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Joined: Nov 2003
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Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Nov 2003
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JG, what do you think of the retired head of Exxon saying oil would go to 20 this year? Which one, Jag ? Lee Raymond ?
The degree of my privacy is no business of yours.
What we've learned from history is that we haven't learned from it.
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Joined: Dec 2008
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Campfire Outfitter
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Joined: Dec 2008
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Some of us 'little guys' smelled bottom yesterday.
The OXY (and MRO) I picked up yesterday and doubled down on this morning popped 14% and 21% respectively by market close.
You realize that bounce up is just as, if not MORE, volatile than it's move yesterday? If I were in your shoes, I'd be back out of that ASAP and lock up that (lucky) profit. My educated guess is that it gives up half those gains tomorrow, and starts a 3 month spiral down to under $10. Look - OXY is a HEAVILY leveraged shale company. At $12B market valuation, that have SIGNIFICANTLY more debt than Cheveron, a $160B company. Let that sink in. They are the #1 producer in the Permian basin, where their cost per barrel is now hovering right around the current cost per barrel on the market, which, oh by the way, experts think will drop down into the $20's.. I have news for you: Oil under $30 is a non-starter for OXY. They cannot pull it out of the Permian for that cheap. Game over. And today, Saudi Arabia just promised to jack up their oil production, in a global market for oil that is CRATERING. They are augmenting their 41 tanker fleet with extra private ships, and are runnign simulations on how their economy will look at oil all the way down to $12 bbl. There is a reason OXY announced slashed dividends and reduced capital spending (by more than 30%) going forward- and it's not because life is good in the oil industry. It's panic, and a fight to stay solvent, ESPECIALLY for the shale producers. The botton for energy is months away, but I will be there with you, when it's real. But... your mileage may vary. I think we are in the same camp, I’ve seen this movie before as the bear takes hold. Coronavirus is just getting warmed up, so expect lots of bad news soon, add oil on top of that. Lots highly leveraged are companies are probably going to zero soon. A good time to get small.
"Life is tough, even tougher if your stupid"
John Wayne
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Joined: Jul 2006
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Campfire Tracker
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What do you think of the odds of the shale guys getting a bailout from Uncle Sugar? I don't think Trump would like to see Russia and Saudi Arabia put them under.
THAT is your investment strategy? That my taxpayer dollars will bail out your poorly planned and ill-researched decisions??? Instead of investing in solid industries and companies with a reasonable chance of success, throw some lawn darts at companies bouncing like dead cats and assume you'll be made whole? You by chance voting for Biden this election season? Geez dude, chill out and breathe! If you accused me of voting for Biden in person I'd have to challenge you to a duel!  Your and my tax dollars, along with interest robbed from savers by the central banks bailed out the entire system 10 years ago. Who is to say it won't happen again in this case when/if things go down hill a little more and they start handing out money? Its called a wildcard. I've been in the markets for 30 years. Let's say I've done alright and leave it at that. I can assure you that I am not here looking for advice from you or anyone else. So, just hop off your high horse for a second. You are not the only one here that's seen a thing or two. PS. I haven't bought any oil stocks this century.
Last edited by RJY66; 03/10/20.
"Men must be governed by God or they will be ruled by tyrants". --- William Penn
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Joined: Feb 2007
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What do you think of the odds of the shale guys getting a bailout from Uncle Sugar? I don't think Trump would like to see Russia and Saudi Arabia put them under.
THAT is your investment strategy? That my taxpayer dollars will bail out your poorly planned and ill-researched decisions??? Instead of investing in solid industries and companies with a reasonable chance of success, throw some lawn darts at companies bouncing like dead cats and assume you'll be made whole? You by chance voting for Biden this election season? Geez dude, chill out and breathe! If you accused me of voting for Biden in person I'd have to challenge you to a duel! Your and my tax dollars, along with interest robbed from savers by the central banks bailed out the entire system 10 years ago. Who is to say it won't happen again in this case when/if things go down hill a little more and they start handing out money? Its called a wildcard. I've been in the markets for 30 years. Let's say I've done alright and leave it at that. I can assure you that I am not here looking for advice from you or anyone else. So, just hop off your high horse for a second. You are not the only one here that's seen a thing or two. PS. I haven't bought any oil stocks this century. It's all good my friend, and my apologies! I haven't been investing as long as you (25 years here) but like you, have done well enough. I just have a long history in oil and it is an industry I follow extremely closely. Didn't mean to be on a high horse, this is just a particular investement sector, for a number of personal reasons, that I am both passionate about, and highly skilled at. I'd hate to see someone making a poor decision based on some non-chalante comments they take seriously. But then, this is not an investement forum and we can't control those folks. I hope you find the right spot to sell and realize those gains you saw today!
