When do you think it will bottom, and how low do you feel it will go?

Seen in Y2K, 2001-2002, and 2008 it get cut in half.

If you were buying, when would you begin.......and would you DCA and if so, how so?

I'm just riding along. I have 3 to 4 years left to work. Not going to lock in a loss. If it goes down by half, I might put in half my cash if I'm still working.

Hard to guess but not sure how dollar cost averaging in would be a bad call.

At this point it hard to say how much of this is priced in.

i moved all my tax sheltered equity holdings into cash/bonds on 2/14. i will move back in when the dow is around 18 or mid-may unless schit seems really bad, which i doubt. i invest in vanguard index and target date funds mainly and only one individual stock which is minor. i am not a pig and not a market timer. i just don't want to see my portfolio go in half like it did in 2008. i am between 1-3 years from retirement. as for my non-tax deferred holdings, i kept them so i wouldn't take a tax hit and am continuing to invest twice monthly to dollar cost average some of this pain away.

and i have a garage full of toilet paper and 22 ammo so there's that.

"They" do not ring a bell at the peak, nor does a bell ring at the bottom.

23,185.62

I don't think it will get lower than 14k, 12k is my absolute worst case guess. I thought of buying some yesterday but I'm still hesitant. If it hits 18k I'll probably start buying there for sure.

Bb

I've got this........the bottom is 0. learned that in 1st grade.

Looking for 17k, then index funds.

Just my opinion and not based on anything but I think it will bottom out about 20,000 and be up to 30,000 by year's end.

Good comments, and some humor as well. Folks going stupid around here, hoarding TP, etc. Panic is far worse than what will come with CV, but the fallout, business lost followed by job loss will sting, at least short term, and affect consumer and investor confidence. It's taken a good hit already, but I think we are in for more........no doubt no one can predict or time the market. Who saw this black swan coming? Just like 2008, and 911, etc.

I do believe like the past, history shows a strong likelihood this will eventually pass and the markets will recover. Agree with those nearing retirement to play it safe. The lower it goes, the more risks is removed for any new capital.

I was thinking 15K, but slowmover12's 17K might be the better call.

The disruption will be temporary (6mo - 1yr?), if Big Brother helps prevent all the loan defaults, I think we will bounce back pdq.

Just guessing though.

As are most.

The disruption is real, even if covid -19 turns out to be way overblown (as most of our experts here opine).

Nothing would surprise me at this point - but the situation isn’t resolving tomorrow, and we are a long way from max pain in my opinion.

I hope I’m wrong.

The market crashed in 1929 and bounced right back about 1953.

I'll take a WAG - 18,300 on the dow in June 18th

I hope it's no worse than that anyway.

I worry less about the Dow than corn, and soybeans, and fat cattle.

My guess is 14,000-15,000. So far I moved 10% back in end of Feb and another 5% back in at about 23,000. Still have 25% out but have to be careful as I can only make 2 moves a month with our 401k.

We've already seen the bottom.

I can't answer what level it will drop to. But it sure as hell will rebound and this one I think will rebound fast. Its based purely on one fear.

Yes I would DCA and buying sound businesses. I would stay as far away from Oil and Gas as possible.

The crash of 2008 was totally predictable. It was predicated by policies initiated in the Clinton administration. I think Bush knew it was going to crash but hoped it would hold off until after the first of the year when the magic negroe would be president.
911 was a different story.

I respect your intellect and posts more than a little.
I hope you are correct.
I fear you may be mistaken on this one.

Yes, I could be wrong. But at this point, it's my best guess.

Trump is listening to the right people and doing the right things.

One March Madness was cancelled, which was not a Trump actions, to me, that signaled we were near peak news. At that point, there's no one else to tell.

Hope you're right. On Thursday I bought some Alaska Air and Carnival Cruise. Also some SLV. Silver was about 100 to 1 on the gold ratio. But silver still took a dive Friday.

Whatever it is, it won't look NEARLY as nice as the Beach Angel one in the Boob Survey...

It lost about 4k in 2008 from 13k
Closer to 1/3

19,500 would match that

14k October 2007 to 6.5k March 2009.

Might want to check out what Dr. Michael Burry is up to and I need to do the same. I made a butt load of money with that guy during the 2007-08 sub prime meltdown but it was one fuggin hairy ride for sure.

His hedge fund knocked the money ball out of the park. He’s only investing for himself and a small group of others since then and after he shut the fund down.

He shorted this market a while back.

He wasn't wrong, he was just early.

RE OP Topic: It’s the same as asking who wants to predict the top. How about predicting where the market is in 3 years, how about 5 years from today. Remember volatility works both ways as last Friday surely showed. The stock market (equities) is a great place to make money over time, but you need to have at least two-three years living expenses in liquidity (cash) on hand to weather the downside, hold on to your current assets and take advantage of buys for the future uptick. It’s not for everyone and hard to stomach when modest investors portfolios devalue $500K-$1.0M in a few days, especially if your contemplating retirement or are living off of current investment income. The key is playing the market for long positions and keeping significant cash on the side. Of course the companies you hold assets in should have low debt and large cash balance sheets after dividends paid at years end. Chin up it will move forward again over time.

What time frame are you talking about ?

No doubt, investing in equities, for most (not traders) is a long-term proposition to cut risk and realize potential. No one knows the timing or tops and bottoms, but a lot of folks get a fairly educated (via experience) of trends.....I personally think the pain of what is going on with CV19 is not going away anytime soon, and likely not hit it's peak intensity. If that is correct, it could well be that the markets will go lower......

Yes, I do agree, based on history, this will rebound back, and it's currently all about fear, though it could perhaps spark a recession, certainly 2020 profits will drop for many businesses. All that means less the further out you look for long-term investing.

Having seen several major corrections before of +/- 50% ...........we have a ways to go to get there. Not placing any best, but I'd not be shocked to see 18.........and even 15-16......on the Dow. Speaking of which, you folks looking more at the Dow or S&P as an indicator? Do you feel Nasdaq will lead the way when the markets ultimately recover?

On DCA, do you folks do a set timing or pick down days to buy into on intervals? Great comments folks, thanks for sharing your thoughts.

Will they let the stock brokers trade..................doesn't the floor of the stock exchange hold more than 500 people?

Not sure why everyone looks so much at the DOW, other than the news media is constantly talking about it. I pay more attention to the S&P which reflects a much more broader swath of the overall market. I'm certain we have a good bit further down to go and that there will be significant economic effects from the pandemic situation combined with other aspects of the world economy that aren't going away soon. Sure we may get a good bounce but this is not going to be over anytime soon unless someone comes up with a way to prevent or treat the virus soon and even then there will be lasting economic and political impacts.

Winner, winner, chicken dinner!



But, I hope ‘sniper is right.

This here.

I'm thinking once China gets itself straightened out the commodities will come back around. Folks still gotta eat, and the Corona isn't gonna kill that many.

19k

My thoughts too. Hoping we're right.

Vaccine is well ahead of schedule and should be in testing in 2 weeks. That was a news report I was listening too on the way home on Thursday

MSFT 27.50

The challenge is going to be sitting out and not missing most of the rebound because you dont believe in the bottom. I think there is a really good profit to be made if one just got in right now and let it ride. That being said, it is dropping on monday according to reports.

