would be roughly half the 76? but each would remove two "applicants" from the pool each time with a single draw. Fewer draws with two winners each time would not favor a single "applicant." Without including the correct number of party applicants it is impossible to pull numbers out to the third decimal point. Had you not applied as a party you would have raised your son's odds of getting at least one tag. That would of course mean you like Fords and everyone knows what that says about you... AK has some similar (and some wildly different) rules to en/discourage kids to go hunting.
Mark Begich, Joaquin Jackson, and Heller resistance... Three huge reasons to worry about the NRA.
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Joined: Mar 2007
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Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Mar 2007
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What if you draw several?
Not buy the tags so they are available in the second chance drawing or?
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Campfire Tracker
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Campfire Tracker
Joined: Nov 2008
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Sitka is correct, there is no way to determine exact probability with party draws unless you know how many party applicants there are. I missed the one draw/two tags part in the OP. Regardless, it will be very close to 66% unless there are a large number of party applicants.
Last edited by K1500; 05/23/17.
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Campfire Tracker
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OP
Campfire Tracker
Joined: Jan 2007
Posts: 3,098 Likes: 1 |
What if you draw several?
Not buy the tags so they are available in the second chance drawing or? Very likely returned (unclaimed) for 2nd chance drawing if multiple tags drawn. My wife MIGHT go hunt if he or one of the grandparents draw, but unlikely any of grandparents would go.
If you're not burning through batteries in your headlamp,...you're doing it wrong.
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Joined: Dec 2003
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Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Dec 2003
Posts: 17,231 Likes: 2 |
Odds are, you and the 6 others that are applying are going to fall in with the other 637 people that aren't going to draw...plan accordingly. Maybe try "hooking" a kid by taking them every year versus only hunting a top end tag (NOT saying you aren't doing that very thing). IME, most kids couldn't give a chit less if they're shooting a cow, spike, or 6 point for their first few elk. Hell, lets be honest, many adults are the same way. As long as unrealistic expectations and undue pressure is put on a kid to kill a whopper, I have no problem with the tag transfer. However, these glory tags and tag transfer schemes have a lot more to do with stroking the ego of the parents and less about "hooking" kids. Took my 12 year old nephew on a 100% draw odds cow hunt that receives very little hunting pressure on a tag he put in for. A quality hunt is more about the experience than the size of the rack, in particular when trying to "hook" kids in the sport. Many times, chasing inches of horn and antler turns into a cluster-shag, for all kinds of reasons, and could have the exact opposite effect on kids. My nephew was pretty darn happy with how his elk hunt went, very controlled situation, lots of elk, decent weather...perfect shot with his 7-08 at 70 yards. Reasonable pack out, plenty of time to show him how to quarter an elk for packing, just a great experience. He's going to be a life-long elk hunter...no doubt in my mind. ![[Linked Image]](http://photos.imageevent.com/buzzandpat/elkhunting/websize/20161014_1808552.jpg) Good luck in the draw... +1 good job, Uncle!
...Actually Sycamore, you are sort of right....
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Campfire Member
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From https://math.stackexchange.com/questions/91998/probability-of-winning-a-prize-in-a-raffleAssuming that this year there will be 762 applicants as well, an approximation without using binomial coefficients is: 1 - ((756/762)^125) The odds of a single draw not producing a ticket for your group are 756 in 762. Do that 125 times. According to my math, it's about 63%. Otherwise, you need to calculate 1-((756/762) * (755/761) *(754/760) ..... (632/638) *(631/637))
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Joined: Nov 2008
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Campfire Tracker
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Campfire Tracker
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 4,210 Likes: 5 |
From https://math.stackexchange.com/questions/91998/probability-of-winning-a-prize-in-a-raffleAssuming that this year there will be 762 applicants as well, an approximation without using binomial coefficients is: 1 - ((756/762)^125) The odds of a single draw not producing a ticket for your group are 756 in 762. Do that 125 times. According to my math, it's about 63%. Otherwise, you need to calculate 1-((756/762) * (755/761) *(754/760) ..... (632/638) *(631/637)) This is what I did (the non approximate version). You can do it on a hand calculator as all but 6 of the terms in the numerator and denominator cancel.
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Joined: Mar 2013
Posts: 27,091
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Mar 2013
Posts: 27,091 |
Why not got to Utah and buy a auction tag? They are guaranteed if you can afford them.
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Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 69,415 Likes: 9
Campfire Kahuna
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Campfire Kahuna
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 69,415 Likes: 9 |
The Idaho draw results will be out around July 1. If you're successful, you have the permit but you still have to buy your tag. The permit cost you $6.25. You have until Aug 1 to buy your tag or you forfeit the permit. The lost permits go back into a 2d drawing in Aug. Most hunts will have from 0 to maybe a half doz leftover permits for the 2d draw. In this case, if all the extra adults draw more permits than they can give the boy, they can just not buy the $30 tag. Only $6.25 is lost and some other hunter gets another shot at going hunting.
This 2d drawing came about some years ago to combat antis who were entering the drawing to keep hunters from getting permits. They were trying to keep real hunters from hunting. They can still enter the draw and and get a permit they won't use, but now they at least have to buy an expensive tag or they lose the permit. It's a slight win for the hunters.
“In a time of deceit telling the truth is a revolutionary act.”
― George Orwell
It's not over when you lose. It's over when you quit.
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Joined: Jan 2007
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Campfire Tracker
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OP
Campfire Tracker
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Why not got to Utah and buy a auction tag? They are guaranteed if you can afford them. Because I don't live in Utah??...and because it would be stupid to spend thousands of dollars in pursuit of a tag when I can spend less than $100 and have a reasonably good chance (63ish percent apparently) of my son getting a tag in my back yard? If he/we don't draw, we'll just hunt with OTC tags elsewhere in our home state.
If you're not burning through batteries in your headlamp,...you're doing it wrong.
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Joined: Feb 2001
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Campfire Kahuna
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Campfire Kahuna
Joined: Feb 2001
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Why not got to Utah and buy a auction tag? They are guaranteed if you can afford them. Because I don't live in Utah??...and because it would be stupid to spend thousands of dollars in pursuit of a tag when I can spend less than $100 and have a reasonably good chance (63ish percent apparently) of my son getting a tag in my back yard? If he/we don't draw, we'll just hunt with OTC tags elsewhere in our home state. I still think you should buy a Toyota!
Mark Begich, Joaquin Jackson, and Heller resistance... Three huge reasons to worry about the NRA.
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