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Joined: Jan 2005
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Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Jan 2005
Posts: 22,884 |
Big problem with the new Cali patient:
-no known contact with China, visitors, etc. so probably caught in the wild
-hospitalized for a week in an unsecure environment with the "flu"
-moved to UC Davis already intubated and on a ventilator
-was at UC Davis for at least 3 days not in full containment area
-our American govt refused to allow him to be tested for COVID
-he was finally tested this past Sunday for COVID over a week after being hospitalized
-our American govt just announced Wednesday that he was positive
-he was then placed under full disease containment including airborne
-UC Davis has put staff on quarantine and home monitoring
Our own govt was sandbagging us for a few days now. It becomes obvious now why SanFran pulled a state of emergency on Tuesday--they already knew it was spreading in the wild.
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Joined: Dec 2019
Posts: 17,222 Likes: 15
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Dec 2019
Posts: 17,222 Likes: 15 |
No chance Blodget (Business Insider) is less than 3/4 left of center.
-OMotS
"If memory serves fails me..."
Quote: ( unnamed) "been prtty deep in the cooler todaay "
Television and radio are most effective when people question little and think even less.
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Joined: Nov 2013
Posts: 997
Campfire Regular
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Campfire Regular
Joined: Nov 2013
Posts: 997 |
There is much ignorance and suckering for fear mongers going on.
The market was looking for an excuse for correction.
82,000 cases compared against the population of China.. oh wow and boy howdy
Mortality rates based on known infections and not including asymptomatic infections.
Might be a good idea to get some hard data and interpret what it means before more global panic.
Sure this could get worse but does not have to.
But then again, the DNC and a run on canned goods might save you.
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Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 24,267 Likes: 10
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 24,267 Likes: 10 |
So the low standard of healthcare in China has nothing to do with higher death rates vs the US? no worse than the regular flu No....it's worse. I quoted this earlier. This is based on numbers reported by China...if you think those numbers are accurate: Overall numbers to death: Flu: ~0.1% death rate in past...this season only at 0.05% COVID-19: ~2.9%....numbers broken down below https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html
Death rate
So far this flu season, about 0.05% of people who caught the flu have died from the virus in the U.S., according to CDC data.
The death rate for COVID-19 appears to be higher than that of the flu.
In the study published Feb. 18 in the China CDC Weekly, researchers found a death rate from COVID-19 to be around 2.3% in mainland China. That's much higher than the death rate linked to flu, which is typically around 0.1% in the U.S., according to The New York Times.
Even so, the death rate for COVID-19 varied by location and an individual’s age, among other factors. For instance, in Hubei Province, the epicenter of the outbreak, the death rate reached 2.9%; in other provinces of China, that rate was just 0.4%. In addition, older adults have been hit the hardest. The death rate soars to 14.8% in those 80 and older; among those ages 70 to 79, the COVID-19 death rate in China seems to be about 8%; it’s 3.6% for those ages 60 to 69; 1.3% for 50 to 59; 0.4% for the age group 40 to 49; and just 0.2% for people ages 10 to 39. Nobody 9 and under has died of this coronavirus to date.
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Joined: Sep 2004
Posts: 29,383
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Sep 2004
Posts: 29,383 |
no worse than the regular flu Well, the death rate is between 10 and 100x worse than influenza. But other than that...no worries I suppose. Ah no it is not. My Dr and I discussed it there is a 99.9 percent cure rate on people under 62.
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Joined: Sep 2004
Posts: 29,383
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Sep 2004
Posts: 29,383 |
There is much ignorance and suckering for fear mongers going on.
The market was looking for an excuse for correction.
82,000 cases compared against the population of China.. oh wow and boy howdy
Mortality rates based on known infections and not including asymptomatic infections.
Might be a good idea to get some hard data and interpret what it means before more global panic.
Sure this could get worse but does not have to.
But then again, the DNC and a run on canned goods might save you.
They might have 82000 people in an apartment building over there.