MSFT is a good company....

Folks, if you have dry powder, this might be very rewarding and continue getting better......a few more days like this.....we could be at a 50% drop from highs.

Per above, YES, the S&P is a better indicator to use I agree.....do you folks think the Nasdaq will rebound faster and stronger than the S&P, relatively the same, or under perform it? Just a guess, not holding anyone to anything, it's all a guess.

65%, down around 12,000 if its only a recession.

Phil

I am and have been DCA on IDXX a great stock. I usually buy when I have enough for a block.

17K will be real close to the bottom.

I'm glad I jumped out at 25K. My broker thought I was rash and too cautious. I'll buy when it drops below 18K but not all in.

Looks like I was wrong.

I was wrong also......I thought that it was about 3000 points ago! memtb

You do not need to hit the very bottom, and you do not need to sell at the peak. Greed distorts thinking.

On October 23rd 1929 JP Morgan attempted to end the route in stocks.

He walked onto the Floor of the NYSE and bid $205.00 per share of 10,000 shares of X (U.S.Steel). But the market didn't care, and continued lower.

That's kind of what it did to Jerome this morning. Last night he bid 0% interest rates and 700 Billion in quantitative easing, and the market sighed, and went lower....

look for a 4 digit dow before this is done.

Good stuff, looks like IDXX is in a good business, not subject to typical pharma issues.

As to the bottom, I agree on that 18 as an entry point.........based on today, we might hit that this week, and then some.

If CV is not resolved soon, do most of you think the markets will continue eroding or find a bottom around half of the 52 wk highs?

I agree, can make money buying nor and lower and you can't pick the highs and lows - yes overthinking and greed will distort.

IDXX has been my golden baby for me since 2004. My Vet turned me onto it.

It’s going to 18000 or lower

I'm buying when
MSFT hits 132
AAPL hits 225
AMZN hits 1700

Man you either have very deep pockets or are not buying blocks. If you aren't buying in blocks that brings the price per share up divided by the trade fees. Which leads to another thing you'll most likely do much better in a solid No-Load Fund.

Add GE to the list.

I'd bet GE doesn't see the other side of this recession and I don't think Ford will either. At least without a big gov bailout and restructuring. .

Here is an interesting chart I found. Something to think about.

https://howmuch.net/articles/best-performing-stocks

You are kidding right? I highly doubt GE is going anywhere but up over the long term. No I don't see them as a big winner but they are a sound company.

Bought into an S&P fund today.

I took 65% of what I had when I sold at DOW 25K and am keeping 35% to buy in if it really tanks...rock bottom.

Probably not a bad move.

Information is free......

Dead cat bounce. Sucker rally. Down to 3k

Put some more in yesterday, so here's hoping that we aren't far from dead-stop bottom

It might not be far from bottom with brigade of money dropping helicopter the feds are bringing in. Money for everyone!

Of course it won't be worth as much, but whatever

I think this virus has a ways to go. Now, I’m not a doomsdayer, I just think we have some more bad numbers to digest until things are trending up. What that means for the markets, well, I don’t know. If I still have a comfortable employment situation in 3-4 week, I’ll look for some places to put cash.

If I have to state a number to participate, I’ll go 17k.

Which makes no sense that it keeps going down, the end is in sight for China already.

We may have it covered here better than there I suspect, so our exposure should be less.

At least I THINK I'm seeing the start of the end of this already.

cheerful!

I will bite.

The Dow will take a breath at $12k and bounce around for a bit. Then it will plummet to $7k where it will bottom out for about half a year. Earnings will strengthen and it will start climbing from there. Historical deep bottoms had P/E ratios of 7 vs. current 22ish. Oh, and the "E" part of the equation will crater.

3k - you short the market? LOL

Good discussion folks.....Luv2 - cannot blame you, I think money is to be made in the overall market ie. S&P from here down, if you have a long term horizon which obviously you likely do.

China quarantined any affected areas with armed guards and prevented the spread of C-19 through the general population and throughout the nation. I fully expect to see a second round of C-19 sweep across Mainland China when the virus inevitably escapes containment. Just as was observed with the similar pandemic of 1918.

I have not seen any military enforced confinements in America. The disease is already present in every state, and within two weeks will be present in every community. Expect infection numbers to skyrocket over the next two months. With death rates following the same trend two to three weeks later.

I will hold my 401 K in cash for at least two more months before converting to growth funds.

well said!

I bought GE stock in 2008 and did quite well with its rebound short term

I wouldn't touch it now

We haven't had that yet. We are still in crash mode. What we have to watch out for is a furious rally "after the virus gets under control" of several weeks to a couple of months that regains approximately half of the crash back, whatever that winds up being. The Grandaddy of all sucker rallies was in 1930 after the 1929 crash. It lasted 6 months. Don't you know those poor people thought they were in a "new bull market". Thanks to the internet, you can look at charts of past bear markets and see that they don't go straight down. This one probably won't be any different.

On the other hand, don't you think the people in 1987 thought a depression was on the way and the recovery from the crash was a sucker rally.

You can make a ton of money with old charts and a time machine!

My personal concern with this current situation is that everyone will think that its over when the virus gets over and create the sucker rally but the rest and largest part of the bear market will take place because all the money being "dropped from helicopters" causes structural problems in the system. In other words it won't be a financial crisis until it is. Eventually, confidence in the Feds is gonna be broken and when that happens its Katy bar the freakin door. Don't know if that's now or 10 years from now because they might be able to "kick the can down the road" yet again.

This thing has already transitioned from a health/medical crisis to a financial one a couple weeks ago. The financial part will be much worse than the viral part.

I would look to how long it took China and South Korea to peak and recover as a gauge.


IMO it's time to start looking at stocks that have been thrown out with the bath water, but we probably have another %7-%10 downside to go over over the next moth or two. The rally up after this is going to be fast and violent. Hold on to your hats, you don't miss that one even if you buy a little early it's OK. I generally hate stocks, but this is setting up to be a great buying opportunity, If I'm wrong you will be able to find me greeting folks at the local Walmart until I'm dead

I may really regret this but I bought a bunch of Royal Dutch Shell today. I'm looking to hold it long term and the dividend looked great. It's still dropping like a rock so I hope the company is still around in 10 years. If the dividend holds it'll pay for itself in about 5 years.

Bb

Did someone say just 1,800?

Phil

Good stuff folks. Big drop today. Should be many more down days before the infection numbers drop. Yet, odds are you can make money from anywhere here down. My guess.

19,191
As I type this ...

18,000s any day now. I started buying XLE energy sector spider options with a January 2022 expiration.

Catching a falling knife gives me the chills..... good luck men

I'm already regretting buying so much shell at once. Broker woke me up with.the call and put full pressure on while I was groggy. I should have bought some smaller chunks and DCA the way down. I'm still sitting on a decent amount of cash but I'm making smaller more frequent purchases and going into some other sectors with it.

Wake me up when McDonalds and coke dividends hit the 6% range.

We may see 12000 sooner than I thought. I bought oil and energy too early today but it's a long term thing I'm going for.

