Home Forums Hunting & Shooting Hunter's Campfire A math/hunting problem for the smart kids....

If 125 tags are available for 762 people, each person has a chance of 125/762 or .1640 on the first draw, which can be expressed as 16.4%. Remember that if 125 tags were split between 125 people then each would have a chance of 125/125 = 1 which is 100% chance of winning.

Or look at it the other way, 762 people with 125 tags, 762/125 = 6.096, or about 6 people vying for each tag. 100% success divided by 6.096 = 16.40 or again 16.4%.

I suppose there is some algorithm that shows your odds decreasing with each unsuccessful (for you) draw. When the first ticket is drawn, then 124 people are vying for 761 tags, or 124/761 = .1629, then 123/760 = .1618, etc. until there is one tag left for 638 people or 1/638 = .0015.

Not sure how 6 applicants vying for one of 762 tags would be calculated, I left college to join the Army before we got to that part of the class.

Odds are, you and the 6 others that are applying are going to fall in with the other 637 people that aren't going to draw...plan accordingly.

Maybe try "hooking" a kid by taking them every year versus only hunting a top end tag (NOT saying you aren't doing that very thing). IME, most kids couldn't give a chit less if they're shooting a cow, spike, or 6 point for their first few elk. Hell, lets be honest, many adults are the same way. As long as unrealistic expectations and undue pressure is put on a kid to kill a whopper, I have no problem with the tag transfer.

However, these glory tags and tag transfer schemes have a lot more to do with stroking the ego of the parents and less about "hooking" kids.

Took my 12 year old nephew on a 100% draw odds cow hunt that receives very little hunting pressure on a tag he put in for. A quality hunt is more about the experience than the size of the rack, in particular when trying to "hook" kids in the sport. Many times, chasing inches of horn and antler turns into a cluster-shag, for all kinds of reasons, and could have the exact opposite effect on kids.

My nephew was pretty darn happy with how his elk hunt went, very controlled situation, lots of elk, decent weather...perfect shot with his 7-08 at 70 yards. Reasonable pack out, plenty of time to show him how to quarter an elk for packing, just a great experience. He's going to be a life-long elk hunter...no doubt in my mind.



Good luck in the draw...

What happens if everyone in your clan gets lucky?

No, it's better than 50/50, it's a 66% chance you draw at least 1 tag.

762 divided by 125 times 6 = 36.576

Well, the reality of it is, you have a 50/50 chance - either you'll draw or you won't. There are no other possibilities.

No, you cannot. This is easily demonstrated by assuming he has 7 names in the hat. Your method above would give him above a 100% chance of drawing, which cannot happen. The correct way to calculate the odds of the OP drawing one or more tags is given above in my first post.

Just because there are only two outcomes doesn't mean it is a 50/50 shot. You can either win the powerball or not, but it sure isn't a 50/50 shot despite the fact there are only two outcomes.