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Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 24,267 Likes: 10
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 24,267 Likes: 10 |
Don't pay attention to your DR as we have so many highly trained and educated virologists, microbiologists and disease experts now on the fire. no worse than the regular flu Well, the death rate is between 10 and 100x worse than influenza. But other than that...no worries I suppose. Ah no it is not. My Dr and I discussed it there is a 99.9 percent cure rate on people under 62.
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Joined: Sep 2004
Posts: 29,383
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Sep 2004
Posts: 29,383 |
Don't pay attention to your DR as we have so many highly trained and educated virologists, microbiologists and disease experts now on the fire. no worse than the regular flu Well, the death rate is between 10 and 100x worse than influenza. But other than that...no worries I suppose. Ah no it is not. My Dr and I discussed it there is a 99.9 percent cure rate on people under 62. Yeah what would this 32 year old punk who graduated top in his class at Wake Forest know about medicine? They have crap medical facilities inn China .
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Joined: Feb 2002
Posts: 18,667 Likes: 1
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Feb 2002
Posts: 18,667 Likes: 1 |
i thought trump looked unusually low key in his address yesterday
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Joined: Sep 2004
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Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Sep 2004
Posts: 29,383 |
i thought trump looked unusually low key in his address yesterday He did and he did say he would spend the appropriate money something the stupid communists denied the next day.
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Joined: Mar 2014
Posts: 464
Campfire Member
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Campfire Member
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Is this thing really any worse than swine or bird flu? I feel like its a nasty cold with a lot of media hype.
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Joined: Sep 2003
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Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Sep 2003
Posts: 23,471 Likes: 8 |
Trump is trying to prevent a panic and the market crash that would follow. He re-election depends on a strong market
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Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 24,267 Likes: 10
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 24,267 Likes: 10 |
Ive worked in China. You spend much time over there? Don't pay attention to your DR as we have so many highly trained and educated virologists, microbiologists and disease experts now on the fire. no worse than the regular flu Well, the death rate is between 10 and 100x worse than influenza. But other than that...no worries I suppose. Ah no it is not. My Dr and I discussed it there is a 99.9 percent cure rate on people under 62. Yeah what would this 32 year old punk who graduated top in his class at Wake Forest know about medicine? They have crap medical facilities inn China .
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Joined: Jan 2005
Posts: 22,884
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Jan 2005
Posts: 22,884 |
no worse than the regular flu Well, the death rate is between 10 and 100x worse than influenza. But other than that...no worries I suppose. Ah no it is not. My Dr and I discussed it there is a 99.9 percent cure rate on people under 62. You and your good doc need to brush up on statistics a bit. What are you going to do with all of the people over age 62? I mean the octogenarians especially, you know, the ones with the over 15% death rate. Or the septuagenarians, with the over 8% death rate. And no one is "cured" of a virus. Oh, by the way, given your original selective statistic, it would still be at least 10x more of a killer than influenza on average in the under-62 age group.
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Joined: Jan 2005
Posts: 22,884
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Jan 2005
Posts: 22,884 |
Is this thing really any worse than swine or bird flu? I feel like its a nasty cold with a lot of media hype. It is worse than a cold or the influenza, if any of the numbers are close to correct. Rnaught well above 2 (actually over 2.5) everywhere it has manifested; death rate consistently over 2% (actually over 2.5%), unusually long incubation period. That would put it on the order almost exactly of the 1918 Spanish influenza that killed 50 million back then. If COVID19 can run the table without being slowed/contained, then there will be a larger-than-anything-else bunch of deaths. 98% of the population on average will fight it off and gain immunity (hopefully, not proven yet); the other 2% will die (concentrated in the oldest population). China claims to have gotten it under control with declining infection rates. That is a highly-unlikely claim. They probably simply quit testing for it with the actual test kit which is in short supply around the world and is known to have very high false negative readings.