Bb

Hell, I stopped playing after the tech bubble burst in 2000. Only two stocks I wished I'd have kept is the railroads, had enough of UP and BNSF to have kept me well off had I kept it. Sold them at 35.

Phil

It's still headed down, down & DOWN. It maybe 1929 time. They sure are throwing a bunch of money at it.

My Dow 1830 prediction seems a bit optimistic today. It's doesn't feel like capitulation yet.

After Warren Buffet went into railroads all that seemed to take off.....funny how that works. You might think he has some stroke in DC to fuel his holdings.......surely not? LOL. Hmmm.

C-Bob - I think they have thrown too much too quick at it, and that fact is only fueling more panic, my guess. As to catching a falling knife, today's action sure seems to indicate this downward spiral is not near over yet.........time will tell.

I'm actually buying a little bit at a time each week. Those were my targets to throw larger amounts, but seeing what's going on leads me to believe I set the numbers for MSFT and AAPL too high for an all-in buy....

Wheres the best place to have an IRA to do low fee stock trades. I had a bunch in Edward Jones but their fees are way too high. After my trade this morning where I thought the fee was too high i find out there was another almost 2 percent commission on the trade.

I told them to just send me a check for the $35000 or so I have in a cash account so I can open a lower trade fee IEA somewhere else. They were not happy but then they never are when I do what's best for me. Good sign it's time to leave when your making poor decisions to try to keep others happy.

I realized part of why I went against my judgement this morning and bought so much at once was because I was trying to avoid multiple high trade fees and pressure from my broker to hurry and decide. I still want to pick up some other income stocks but I want to do it in smaller blocks on the way done.

I've typically just done funds so I'm a bit nee at this but I've been waiting for an opportunity. Still thinking the dow could hit 12000 but if the virus gets under control in the next few months I'm optimistic things could come a long ways back fast.

I want solid income stocks I can reinvest the dividends on for about 15 years and then take the dividends after retirement. Which ones should I be watching? Currently watching McDonald's, P&G, Coke, Boeing, capital one, and a few Reits.

Bb

If you have a long view I think you will do well. I'll hopefully be retired this decade so I'm a little more cautious.

Fidelity is a good place to be. But there are others. You have to pick your poison. P&G is pretty solid. Of the bunch you listed it is the only one I would buy stock in. I have mutual funds that hold it and the others. But not something I would buy stock in. But like anything else ask a 100 people and you will get 99 different answers.

Burleyboy
I have a Schwab account, Fidelity, and have had Dean Witter and Ameritrade.
Schwab is the best by far. Both Schwab and Fidelity offer no cost trades. Not really no cost but you can buy 10,000 share of MSFT for under a dollar.
Schwab just has a better screen, easier to read and trade. I have 5 different accounts with Schwab, 401K, QRP, Roth, and regular taxable accounts.

When I log in it gives me the total of all, plus or minus for each time I log in, and profit or loss for each position. Plus with the right software I can trade both pre and after market.
Both offer stocks, mutual funds, and ETF's. The nice thing about ETF's is that you can sell any time during the day or have a stop in that takes you out of the position and you don't have to wait for the market close like mutual funds.

Don't DCA with ETF's

It is impossible to predict the absolute bottom or the duration, but I'd say we are near the bottom now. Valuations are now reasonable, so on a fundamental judgement, I believe it won't go much lower. BUT, panic selling can always rear its ugly head and the bottom may become bottomless assuming the worst in fear.

I've been metering cash back into the market over the past 2 weeks about $1,000-2,000/day, but when the DOW plummeted below 20,000 today, I bought about $9,000 in Caterpillar, Berkshire Hathaway B, and a mutual fund. I'll continue doing this.

The end of this week and next week will be interesting as more infections are counted and the chaos grows.

Guys, you are looking at this totally wrong. I will attempt to paint a picture here, with words, where you can see and understand the dire situation the legs of commerce are in.

You guys are looking for low valuations in a normal working environment (no legs of the 4 leg stool are broke), when “all 4 legs of commerce are functioning”, while you ignore the fact that all 4 legs of the stool are broke presently.

Truth is, every leg of commerce has a compound fracture presently.

Four legged stool of commerce:

1st leg – Retail customer
2nd leg – Storefront
3rd leg – Wholesaler
4th leg – Manufacturer (China-TREASONOUS)

The retail customers are losing their jobs, and some will be staring at BK.

The storefronts have been forced closed, and are staring at BK, and never to re-open.

The wholesalers are being forced close from ZERO inventory turnover, and ZERO orders, because the 1ST and 2ND legs are dead in the water, and they too are looking at BK, and never to re-open.

The manufacturers are being forced close in the USA from ZERO inventory turnover, and ZERO orders, and the ones in CHINA will have no orders, because the 1ST and 2ND and 3RD legs are dead in the water, and the manufacturers, too, are looking at BK, and who knows if they re-open.

In the above picture, how can anyone tell them self, that situation has the ability to produce profit, much less any revenue at all? BK ZEROS out your stock certificate FIRST.

A 30 day shutdown will BK over 50% of small businesses. Poof, gone forever.

And “if” “any of the lower 3 legs: 2,3,4, go to the government trough, that debt will hinder their ability to turn the correct margins in the future, to allow growth, and hire back unemployed workers.

It truly is “that” bad, and I cannot believe it hasn’t cascaded down yet, with the facts above known by everyone in business, and the financial markets.

And when it comes to the edge of the cliff, and falls over, it will not be pretty….at all.

You are looking at a picture of Financial Armageddon above. The artist just hasn’t put his name on it……yet.

If it were me, I would get out before you don’t have anything at all to survive with, through this Dark Age we are facing. It is truly uncharted waters for all 4 legs being destroyed.

I got out on the 17TH, when my position jumped back up 10%, because I know the above picture as facts, and so do YOU GUYS…now. You don’t fix that kind of destruction “overnight”, and that is why I finally bailed, because “numbers” do not lie. Math is math, and the numbers will not be making the math look good for a long time.

Quick analogy for you:

You have a 3 foot stick of pipe in your hand with flowing water. In one end, and out the other. The water represents commerce taking place. When the government screwed a cap on the end where water was coming out (Store front), what did that do to the “whole” chain of commerce?

It shut it completely down, right?

And now the government has screwed a cap on the other end, with a nipple, and they have attached an air hose, and are BLOWING MONEY into the pipe, as fast as they can, with no where for it to go (capped at both ends now-thus creating artificial commerce), because everything is at a dead stand still.

When the pipe gets to bursting pressure, what will your money be worth when it blows?

The bell just rang for class to end, and when the bell rings the markets open today, what will you do, now that you have a better picture?

I know business. I’m an ex C-Level executive, and have many C-Level friends who highly regard my business acumen. Hopefully I just proved it for you guys with the above.

Good luck guys, and may God watch over you, and your families.

Copyright © 2020 ElkSlayer91 All Rights Reserved.

I'm not a stock investor type but I have a couple possibly stupid questions.

Are there any smart money types predicting a possible "bounce back" timeline based on a worse case scenario picture?

I am aware there is little to find comparable with the following but I'm search for a comparison and coming up empty.
Is there anything here that may end up similar?
Trying to compare the Depression era to a World wide pandemic has got to be like comparing apples to semi-trucks but it's new turf we're tilling here and I'm just attempting to get my head wrapped around this stock market picture...