The DIPCHIT ADD, after a morning of drinking:
You despair, repeatedly, constantly! daily basis?
A despair ninny.
Sack up, despire ninny.
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Joined: May 2011
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Campfire Outfitter
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Joined: May 2011
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Some of us 'little guys' smelled bottom yesterday. The OXY (and MRO) I picked up yesterday and doubled down on this morning popped 14% and 21% respectively by market close. Did you buy and hold? What was the buy price? I'm going to hold. I don't believe the doom and gloom we constantly hear around here. Hell, I shouldn't have bought an oil stock at all this week according to some. Bought OXY at 17.32 yesterday and then again at 13.37 this morning after the dividend announcement. That's probably not conventional wisdom, but I suspected that if the market didn't punt it after both the temporary halt in (OXY) trading and missed dividend it would rebound. After a slight upward trend I piled in. It did bounce and very nicely. I bought MRO at 3.87. It's up 23% today.
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Joined: Feb 2007
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I am investing in oil this week, but it is some carefully calculated and leveraged short orders in a few spots. I went largely out of oil in 2018 (pretty good timing), just making shorter term plays based on some industry research since then. I will go back into oil with some more specific stocks for the longer term, in 2-6 months, depending on how all this plays out.
They say you can't time the market, which I 100% agree with. I won't even pretend to suggest I can pick individual stocks anywhere else. Oil though, there are some key indicators (economic, political, and others) that drive the end stock prices, that make it ripe for cherry picking.
The DIPCHIT ADD, after a morning of drinking:
You despair, repeatedly, constantly! daily basis?
A despair ninny.
Sack up, despire ninny.
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Joined: Jul 2006
Posts: 4,897 Likes: 6
Campfire Tracker
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Joined: Jul 2006
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What do you think of the odds of the shale guys getting a bailout from Uncle Sugar? I don't think Trump would like to see Russia and Saudi Arabia put them under.
THAT is your investment strategy? That my taxpayer dollars will bail out your poorly planned and ill-researched decisions??? Instead of investing in solid industries and companies with a reasonable chance of success, throw some lawn darts at companies bouncing like dead cats and assume you'll be made whole? You by chance voting for Biden this election season? Geez dude, chill out and breathe! If you accused me of voting for Biden in person I'd have to challenge you to a duel! Your and my tax dollars, along with interest robbed from savers by the central banks bailed out the entire system 10 years ago. Who is to say it won't happen again in this case when/if things go down hill a little more and they start handing out money? Its called a wildcard. I've been in the markets for 30 years. Let's say I've done alright and leave it at that. I can assure you that I am not here looking for advice from you or anyone else. So, just hop off your high horse for a second. You are not the only one here that's seen a thing or two. PS. I haven't bought any oil stocks this century. It's all good my friend, and my apologies! I haven't been investing as long as you (25 years here) but like you, have done well enough. I just have a long history in oil and it is an industry I follow extremely closely. Didn't mean to be on a high horse, this is just a particular investement sector, for a number of personal reasons, that I am both passionate about, and highly skilled at. I'd hate to see someone making a poor decision based on some non-chalante comments they take seriously. But then, this is not an investement forum and we can't control those folks. I hope you find the right spot to sell and realize those gains you saw today! Apology accepted and thanks for it! Just an internet misunderstanding. I'm not the one with the gains to take.....unfortunately for me that is the other fella! I remember a similar situation back in the late 90's up till about 2000. I was buying the drillers mainly Transocean and Falcon. The idea was that they had such a backlog that they were going to be able to survive the downturn which they did more or less, but the stocks still got hammered along with the oil price. I bought way to early, eventually came out, but in the interim thought I was gonna go broke! Oil got all the way down to $13 a barrel back then I think. So believe me I understand being a little cautious. I have not messed with oil stocks since then. I am starting to watch them now because Monday's crash got my attention and if I go in its probably gonna be with Exxon and or Shell. Anyway, I could sense that you knew the oil industry and that is why I raised the issue of govt assistance for them at some point. Govt plays such a big role in the markets now and IMO, if this is the start of a significant downturn they are gonna fight it tooth and nail with "monetary policy" that we probably have not though of yet.
