Home Forums Hunting & Shooting Hunter's Campfire Don't look now but stock market is booming

I understand your argument but when the market hit 7000, I lost $125k. You can argue I didn't lose any shares but I did lose half the value of my portfolio. The good thing is, while a lot of people at work was running around like a chicken with their heads cut off and selling left and right or going to the target date funds, I was contributing 26% to my 401K. You can buy a lot of stuff when the price of everything drops in half.

When I started with this company in 2001, I rolled $40k over into their plan. I am now at $497k.It really isn't as hard as people make it out to be. You just have to want to retire comfortable more than want all the stuff you can't afford but finance.

few years ago in a conference room, and sat and listened to a man who represented one of the biggest mutual fund companies in the country. He had another guy with him to monitor what he said. He had some beautiful charts showing what x amount of dollars from 1929 up until a few years ago would have done. I started snickering. He asked why? I responded with what did that do from start date until after WWII, and what if i had needed that money prior to 40 years in the future, say a couple of years after starting this wonderful thing. Dead silence.
I remember reading a mutual fund prospectus one time that showed this wonderful performance over a ten year period. Only "problem" was one year after the original investment, it was down probably 50 to 60% and didn't come back and really rock and roll until the last two years.
So how many people are going to hold a item down that much for that length of time without selling. And there goes it isn't a loss until you sell. Sure, for tax purposes. but if you are down, you are down and youse don't got's as much dinero left. Good markets make everyone an expert, the real experts tend to be the ones that lost their butt and hopefully learned a little.
there is not real secret to the markets, but it is all different given ones age. My time horizon at age 70 isn't the same as age 30.

Nope we started putting more in.

It has payed off well.

Should have stated we lost 80.000 on paper.

Loosing $ 80,000 for a Texan is like dropping some chicken feed I hear. . Now from a normal guy from Wisconsin , that is real money.... Now, if a big drop does come, you will be better off leaving it in. A 50% drop doubles your dividends. Still would hate to see it. I lost 75% in 2000 . Put 7k into a tech fund in March , 2000. It took 10 yrs to get it back. Thankfully , it was only 7K and my house got payed off the day I put it in.

"The S&P500 is at 2516. Should we close above today, we will be heading to the 2525 level and then to the 2575. Before year-end we should be well above the 2600 level; hopefully above the 2700 level. This is one of the strongest bull markets I have ever seen, once in a lifetime!!"

"We realize that Property REITs and Midstream MLPs are not fully participating in the current rally, but the time WILL come. Patience will be very well rewarded!!"

Rida Morwa - 11:57 - 29 SEP 2017

and then we get to worry about the mid-cycle election year dip.......

is it about time for the average, main-stream investor to begin to put his toes in the water in relation to the bit-coin phenomenon? is it real? or is it too speculative for the average member of the rank & file?

Why is it going to continue to go up? This bull market has been on-going for the past 8 years! And it can't continue! I don't know when reality will set in and people will start selling and taking profits off the table, but when a drop does occur, it will happen fast.

see: http://fortune.com/2017/03/09/stock-market-bull-market-longest/

Remember Jim Glassman's book "DOW 36,000"?

This is a 1999 book by syndicated columnist, James K. Glassman and American Enterprise Institute scholar and former Federal Reserve economist, Kevin A. Hassett.[1][2] in which they argued that stocks in 1999 were significantly undervalued and concluded that there would be a fourfold market increase with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rising to 36,000 by 2002 or 2004.[3][4] The book was published in 1999, shortly before the dot-com bubble burst and the 2001 September 11 attacks, and had predicted that stocks would rise quickly to 36,000. Instead the DJIA fell dramatically. (from Wikipedia)

Yep, they ARE right - the S&P will eventually hit 36,000, only not in 2004. I'm still waiting.

"He had some beautiful charts showing what x amount of dollars from 1929 ...."

Keep in mind that many forecasters use 1929 as a benchmark to show how the market has grown (10.9% annualized) since then. BUT, using 1929 as a benchmark is a false start. The market had just plummeted (from all-time highs) and many large cap stocks were now small caps due to the decline. Also, the 10.9% annualized return also assumes that you reinvested all dividends (not spent them). The market goes up and the market goes down. All you an count on is history (that it has historically risen over time) and hope that it continues to do so. There are no guarantees!

We really have not had an 8 yr bull run. In 2007 the dow was 14,000. It tanked because the a hole media tried telling everyone the economy was going to crash and burn and we were going back to 1929. They did this to scare every numb nutted dipssshiit that Bush made the economy crash and we need a guy called Barack Obama . It worked like a charm. The dow tanked cause millions bought the BS. , they sold out in a panic thinking we they need to get the little money they have left . So , ten yrs ago it peaked at 14k. now it is 22K . So , since the peak happened 10 yrs ago the Dow only went up 4.75% per yr. This is not exactly what I would call over valued especially at 1% short interest rates . Mind you , during the Bush yrs the avr. short term interest rates were about 5% over the 8 yr Bush presidency . I dont think it is over valued . Also, November 2014 the Dow was 18,000. Two yrs later the Dow was not even 18,000 the day before Trump won. The Stock Market corrected but not like we are used to . It corrected up like it should have.

The market crashed because it was over-priced. Price/earnings multiples were way overvalued and the market recognized it. The market's health is not dictated by BS or media statements; the market is moved by large sophisticated institutional investors and market drops are the norm.

Technical Analysis

Rida Morwa - 1 Oct 2017

"The S&P 500 index traded in a narrow range all week riding along the 20-day moving average, before closing at a new all-time-high of 2,519. The fact that the index closed above the 2515 level (a key technical level) would suggest that we are likely to be heading next week to the 2525 level next week, and hopefully to 2575 level (or 2% higher from here) in over the next few weeks. The VIX volatility index (or "fear index") remains below key technical levels, suggesting that investors have a high level of confidence. To the downside, the index has plenty of support at the 2,492 level (1% below), which effectively acts as a "new floor" for the index.

"We are currently experiencing a "once in a lifetime" bull run that is likely to be highly rewarding; and we remind our members that we believe that it is best to remain fully invested to maximize your returns."

2-week free trial

I am all in plus one

Amazon 44%
Google 41%
Apple 10%
Netflix 3%
Facebook 2%
Union Pacific 1%
------------------------------
Total 101%

Rida Morwa 3:38 PM 2 Oct 2017

"To All Members, it looks like the S&P 500 will close above the 2525 level (which is very bullish) as we pointed out in our last market update. The VIX (Volatility Index) has been picking up in the past 2 hours, so investors are expecting some volatility in the next few days. ANY Pull-Back is a buying opportunity, although I should note that I do not agree we will see any price volatility or any price pullback. Our advise remains: STAY FULLY INVESTED. Those who are fully invested are likely to the rewarded the best."

$USA is an attractive CEF that captures all those "FANG" stocks in a basket, and pays a plump 8% quarterly dividend

This current bull market is only 4.5 years old!

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-09-22/there-s-nothing-old-about-this-bull-market

Pricey stocks. Union Pacific said to see revenue drop in
the next couple of quarters..will affect stock price.
but at 1% ..no effect if other picks do well.