Wall Street lore and historical charts indicate that it took 25 years to recover from the stock market crash of 1929. However, some modern analysts dispute that view. In fact, the recovery from the low point, though not a steady climb, offered investors opportunities to make money and even recoup their losses from the crash much sooner than the 25-year mark.

Changes in Dow
The Dow Jones industrial average in 1929 did not maintain static membership. Some stocks were taken out of the average, and others were added. When the Dow reached its old peak 25 years later, it did so with different stocks than were in it during the crash. This means a comparison of Dow levels in 1929 and 25 years later is an apples-to-oranges comparison.

Individual Stocks
Some individual stocks recovered in four years, according to website Seeking Alpha. For example, Dow Chemical had recovered to the break-even point by 1933. Honeywell and 3M Recovered by 1936. The average time for stocks to recover was 12 years. While this certainly means some took longer, others took much less time.

Overall Market
Mark Hulbert, writing for "The New York Times," suggests that an investor could have fully recovered from the 1929 crash in four-and-one-half years. He bases his claim on the fact that deflation and inflation haven't been figured in to true stock values from the period, and the fact that dividends paid an average of 14 percent. In addition, he points out that the Dow is not the entire market, and that the broader market had some quick-recovery stocks in it.

Revival vs. Recovery
Though the market did not fully recover in 1930, it did go through a series of rallies and drops as it tried to mount a revival. New York Stock Exchange stocks recovered 73 percent of their losses in 1930. Each rally was met by a disappointing drop, but the market never went back to its 1929 state of chaos and panic.

Wow. Elk91-

That is bleak indeed! If this is where we are headed no doubt God help us all.

Trust me when I tell you, I did not enjoy writing it one damn bit. I've been watching so many of you guys here not use sound judgement, to factor in the true destruction of the commerce engine. I could not just sit back and watch, when I have the skillset to possibly help open your eyes.

The present condition of the commerce engine is a cracked block, broke crank, bent rods, and shattered pistons. (4 legs of the stool)

That is what a blown up race car engine looks like, with white milky oil leaking out of the drain pan, where a few rods tore through.

Yeah, it truly is "that" bad.

The government needs to turn 180*, and open the doors of commerce back up, and let the virus run its course, so herd immunity can start. You only get saved by building anti-bodies, or vaccine. There has never been a vaccine invented for a Corona virus, plus, it would take 3-5 years to inoculate 200 MIL citizens. You can't keep the economy shut for 3-5 years. 30 days alone will kill it.

The economy is on a ventilator right now as you read this, and only 50% of people come off alive.

I went by the bank yesterday before closing. I won't print what I found out there. I'll just say I had to race to another location before they closed, to conduct my transaction.

You lost your credibility when you said the virus will be stopped by sitting down to take a scheit.

91 - I agree about how this will have to take its course. Talk right now of some existing drugs having promise to treat it. Vaccine is a long term solution no doubt.

You're a baldfaced lying troll. I never said it would "stop" it. I said it would stop it from raging like a wildfire across the country like it did in China, and Italy. And those numbers still support that, you trolling fool.

Yeah no kidding. Looks like the paranoid delusional poster, who repeatedly gets kicked off Internet forums is striving to ruin another thread. Just wait till the delusions of grandeur kick in with some professional victimhood, as he perseverates on how everyone is trolling him.

3-2-1....

It's grim, all the markets are low.

End of April/early May.................

Unless you can pick the top or nearly the top of the market, it doesn't do any good to buy stocks for capital appreciation - you're just gonna lose you azz again in the next downturn.

It's been a constant cycle of pump, dump and the big players buying up assets at pennies on the dollar.

And why cannot storefronts and warehouses reopen? Go away dude, you haven’t a clue what you speak of. Wow.

WOW are you really that retarded? We see why you are an EX C-Level executive. CRO isn't in demand!

Why has road construction, in front of storefronts, slowed foot traffic enough to force businesses to close their doors across the past several decades?

If you are incapable of understanding "basic" economic principles, which you have clearly demonstrated above, it is not my job to teach you.

I do have a "clue" of what I speak, and my article "proves" it beyond a shadow of a doubt.....to intelligent business minds.

Risk Officer has absolutely nothing to do with the article written. It is all about needing cashflow to keep the doors open, at every point in the channel.

You don't have a clue.

And you aren't even intelligent enough to figure out why an intelligent C-Level executive becomes an Ex C-Level executive. That fact alone PROVES you are woefully incapable of discussing the topic at hand.

A realtor friend asked me early last fall what I was investing in since I pretty much quit buying rental homes. I told him I was just trying to pay off debts and build up some cash so I could pick up some deals next time it slowed down. He said do really think this beast of an economy could be slowed down much. I just said that the markets always correct at some point and I want to have some cash ready next time it does.

I only had about 60k sitting in my investment fund I planned to use in a downtown. I was hoping to have more but paid off the house first. I've been patiently waiting for this opportunity but I'm still pretty nervous about buying anything because it's hard to gauge how bad things might get.

If it's real bad long term I'll be screwed like everyone else. If it turns around pretty quick and gets working again I'll hopefully come out with some income stocks at a deal.

Bb

I wasn't referring to a Risk Officer, More like Chief Retard Officer! But please carry on and enlighten all of us. I am laughing.

Looks like the trend is down......might be weeks before the virus infections go down........

I'll take a wild guess go down another 30 per cent.

I see no reason why we won’t follow other past crashes. More to come no doubt.

https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2017/0...-coming-in-next/?slreturn=20200222072211

Possibly tomorrow. Futures are just about there now.

I like predictions... takes balls to make a predictions, I will predict DOW 8000 before it;s over

My guess is about 13,000 for the Dow. But any guess is worth about the same as a wooden nickel.

The stall alarm is going off, and this economy is ONE (1) knot short of going into an unrecoverable nose dive, and there is not enough altitude to pull it out of the dive.

Plane (Economy) meet ground.

The descriptive article I wrote a few days back on the 19 TH, is starting to be printed by some of the greatest minds in the country, as they describe the exact same scenario I did and who are also screaming from the top of the mountains to cut the crap out, and send the people back to work.

Below is one printed yesterday by Karl Denninger, who draws the picture in greater detail than I wrote, and he has a link to a The Wall Street Journal article in his article describing the same:

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=238575

As to the idiots trolling me in this thread, and on this site, the article at the link above and the Wall Street Journal’s article, is solid proof I’m right.

Now, go pound sand you ignorant low I.Q. mentally deranged fools, because it’s obvious to an intelligent person, you trolls are nothing but broke dics with no money of any significance in the market anyway, and the fact none of you can pen a detailed article addressing this situation, like I have, to show you have the intelligence to understand this scenario, and are visionary enough to see/understand the long term ramifications resulting from this Financial Armageddon, for years/decades to come, proves it.

Simply put, you are a deranged, hateful prick.

If the virus dries up in the summer the market could steadily climb again, if not it could be prolonged enough to severely cripple the whole economy with a recession and market drop of more than 50%

Sputz,

We all understand, you’re deep into the market and leverage hard. This derailment is gonna hurt you. Got it.