Last edited by RJY66; 03/10/20.
"Men must be governed by God or they will be ruled by tyrants". --- William Penn
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Joined: Sep 2013
Posts: 18,229 Likes: 40
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Sep 2013
Posts: 18,229 Likes: 40 |
We could see 18k by the end of the month.... We could see 30k by the end of the month... Gamblers, place your bets! Kyle Bass thinks there is more downside. I’ll take the under at this point. Dow closes up 4.89% , S&P 500 +4.94% , NASDAQ +4.95% I’m still taking the under ...
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Campfire Tracker
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Campfire Tracker
Joined: Jul 2006
Posts: 4,897 Likes: 6 |
"Men must be governed by God or they will be ruled by tyrants". --- William Penn
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Joined: Jan 2010
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Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Jan 2010
Posts: 23,590 Likes: 3 |
interesting that Russia and the Saudi's prop up their oil industry under the assumption that we won't
you can make the argument that our oil production is a matter of national security
have you paid your dues, can you moan the blues, can you bend them guitar strings
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Joined: Sep 2003
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Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Sep 2003
Posts: 23,568 Likes: 22 |
How low will Ford go before Ol Toot can’t resist any longer?
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Joined: Dec 2008
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Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Dec 2008
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How low will Ford go before Ol Toot can’t resist any longer? The PE at $6 in 172, Debt to equity ~500%. That's like dating a old ugly gal that used to be hot.
"Life is tough, even tougher if your stupid"
John Wayne
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Joined: Nov 2003
Posts: 28,411
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Nov 2003
Posts: 28,411 |
How low will Ford go before Ol Toot can’t resist any longer? The PE at $6 in 172, Debt to equity ~500%. That's like dating a old ugly gal that used to be hot. Heh! You bout said it all and then some!
The degree of my privacy is no business of yours.
What we've learned from history is that we haven't learned from it.
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Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 4,208
Campfire Tracker
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Campfire Tracker
Joined: Feb 2007
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OXY took a pounding today, down nearly 18%, and broke clean through its $12.04 support floor.
Hope you all locked in those gains.
The DIPCHIT ADD, after a morning of drinking:
You despair, repeatedly, constantly! daily basis?
A despair ninny.
Sack up, despire ninny.
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Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 61,335 Likes: 35
Campfire Kahuna
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Campfire Kahuna
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 61,335 Likes: 35 |
These premises insured by a Sheltie in Training ,--- and Cooey.o
"May the Good Lord take a likin' to you"
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Joined: Dec 2016
Posts: 1,536
Campfire Regular
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Campfire Regular
Joined: Dec 2016
Posts: 1,536 |
We pray our sights be straight
and our aim be true
We pray for no pain
to the game we pursue
We thank you Lord
for this land
We thank you for the sights
from our stands
We pray for safety, one and all
We pray we may return next fall
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Campfire Regular
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Campfire Regular
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As a young man, with money saved up. Is there anything I should be doing right now? Regarding to stocks and investments.
Last edited by Travis13; 03/11/20.
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Campfire Outfitter
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OP
Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Oct 2012
Posts: 7,643 Likes: 3 |
As a young man, with money saved up. Is there anything I should be doing right now? Regarding to stocks and investments. Don't take advice here whatever you do. 😂
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Joined: Jan 2005
Posts: 12,359
Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Jan 2005
Posts: 12,359 |
As a young man, with money saved up. Is there anything I should be doing right now? Regarding to stocks and investments. Don't take advice here whatever you do. 😂 lol
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Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 8,346 Likes: 3
Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 8,346 Likes: 3 |
As a young man, with money saved up. Is there anything I should be doing right now? Regarding to stocks and investments. Don't take advice here whatever you do. 😂 Probably the best advice. I'd hang on until it bottoms and then invest in some quality companies. Companies like Apple, Amazon, Microsoft,, Boeing, etc are not going anyplace but might take a beating for a while.
"Life is tough, even tougher if your stupid"
John Wayne
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