Home Forums Hunting & Shooting Hunter's Campfire Stock Market - Who wants to predict the bottom?

Probably not a bad move.

Information is free......

Dead cat bounce. Sucker rally. Down to 3k

Put some more in yesterday, so here's hoping that we aren't far from dead-stop bottom

It might not be far from bottom with brigade of money dropping helicopter the feds are bringing in. Money for everyone!

Of course it won't be worth as much, but whatever

I think this virus has a ways to go. Now, I’m not a doomsdayer, I just think we have some more bad numbers to digest until things are trending up. What that means for the markets, well, I don’t know. If I still have a comfortable employment situation in 3-4 week, I’ll look for some places to put cash.

If I have to state a number to participate, I’ll go 17k.

Which makes no sense that it keeps going down, the end is in sight for China already.

We may have it covered here better than there I suspect, so our exposure should be less.

At least I THINK I'm seeing the start of the end of this already.

cheerful!

I will bite.

The Dow will take a breath at $12k and bounce around for a bit. Then it will plummet to $7k where it will bottom out for about half a year. Earnings will strengthen and it will start climbing from there. Historical deep bottoms had P/E ratios of 7 vs. current 22ish. Oh, and the "E" part of the equation will crater.

3k - you short the market? LOL

Good discussion folks.....Luv2 - cannot blame you, I think money is to be made in the overall market ie. S&P from here down, if you have a long term horizon which obviously you likely do.

China quarantined any affected areas with armed guards and prevented the spread of C-19 through the general population and throughout the nation. I fully expect to see a second round of C-19 sweep across Mainland China when the virus inevitably escapes containment. Just as was observed with the similar pandemic of 1918.

I have not seen any military enforced confinements in America. The disease is already present in every state, and within two weeks will be present in every community. Expect infection numbers to skyrocket over the next two months. With death rates following the same trend two to three weeks later.

I will hold my 401 K in cash for at least two more months before converting to growth funds.

well said!

I bought GE stock in 2008 and did quite well with its rebound short term

I wouldn't touch it now

We haven't had that yet. We are still in crash mode. What we have to watch out for is a furious rally "after the virus gets under control" of several weeks to a couple of months that regains approximately half of the crash back, whatever that winds up being. The Grandaddy of all sucker rallies was in 1930 after the 1929 crash. It lasted 6 months. Don't you know those poor people thought they were in a "new bull market". Thanks to the internet, you can look at charts of past bear markets and see that they don't go straight down. This one probably won't be any different.

On the other hand, don't you think the people in 1987 thought a depression was on the way and the recovery from the crash was a sucker rally.

You can make a ton of money with old charts and a time machine!

My personal concern with this current situation is that everyone will think that its over when the virus gets over and create the sucker rally but the rest and largest part of the bear market will take place because all the money being "dropped from helicopters" causes structural problems in the system. In other words it won't be a financial crisis until it is. Eventually, confidence in the Feds is gonna be broken and when that happens its Katy bar the freakin door. Don't know if that's now or 10 years from now because they might be able to "kick the can down the road" yet again.

This thing has already transitioned from a health/medical crisis to a financial one a couple weeks ago. The financial part will be much worse than the viral part.

I would look to how long it took China and South Korea to peak and recover as a gauge.


IMO it's time to start looking at stocks that have been thrown out with the bath water, but we probably have another %7-%10 downside to go over over the next moth or two. The rally up after this is going to be fast and violent. Hold on to your hats, you don't miss that one even if you buy a little early it's OK. I generally hate stocks, but this is setting up to be a great buying opportunity, If I'm wrong you will be able to find me greeting folks at the local Walmart until I'm dead

I may really regret this but I bought a bunch of Royal Dutch Shell today. I'm looking to hold it long term and the dividend looked great. It's still dropping like a rock so I hope the company is still around in 10 years. If the dividend holds it'll pay for itself in about 5 years.

Bb

Did someone say just 1,800?

Phil

Good stuff folks. Big drop today. Should be many more down days before the infection numbers drop. Yet, odds are you can make money from anywhere here down. My guess.

19,191
As I type this ...

18,000s any day now. I started buying XLE energy sector spider options with a January 2022 expiration.