Thankfully, I’m liquid enough that I’m happy to hire you as my landscaper for a year until you can get yourself upright.

You’re welcome...😎

The stock market looks like a basket case. It's hard to even look at the daily graphs.

I think we may see this sooner than this summer.

I took the time to pen an in depth article to help people here. That is not the action or definition of a deranged and hateful prick.

The definition of a TROLL, could easily be said to be a deranged and hateful pric, being they are mentally sick.......which you so eloquently prove beyond a shadow of doubt..

Amen

you two were meant for eachother.

Where's your 2,000 word "in depth" article to prove you're not the dumbazz you display here?

Asking for a friend......

P.S. I seen that thread you started concerning exponential growth concerning the virus. You thought you could make yourself look smart [cough]. You succeeded in making yourself look the dumbazz you truly are, being you left out critical information. Thanks for proving what I already knew, you're not just a troll,,,,,,you're a major dumbazz too.

Another post filled with hate and anger.

I still haven't seen anything constructive or positive from you on this forum.

I stated in my article I'm out of the market now. Only a Sputz would be so dumb to write what you just did.

Go build your window unit freezer.....you broke dic.

I predicted 19000 before they did shut downs, now it could go as low as 17k

I really like and hate the fire sometimes.
I just don't know enough about the stock market to open my mouth and dig a hole I can't get out of. But in times like these, I do like to read up on it and hear different opinions from people that are involved and not just know it alls.
Would like to see actual discussions instead of name calling.
Carry on!

Trolls never see anything positive. They post lies, like you just did, so they can keep trolling the site they post on.

Thanks for confirming you're nothing but a commie troll.

and..... still not constructive or positive. You keep making my point.

You truly are one mentally sick sunufabitch.

You attacked me here tonight, and have the gal to label me as not being positive, when I provided an additional link for the people here to go read, to become more abreast of the dire situation, and every single post you've made here tonight is a trolling post.

Like I said, you are mentally sick, and your very own posts prove it beyond a shadow of doubt.

And to further prove you're an idiot, you can claim:


all you want. I have a thread in the second amendment forum that has quite a few views that further proves you're a trolling dumbazz.

The title is, "The Second Amendment Broken Down"....written in 2017.

https://www.24hourcampfire.com/ubbt...econd-amendment-broken-down#Post12150689

*yawn* More of the same: attacks...nothing positive or constructive.

I'm going to join my wife in bed. I really hope this is not your entire life, attacking people on the internet, with no real value to add.

But I am not hopeful!

'Nite!

You just keep telling yourself that. Intelligent people know the truth here, who read my posts when I'm not having to deal with trolls like you.

Only a trolling fool would've just claimed I contribute nothing, after I gave a link to a very positive article I wrote.

It solidifies how truly mentally sick you are.

Seems like a good prediction.

Depending on how long this last of course.

Personally I don't understand why people start freaking out then the markets drop, If you needed that money you shouldn't have invested it. Invest what you can afford to tie up. If one does that they can ride out any and all market drops. History has proven that the markets always comeback. I see times like this as a time to invest more money, but again if you can afford to tie up that money.

I also recall someone on here telling me that rental properties aren't worth the hassles. Well My rents haven't gone down!

whatever government bailout is in the works being stalled while the Dems and Repubs fight it out isn't going to help

This^^

He never has recovered from that moment when he was thirteen and discovered he could think and the first thing he thought was he was the first human to ever do so.

After '29 it took 20 years to match the high. After 1965, it took 30 years to hit 7,880 again. After 1999 it took 14 years. People freak because they'd like to make up what they lost before they need it. How'd you like to have retired in January thinking you were doing good enough with a million or 2 only to wake up in March to see you've lost a third of that nest egg? And that even if you never spent another dime, it would take 20-30 years to get it back?

Bloomberg financial reported today that during the last 7 trading days short sellers profited over $50 BILLION.

Good stuff. Folks I appreciate Everyone’s opinion and input here. Interesting discussion and I view all to have merit and respect all who have replied. Appreciate all on the site to try keeping things civil and not attacking others. Sorry but I see no reason why peace cannot be had by all. I understand some are invested all in and stressed.

I firmly believe this virus will be dealt with and sooner than later. Hope I’m right. I may be wrong. I can see worst case that a scenario like Elk91 playing out. If the virus lingers and half our country shut down to control it, no doubt the downturn in our market and the economy will linger. That said currently people are talking right now that discussions may be underway to dial things back. Opening up some of the economy depending on specific locations infection numbers.

Time will tell. We all want a healthy strong economy and stock market. I’m confident time will sort this out. Perhaps much better and sooner than some historic times like the Great Depression. Emotions have understandably gone high but also may have overshot what the future will show how this plays out. Again may. Perhaps not. We will see. Thanks everyone for participating. Let’s all be nice to everyone. Thanks.

The beauty of rentals is you can index rents to inflation. Also the old rules of supply and demand still apply.
Wasn't long ago a poster was advocating mortgaging your home in order to have money for the market..... that advice didn't age well
Oh and that same poster said the other day he was putting off buying a new car due to current events... hahahahaha

Then you were a fool to be invested in volatile stocks at retirement. And a bigger fool to not sell in Feb when the Chinese economy went in the toilet.

Even a dumbass broke dick like me knows retirement is the time for low yield, safe investments.

Volatile stocks and fast growth funds are for the young investor with lots of time to recover losses. And for the unabashedly greedy.

Any student of history knows what goes up must come down.

Young as in under 30? Really?
LOL!

What will you do when half your tenants get laid off?

Tenants? Under thirty?

WTF are you talking about?

Elkslayer,

The federal government is sending a helicopter to your home to pick you up and take you directly to the White House so that you can advise the President on how to save the nation. They have heard of the vast knowledge that you have acquired as a c-level executive and are in awe of what you are posting on the internet.

Please dress in your best attire and be prepared to stay a few weeks. Your nation needs you............

What you appear to be saying is that anyone over 30 is a fool to invest in stocks. Are you serious?

Next paragraph (New paragraphs usually indicate the beginning of new trains of thought) - What are you going to do when your tenants default on their leases?

Got some AAPL at 220 today, sold most at 224

I'm almost to the point of starting to put my money back in. one more week...

Couple that with "retirement is the time for low yield safe investments."

If you want my definition of "lots of time to recover losses", that would be ten to fifteen years before retirement. Age 50 to 55. That is about typical recovery time for modern recessions.

I was taught early: Gamble what you can afford to lose, because there is a good chance you will.

And I still have no idea what you are talking about tenants. I sure as hell do not own any rental properties.

I would guess that someone who does, then has disposable assets to get him through times of famine and pestilence.

I think very few of the billionaires in the world got that way by holding onto stock in a plummeting market. They got that way by buying low and selling high.

Dead cat bounce?

The only thing I remember from Finance 101--------"Cash is King"

Idaho_Shooter got it right!