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Joined: Jan 2020
Posts: 385
Campfire Member
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Campfire Member
Joined: Jan 2020
Posts: 385 |
Is this thing really any worse than swine or bird flu? I feel like its a nasty cold with a lot of media hype. It is worse than a cold or the influenza, if any of the numbers are close to correct. Rnaught well above 2 (actually over 2.5) everywhere it has manifested; death rate consistently over 2% (actually over 2.5%), unusually long incubation period. That would put it on the order almost exactly of the 1918 Spanish influenza that killed 50 million back then. If COVID19 can run the table without being slowed/contained, then there will be a larger-than-anything-else bunch of deaths. 98% of the population on average will fight it off and gain immunity (hopefully, not proven yet); the other 2% will die (concentrated in the oldest population). China claims to have gotten it under control with declining infection rates. That is a highly-unlikely claim. They probably simply quit testing for it with the actual test kit which is in short supply around the world and is known to have very high false negative readings. There comes a time when you gotta just say [bleep] it and let people think what they're going to think lol. We'll all have our truth here real shortly.
You can lead a horse...
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Joined: Dec 2019
Posts: 17,222 Likes: 15
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Dec 2019
Posts: 17,222 Likes: 15 |
So the low standard of healthcare in China has nothing to do with higher death rates vs the US? no worse than the regular flu No....it's worse. I quoted this earlier. This is based on numbers reported by China...if you think those numbers are accurate: Overall numbers to death: Flu: ~0.1% death rate in past...this season only at 0.05% COVID-19: ~2.9%....numbers broken down below https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html
Death rate
So far this flu season, about 0.05% of people who caught the flu have died from the virus in the U.S., according to CDC data.
The death rate for COVID-19 appears to be higher than that of the flu.
In the study published Feb. 18 in the China CDC Weekly, researchers found a death rate from COVID-19 to be around 2.3% in mainland China. That's much higher than the death rate linked to flu, which is typically around 0.1% in the U.S., according to The New York Times.
Even so, the death rate for COVID-19 varied by location and an individual’s age, among other factors. For instance, in Hubei Province, the epicenter of the outbreak, the death rate reached 2.9%; in other provinces of China, that rate was just 0.4%. In addition, older adults have been hit the hardest. The death rate soars to 14.8% in those 80 and older; among those ages 70 to 79, the COVID-19 death rate in China seems to be about 8%; it’s 3.6% for those ages 60 to 69; 1.3% for 50 to 59; 0.4% for the age group 40 to 49; and just 0.2% for people ages 10 to 39. Nobody 9 and under has died of this coronavirus to date.
Perhaps less health care than bad air? ( China is famous for that) Or perhaps compounded by air and health care? Something I read yesterday I said that respiratory capacity is the Key to surviving... Is smoking still more prevalent in China than the U.S.? Their statistics say 99.4 survival rate to 69yo or 79yo.. So better if you live in a rural environment in the U.S. ? That could easily bump it to 99.9%
-OMotS
"If memory serves fails me..."
Quote: ( unnamed) "been prtty deep in the cooler todaay "
Television and radio are most effective when people question little and think even less.
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Joined: Jan 2005
Posts: 22,884
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Jan 2005
Posts: 22,884 |
Their air is horrendous. 40% of Chinese males smoke tobacco. There is a possibility (though unlikely) that East Asian males have more of certain lung receptors that COVID19 can infect. Their sanitation overall is much worse than here.
Put it all together, and maybe we can be at a 99.9% recovery rate. Awesome! Still 10x worse than influenza given that best scenario.
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Joined: Feb 2002
Posts: 18,667 Likes: 1
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Feb 2002
Posts: 18,667 Likes: 1 |
one thing is for sure...within the next 2-3 weeks we'll have a better idea of what we face in the US, because it works extremely fast. if by then all 50 states have cases with rapidly growing numbers, hang on.
on the positive side, there has been speculation that it is already settling down in China, and if true, would do so quickly here in the States. Of course, that is kinda hard to believe, and could be false.
Last edited by sse; 02/28/20.
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Joined: Jan 2012
Posts: 26,529 Likes: 3
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Jan 2012
Posts: 26,529 Likes: 3 |
One thing to keep in mind:
We really don't know that the #'s given by China are truthful.
There could have been many more deaths than what they show but on the other hand there could have also been many more that were infected and survived.
Factual #'s could skew the death rate in either direction.
FJB & FJT
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