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Campfire 'Bwana
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Campfire 'Bwana
Joined: Nov 2002
Posts: 33,791 Likes: 11 |
It's awfully hard to argue that emerging market success is related to US market demand, when the Dollar has been dropping quite steeply (which has made my move into foreign stocks EXTREMELY rewarding -- with YTD returns of 38%). The dollar index has dropped more than 10% since December 2016, and I don't really expect it to reverse in the short term.
My point is that growth in emerging markets is NOT dependent on US markets, but rather has become self-sustaining. The US market is still very significant, but consumer markets in China, India, Korea, Japan, South America and even newly emerging countries such as Indonesia now are now, in combination, multiple times bigger than the US market. Because they start from a lower base line, growth rates are higher, and there's more money being made by companies there.
In my view, the growth in the US stock market is more driven by foreign growth than US growth. In 2012, about half the revenue of the companies in the S&P came from foreign sources. Logically, that means about half the US stock market value is derived from foreign growth rates. Foreign growth goes up, US companies benefit, US stock market goes up. US dollar goes down, foreign holdings go up, and the US stock market goes up.
When people say that the US stock market is "irrational" because the market is doing much better than the US economy, they are missing the fact that the US stock market is as much a global stock market as a US stock market. If you take away the half of the recent growth of the US stock market that is due to foreign income, I think it reflects the US domestic economy quite well. I agree with the above. A chunk of my "play" money has been in emerging markets for about a year and a half. Of course, the tech funds continue to flatazz kickazz, the other chunk of my play money....
Conduct is the best proof of character.
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Joined: Jan 2009
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Campfire Ranger
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OP
Campfire Ranger
Joined: Jan 2009
Posts: 23,319 |
Energy MLPs have been pulling back for months . . . my advisor believes we have hit bottom and are head back up tomorrow in a big way. Two ways to play it are AMZA and the 2X leveraged MLPQ. Here is what he just wrote on the chat board . . .
Rida Morwa - 16:48 – 26 Oct 2017
"I expect to see huge gains in the Midstream sector starting tomorrow. I believe that we are past the bottom here. Members who were patient are set to be very well rewarded!! I believe it is still a great time to add MLPQ tomorrow. I am personally going to add to most of my midstream positions tomorrow. I believe it is going to be a great ride to the upside. For HDO members who still can add positions to the midstream sector, tomorrow will be a great day to do so."
"All that the South has ever desired was that the Union, as established by our forefathers, should be preserved, and that the government, as originally organized, should be administered in purity and truth." – Robert E. Lee
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Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 16,610
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 16,610 |
GE has been a falling knife for months. I wonder if it'll be a good longer term buy soon.
"Hey jackass, get your government off my freedom."
MOLON LABE
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Joined: Nov 2008
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Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 16,610 |
Friggin Amazon stock up 120 points today.
"Hey jackass, get your government off my freedom."
MOLON LABE
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Joined: Jan 2009
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Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Jan 2009
Posts: 23,319 |
I tried to find an answer on your GE question, but no joy. It is really continuing to fall. Not sure why. But I would not buy here.
"All that the South has ever desired was that the Union, as established by our forefathers, should be preserved, and that the government, as originally organized, should be administered in purity and truth." – Robert E. Lee
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Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Jan 2002
Posts: 12,889 Likes: 5 |
GE is falling because it's lost it's competitive soul. It went from Jack Welch to a administrator. It's like Steve Jobs and Apple. With Steve, great things (and a few disasters) happen on a yearly basis. Without Steve, nothing much happens. In business, standing still is failure.
Sic Semper Tyrannis
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Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Jan 2009
Posts: 23,319 |
"We can expect the bull market to run 8 to 10 more years," strategist Jeff Saut says. - Investors are witnessing the second leg of the bull market, and stocks likely have eight to 10 more years to grow, strategist Jeff Saut says. - "The second leg is usually the longest and the strongest. That's where earnings start to come on stronger and the economy improves," he says. https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2017/11/07/the-bull-market-has-8-to-10-more-years-left-jeff-saut.html
"All that the South has ever desired was that the Union, as established by our forefathers, should be preserved, and that the government, as originally organized, should be administered in purity and truth." – Robert E. Lee
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Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
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Bring it on! 
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Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
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As long as the interest rates stay slow, PE's will stay high.
Watch wages. Once wages start accelerating, inflation will follow within a year or so. That creates inflation, which increases interest rates. Interest rates will kill the growth, which kills PE's.
In the meantime, it's a mid-cycle election year next year. Expect a correction. That's spelled B U Y I N G O P P O R T U N I T Y.
Sic Semper Tyrannis
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Campfire 'Bwana
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Campfire 'Bwana
Joined: Nov 2002
Posts: 33,791 Likes: 11 |
As long as the interest rates stay slow, PE's will stay high.
Watch wages. Once wages start accelerating, inflation will follow within a year or so. That creates inflation, which increases interest rates. Interest rates will kill the growth, which kills PE's.
In the meantime, it's a mid-cycle election year next year. Expect a correction. That's spelled B U Y I N G O P P O R T U N I T Y. Bingo.