He is talking about me. Yet I have been through the 2008 crash and well never lost a rent payment yet. If you screen your tenants you can figure out pretty easy who will and who won't pay. My first tenant showed up at my property in 2005 in a 1990-93? Honda Civic. He and his wife both had jobs at large established businesses. Ran a credit check on them both great credit. Paid for a background check on them. Clean there as well. Never a single problem. I did have one issue that I won't call a problem. I bought a house with an existing tenant in there. I carried out the remaining lease with her. She was late on two payments. She paid me the rent plus the late fee the first time. I told her I don't need the late fee, clearly she wasn't in a good place and me collecting the late fee isn't going to help her or me in the long run. She was late again one other time and I told her pay me as soon as you can. Shortly after I hired a Property management company as I was away they kicked her out after about 6 months for complaints by the neighbor. Other than that no problems and no drama. But I do my due diligence and I screen my tenants.

I bought almost $25,000 of Royal Dutch Shell b stock last Wednesday at $21.80 a share. I wanted to hold it like 15 years and reinvest the dividends. I was worried afterwards because it dropped to about $19.50 that same day. Today its $30.40 a share. Do I sell and make a quick $9,000 or stay with the plan?

I tried to buy Boeing that day at $89 too but my broker talked me out of it. Maybe it'll all hit new lows tomorrow. These wild swings tempt me to day trade a little.

Bb

MY Guess.........anything you buy here..........and hold, will be profits....in the not too distant future.........if it's a quality company / investment.

But, it May be a 'Sucker's Rally' and we may test new lows........this 'bear market' might last awhile you never know. The only real drivers, IMHO, is the Covid-19, and the fact that a bubble was blown into the stratosphere for 11 years.......almost unprecedented. Obama Financial Engineering, immediately followed by REAL Growth in GDP, Employment numbers, etc. under President Trump. This pandemic will end......what else happens or next is anyone's guess. That said, Warren Buffet said, don't bet against America.....and I have always said, Don't bet against Trump.

Given a 2nd term, America stands to do more winning, if I had to place my bet.

I would bail out now. O&G is the worst place to be in the market now.

Hang in there BB.

And get a new Broker. That Boeing stock is worth almost twice that today! I wasn't trading the last few days, but If I'd have seen Boeing under $100, I would have bought.

I have picked up some O&G on the drop (OXY, MRO, etc.) and will hold 'em. They'll pay off.

Drop your broker. Boeing at $89? Thats a no brainer.If a broker talked you out of Boeing at $89 schitcan him. Thats a fuggin crime!!! Ive only lost money with brokers. You're capable of doing it yourself. I picked up a 1000 shares of Boeing last week and and 2000 of Alaska, clr and Exxon. I cashed out today. I take my profits and sell and slowly invest in established dividend stocks, Id sell in a minute if up over 30 per cent in this market. Reassess market and once it drops re invest. Im in short term on energy related stocks in this economy. Once this economy is stabilized picking up some energy stock with dividend for the long term.I have picked up and have held Exxon, Alaskan air and Boeing for the long term. Hope to pick up more on big drops.

BTW Im not an expert. That Boeing advice was really stupid IMO

Sure you can make some money on O&G but why? The O&G market sucks, and there are so many solid healthy companies in other sectors to invest in. To each their own for sure. But O&G is a bad place to be.

I hear ya, Energy stocks are a small part of my portfolio at this point. I can't help but think there will be upside at the prices I'm in at.

I hate to sell anything at a loss.

A dangerous play that may pay off well is CHK. They once had their sh_t together and I made a little money off them. I got out thank god. But they are so depressed that even a little run could give a possible nice profit without a big investment. I AM NOT RECOMMENDING CHK!

Roger that... Chapter 11 isn't out of the question...


https://seekingalpha.com/article/4333692-chesapeake-energy-finally-be-headed-ch-11-bankruptcy

Yes more than likely.

OXY is up almost 22%, MRO up 12% in the first three hours of trading this morning.

This is why everyone needs to do their own homework.

I bailed today. I set an exit point of $33.50 and when it hit that I told the broker to sell. By the time he put the order in it had bumped down to $32.61. If I could have pulled the trigger myself I would have made about another $1000 on my 1102 shares of RDSb. I am pretty excited that I did net a bit over $11,000 in a week on one trade.

Edward Jones is not the place to trade stocks it cost me about $450 to buy those shares and $500 to sell. Although I was looking at Exxon originally and the broker suggested I look at shell too. I spent a week or more studying shell then waited for that down day last week and jumped in.

I need to set up an account somewhere with cheap trades that I can control. I hate making decisions based on high commissions and then waiting for someone else to put my orders in at these volatile times.

I've been playing a bit with some small money in Robinhood since yesterday. Free, almost instant traded but they don't do IRAs. Bought and sold a few already and I've got 12% more than I put in yesterday now. If anyone wants a free stock send me your cell number and I'll have Robinhood text you a link to sign up. We'll each get a free stock. I've found doing small trades there to be good learning.

I think I'm going to request most of my funds from ed Jones and get a cheaper ira started. I'll be out for about a week waiting for the check etc so maybe I'll do it in phases. I want to be ready for the next big panic sell off that I think still might happen but I'm new at this.

Bb

Fabulous profit there, BB. Good for you!
But no way in hell I'd pay those broker premiums. Good lord.

Glad I bought GE at 5.95

I know, I need to get my money out of there. My wife had an IRA there and was in a bunch of different American funds that she had already paid the 5.75% commission on so we left that money there. I had a smaller 401 from a past job that the broker talked me into rolling into another ira there. I mostly keep the small one parked in money markets.

They told me their trade fees were $50 on that size trade which I thought was high. Then when I did it I found there was an additional 1.8% commission. They don't like to mess with individual trades they like to push mutual funds with the 5.75% load/commission.

These high fees screw with your strategy. I wanted to pull the roughly $200,000 we have in American funds the day it first started to drop. Then they told us we'd have to pay 5.75% to get back into funds later so we stayed. If it was no load I would have parked them in s money market that day.

I've been warning my wife since middle of Jan we'd see a drop when the virus got here. Facing high commissions clouds my judgment. I almost didn't sell my stock today because of the commission. I might regret selling it later but today I'm just happy to make 11k. Especially since no one at my house is working now.

Bb

It is mooning at the bell.

I'm going to open a fidelity IRA unless there's something better and transfer my money from ed jones.

Bb

I'm not sure Fidelity trades like a regular brokerage with a 401k. I'm looking at TD Ameritrade for a couple of IRA owned LLC's .

They do with Brokeragelink. There are some limitations like no shorts, options, etc. ad some limits on what can be traded, but overall it is pretty good.

I think I've narrowed it down to fidelity or Schwab. Still leaning fidelity but I can't get anyone on the phone at either. They're both a bit busy these days.

Bb

TDAmeritrade IT dept. just screwed up their platform 2 weeks ago when they completely altered the buy/sell order system.

It used to be it was tucked away at the bottom, and when you clicked to bring it up, it’d cover the bottom 25% of the page, and you could still have your watchlist to watch everything, buy/ask prices current stock prices, hi/lo, vol.

Now, when you click to fill an order, it takes you to a complete separate page to fill, where you can NOT watch the current live numbers on your watch lists, so it forces you to trade in the blind. It is completely worthless.

The only way to see live, is pull up a separate browser from a site where you can watch the live pricing, and send your order when you see it is where you want it.

I can’t believe they screwed it up. I think they did it on purpose to create some type of advantage for them. Why else would you create such a useless piece of……

SO we going to keep going up or is this a temporary bubble? I'm really Regretting not buying when it was low 18s

I talked to Fidelity yesterday after about a 15-minute wait.

That is not the way it is working for me. Perhaps you have the extra special "Ex C-suite" interface.

They know......

That works as long as they have bottom feeder money coming in. That’s about to stop.

My Snapticket trade portal is still at the bottom.....

TD Ameritrade is being bought by Schwab.

https://www.aboutschwab.com/announcement

haha..... That is half the story but congratulations. I don't day trade, and I never said you can't make money in O&G. You can make money in any sector of the market. Some you have to risk a lot to do so, some you don't. Again pick your own poison.

go with td ameritrade for more active trading.I have both

I looked at TD but since they're being bought by Schwab I figured I'd just go with Schwab if I don't do fidelity.

I held on to my oxy. My Boeing, Merck ,Alaska is down today and bought up more when it hit bottom today.

Now down but not concerned. Trying to accumulate good dividend stocks for long term

Did well on opgn, Amgen last few days and up today.

Hoping for more big corrections.

I waited 20 min to contact td ameritrade yesterday. Ive been trying to get hold of fidelity past few days. On phone over 2 hours and they never picked up and IM chat is over 3 hours..Their site has been having some issues due to volume. Not impressed with that. They have a good reputation for long term investing though.

go schwab

Many company's employees had to be sent home impacting staffing for phones.

I know many people working at home now because of the virus with company laptops and cell phones.

I do too. My wife just got 2000 international contractors on line from their homes.
Lotsa companies are having issues getting it done domestically.

Thanks for the info sir.

Anyone else using Vanguard brokerage account?

Looks like we may have yet to see a bottom.......the longer this Covid goes, the more uncertainty can be created.......time will tell. Based on 2008, there may be a few dips over the coming months if there is any correlation. All interesting to watch.

When they stop counting the dead, we will see the bottom.

We hit bear market and recession criteria, it takes a while for things to flush out. I think this will be a tough a month, but I think we will only have one or two hard months to go. I'll watch and see if we hold at the March lows or go lower. I think we will go lower. I won't argue that within a few months will see the best values in the decade. It will recover in a few years. It's not time to go in big yet, but we are getting closer. Capitulation will be a ugly day, really ugly.

I think you are 100% correct sir.

10 Million now unemployed (Guaranteed DEPRESSION has been stated) and the five largest states don't have the money to cover it.......and we haven't even had the second DOWN cycle in the stock market, which is always worse.

Uncharted waters.........and the boat anchor hasn't hit bottom yet, and once it does, who knows how long it will drag across the bottom until it grabs and stops the boat from drifting.

The pain is not over that's for sure, people will continue being laid off, the virus will be stopped, but how much economic damage will have been done...is still being processed........it's a moving target.

Best case scenario, they get some success with drug treatments before the vaccine, combined with mitigation efforts flattening the curve. THEN, folks in SOME locations may be going back to work, and likely wearing masks. This situation will not be resolved soon....soon enough.

I am confident America will find it's way out of this.........but we have to remember what we face, so are all the other nations impacted, most of the world. The market will find a bottom, perhaps this year.

Now about all that stuff in the stores and online........Made in China

i called the 18k false bottom a few weeks ago and have adjusted that to high 4 digits. too much uncharted waters. we got a long row to hoe yet. if we are disrupted for 6 months then 6-12 months after that we will still be reeling. opportunists and day traders will skew things unnaturally but jobs numbers, business earnings and consumer confidence are what really drives the market long term. all are in the schitter for the forseeable future. i will be happy with my largest holdings being MM for a while.

remember BTO's most famous song...

I thought all along 18 was a great entry point.......this virus may not be going away soon enough........but very encouraging news on turning the corner perhaps in the coming weeks. I agree.........many many reports to be coming on earnings, job losses, etc. and they are unknown. Yes, consumer and investor confidence and sentiment will pave the way........

The market - is it trying to find a floor here? One might speculate.....but we will not know until weeks or months pass, looking back.

So because these threads get buried...an update for those who followed this thread, after one month of April trading my $49K Ameritrade acct. showed $65K at the closing bell today.

Rolled the dice with Permian-basin CDEV at .25 a share and a few other solid companies also distressed by Covid, Russia/Saudi, etc.
OIL, baby.

It's up, it's down. It's like a prize fight. But ya gotta get in the ring!

Out state economist projected 10% unemployment through 2021 easing in 2022. We have some rough sledding ahead for 18-24 months. I imagine we are at 20% unemployment today as a wild guess. S&P probably has a 18-22 PE ratio, which is pretty high in my opinion.

I am 50% in AMZN and 40% in GOOG.

Inflation?
Bring it on.

Absolutely SN. We're in for tough times.
There is no rhyme or reason to much of this, but while this iron is hot its getting thoroughly beaten.

It's also one reason that I'm quickly in and out of stocks that I really want to hold long term. Right now there isn't much point in holding what will be right back down in a week. Too much meat left on the bone.

Apache 22% today...

Dow Jones has made back half of the drop from the high.

I’ve said it before. This chinaflu will end, Trump gets re-elected, and the market roars.

Dow will be 35K by Christmas. Book it.

The DOW today stands almost exactly where it was 12 months ago.

Think about that........

Which Christmas, Bender ?

Was on a conference call this morn with some so called experts from a major investment firm.
They were slightly bullish. They think the Dow will completely recover in 12-18 months. Actually it’s done 50% of that already.
Some stocks, hospitality, airlines as examples will struggle for longer time.

Barring a resurgence of Co-19, we’ve seen the bottom. If Trump isn’t re-elected, gtfo for a while.

I’ll be curious to see what happens after the next earnings come out. I think some of what we’re seeing right now is the irrational exuberance of a mild bull market. I don’t think the bears are out of the woods yet...

I ve made a killing in oil related stocks the past week. Enough to pay for a new truck. Hope it keeps up

APA has been very good to me.

good show

My reply would’ve been:

“Guys, that is fantastic news to hear. Listen, we want to go after money on the sidelines right now, and we feel people are eager to jump back in, so would it be asking too much for you guys to produce some charts for us, that shows the last time we had a minimum drop of 4.8% in GDP with no fewer than 26+MIL on unemployment produce the 12-18 month turnaround you just described, so we can utilize those charts?”

Oh…to hear the dead silence on the other end….would have been gold….

I think you underestimate the American spirit under Trump.

My reply would’ve been:

“Guys, that is fantastic news to hear. Listen, we want to go after money on the sidelines right now, and we feel people are eager to jump back in, so would it be asking too much for you guys to produce some charts for us, that shows the last time we had a minimum drop of 4.8% in GDP with no fewer than 26+MIL on unemployment produce the 12-18 month turnaround you just described, so we can utilize those charts?”

Oh…to hear the dead silence on the other end….would have been gold….

I’m not saying they’re right, and I’m less bullish.
I would expect their answer to your question to be, “under those conditions you mention, the DOW is up roughly 6000 points since its bottom 4-5 weeks ago, and that about 30%.”

It is "impossible" to underestimate the "cold hard facts", the numbers. Spirit and rah rahs with signs can only push a market so far....when tens of millions of people, and counting, are unemployed.