Conduct is the best proof of character.
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Joined: Jan 2009
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Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Jan 2009
Posts: 23,319 |
Quick Market Update - 18 Nov 2017 Rida MorwaThe S&P 500 index fell during the week, but found enough support at the 2550 level to turn around and form a hammer, which is a bullish sign. While this market is overextended by just about every metric we use, it is clear that the 2550 level is a major support level for the index.Therefore we believe that we are likely to go sideways for a few days to consolidate in order to build enough momentum to push higher. It is unlikely to see any significant pullbacks as most long term investors will not be interested in selling, since the risk to reward ratio simply won’t be there. Earnings season has been good, while macro-economic data across the globe continue to show strength, so that it is likely to continue to lift this market. It is also worth to note that when the US Congress will finally pass a tax bill, this should send stocks much higher. In the short term, we should break above the 2600 level for the S&P 500 index, while the long-term outlook of the market (including the year 2018) looks healthy and promising.
"All that the South has ever desired was that the Union, as established by our forefathers, should be preserved, and that the government, as originally organized, should be administered in purity and truth." – Robert E. Lee
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Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
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thats what i like to hear. i have been quite happy lately.
My diploma is a DD214
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Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
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Posts: 23,319 |
And Rida says here is an indication that energy MLPs are getting ready to take off. They are currently dirt cheap with huge yields. Increased Interest in the Midstream MLP spaceIt was noted that on Wednesday November 15, that there was some unusual options activities by bullish investors on the Midstream Alerian Index (AMLP). According to Jon Najarian from CNBC around 5,000 contracts of the January 10 calls in AMLP were traded in the first half of the trading session Wednesday. This confirms my thinking that the recovery in the Midstream sector could very well start before year-end. The video can be shown by clicking HERE.
"All that the South has ever desired was that the Union, as established by our forefathers, should be preserved, and that the government, as originally organized, should be administered in purity and truth." – Robert E. Lee
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Joined: Feb 2003
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Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Feb 2003
Posts: 10,414 Likes: 6 |
I saw my father buy $6k in MSFT that turned into $2M by 2000.
My father did not know what software was.
I bought Cisco and microsoft in the mid 1980s and lost money. How? I got whipsawed. I bought because it was going up and sold because it was going down.
I turned my life around in 1994 and started investing long term: msft, goog, and amzn.
There is nothing noble in being superior to your fellow man; true nobility is being superior to your former self. -Ernest Hemingway
The man who makes no mistakes does not usually make anything.-- Edward John Phelps
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Joined: Nov 2002
Posts: 33,791 Likes: 11
Campfire 'Bwana
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Campfire 'Bwana
Joined: Nov 2002
Posts: 33,791 Likes: 11 |
There is nothing like averaging $1,500/day sitting on ones azz.
Conduct is the best proof of character.
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Joined: May 2008
Posts: 25,542 Likes: 9
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: May 2008
Posts: 25,542 Likes: 9 |
I found $5 in my old Carharts the other day so suck it. 😁
�Politicians are the lowest form of life on earth. Liberal Democrats are the lowest form of politician.� �General George S. Patton, Jr.
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~Molɔ̀ːn Labé Skýla~
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Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Jan 2002
Posts: 12,889 Likes: 5 |
There is nothing like averaging $1,500/day sitting on ones azz. There is indeed something quite satisfying about making more in the market than at the day job..... Ah, the land of "critical mass". A good place to be.
Sic Semper Tyrannis
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Joined: Nov 2002
Posts: 33,791 Likes: 11
Campfire 'Bwana
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Campfire 'Bwana
Joined: Nov 2002
Posts: 33,791 Likes: 11 |
Indeed though we choose our investment paths a bit differently, me being retired, we do understand a bit of success alike.
Conduct is the best proof of character.
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Joined: Jan 2009
Posts: 23,319
Campfire Ranger
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OP
Campfire Ranger
Joined: Jan 2009
Posts: 23,319 |
GE has been a falling knife for months. I wonder if it'll be a good longer term buy soon. Insider buying at GE last week . . . http://www.insidearbitrage.com/insider-transactions/?symbol=GE
"All that the South has ever desired was that the Union, as established by our forefathers, should be preserved, and that the government, as originally organized, should be administered in purity and truth." – Robert E. Lee
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Joined: Feb 2003
Posts: 10,414 Likes: 6
Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Feb 2003
Posts: 10,414 Likes: 6 |
There is nothing like averaging $1,500/day sitting on ones azz. Most people think they would be happy if they just had more money. Once you get wealthy, you can't use lack of money as an excuse. One of the most miserable identifiable groups are lotto winners. The only lotto winners that are happy are those that continue working. Money can make it harder to resist the vices of ego, sloth, alcoholism, etc. If you are smart enough to get the money through wise choices, you should be wise enough to lead a righteous and humble life. Happiness will follow.
There is nothing noble in being superior to your fellow man; true nobility is being superior to your former self. -Ernest Hemingway
The man who makes no mistakes does not usually make anything.-- Edward John Phelps
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