Once the market realizes the numbers are "real", you better hope you're not holding a bad hand when the market opens 20-25 % below your stop, and drops another 10% before your position is picked up by a buyer....if there are any buyers.

Glad you made some quick money. I just hope you don't get caught in a corner when the market realizes, "OK, this is real"....like when the REPO starts doling out several more TRILLIONS, to purchase bad paper, to keep this Ponzi scheme afloat.

There's always a "wall".....

Goodyear Tire and Rubber (Lawton) has started building one code tire and is selling rubber to other industries. They will start another code next week. Their stock is up 30% from this past month...

My second reply to them would be:

A good engine always melts the pistons when entering the trap…not before.

Don’t tell me this economic engine can win a championship and is producing the needed horsepower, when it is melting pistons (26+ MIL UI / Negative GDP ) before entering the trap.

The fact they can’t understand an analogy like above, is the same reason those “book smart financial yuppies” only repeat to their clients what their bosses tell them in sales meetings…they haven’t the slightest clue of how the real world works, and they have never, and will never, tell a client to bail from the market in times like we are facing, for the same reasons politicians will never vote for term limits….their job.

And there’s never just “one” bottom in a Depression. Where do you think the term “dead cat bounce” originated from?….is what I’d mumble and close with to them.

Yep, an engine melting pistons is the one perfect analogy.

We're witnessing genius un action, boys!!

Bitcoin is going insane.... INSANE !!

Also bought in to a deal with Tikka Tiwari on a 5 coins for 5 Million $ dollar deal and am up 1300 % in 2 weeks. Palm Beach research.

The next one.

Ahhhh, yes !
Like the sign above the bar, “free beer tomorrow “.

Grins

i will keep my hard earned gains in cash for now. my regular investments are going into s&p though. we have not seen the earnings for 2nd and 3rd quarter yet.

Been watching several stocks over that past couple of months myself. I decided to buy Carnival Cruise Lines when it got down to 8 bucks and its close to 16 now I think. Marothon Oil and Haliburton have nearly if not already doubled since their lows a month or so ago. Some of the pharma's have done well. I haven't made a killing but I did invest 15k into CCL, MRNA and Pfizer and I'm up to 32K I believe in just a few weeks.

Its better to complain, hide in your closet from the Chinese virus, let your wife watch the hallmark channel, keep your money in the bank at .5 per cent interest or bury all your savings in the back yard in mason jars and talk about where to buy more ammo.

Im out of market for most part today excepts for a few stocks I picked up at 90 per cent below their highs, after this hot month and will reinvest when the bargains appear again. Cant believe a lot of people didn't jump in after the March crash at least temporarily.

The stock market is the only place where people run away from a sale...

Yessir.

Excuse me sir, but would you like some free money?

Oh, no thank you.

It was all golden.

Then you brought back the ghost of okok....

Another update for those who've watched this thread....
As of today (and since March with my first official trade) I'm up just about $50K from my $65K account = $115K.

Thanks in part to this little guy--but avoid oil at all cost!



Edit...just went to $1.61...grin.

Nice work...!

The returns have been insane! When Trump and his bro at the Fed announced they were going to pump $7 trillion into the market to fight the common cold well.... if you didn't know to get in and grab a piece of that then too bad.

It's not too late though. Trump knows the power of QE, he's been using it even before all this fake virus crap, as the economy strengthened so I don't see him letting off it any time soon. So long as Trump keeps printing, the market is risk free. If he gets re-elected, we'll easily see DOW 50k.

I put some spare cash into GUSH,Alaska Air, and Carvana when the market was at its worst. Now if I can just go ahead and sell. That's my problem, I can pick a winner but I have trouble selling after a big gain. I doubled my money on 200 shares of Diamond Offshore and hung on to it. Now they're in bankruptcy.

I already did................... but I missed by a month!

.

1. Trump was never President before.
2. The heater was never turned on for the U.S. economy to flourish like this before. It took multiple points of stimulation, even before this rebound.

Your post nailed it! No prior president has even come close to smashing the gas pedal on the "free" market economy like Trump!

2X the largest GOVERNMENT relief package EVER signed into law and that doesn't count the ADDITIONAL $5 trillion printed and pumped into the economy... all in a matter of a few weeks. EPIC recovery the likes of which mankind has never seen before. H3ll... even Trump keeps inadvertently calling "Billion" when it stars with a "T"!

That's decisive leadership!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vq2DrA56HHs

So.... many thanks, MCH, you're misguided 2020 advice helped keep me determined and focused over the last few years; finally cashed out of my PR (Permian Resources) investment today with my 18 bagger.
Goal was 1/3 mill, but I settled at $300k. Long live oil and gas!

And here we are at 35k...

And when is ya'll's food shortage going to hit?

LOL

Jeff_O needs a hug, get on it.

Indeed...

BUT do see that as a sustainable number?

Job market is strong, CPI down, personal expenses index supposedly down. Should be positives for markets. FED interest rates, who knows?

Oil Companies’ long range planning is seeing 3%\year demand growth.

Buffet and Goldman Sachs saying that Fitchs’ recent downgrade won’t amount to much at all but both agree that earnings overall will tend to be less in the future.

Idiots of the fire predicted a complete collapse of the U.S. by now.

LOL

Yeah, things are going swell guys lmao. WTF

I get the liberals on here are retarded, but some of you who are on the right are being misled

$10 gas and NWO, any of you hillbillies remember those predictions?

No prediction but the market feels like it's at a peak to me. Holding out in cash (personal non-retirement investing) for a while. 401(k) is just slightly more conservative with less growth funds but have a 10 year horizon with it.

What does Q say?

Stick your head back in your vagina where it will do the most good.

Lol.

Not sure, but they are retarded as well lol

Lol

Do nothing old fire fudds predictions hit less often than jagoff and Q. Which is never.


LOL

Local gun shop said sales are way down. The local silver and gold shop said they have more sellers than buyers lately because people are out of money. My friend who sells cars at the Toyota, jeep, Chrysler, ram dealership said their average sales price last month was down 10%.

I think Wall Street is disconnected from main street. Consumer debt and credit card debt are way up and savings rates are way down. The big leftist investor types are flush with cash though and still driving the stock market. Meanwhile average people are just trying to put gas in their cars and feed their kids.

Bb

That is EXACTLY RIGHT.

There is real money to be made on every business that implodes.

Yellow is the prefect example.

Money made from the rape and pillage mindset... with ZERO concern for the loss of jobs and livelihoods.

Every Single Day Amazon gets bigger... and small/medium business go under.

"In the first quarter of 2023, 69 percent of the total wealth in the United States was owned by the top 10 percent of earners. In comparison, the lowest 50 percent of earners only owned 2.4 percent of the total wealth."

https://www.statista.com/statistics/203961/wealth-distribution-for-the-us/

Google "Wealth distribution in America" for more reading.

Masters own Slaves...

Get used to being a Slave.

Spot on.

What’s crazy to me is that many on this forum will complain that McDonald’s workers are overpaid.

As though global conglomerates aren’t flush with cash already. Lord forbid a non-union, non minimum wage, legal US citizen makes over $13 an hour for a low skill job or $20 for a semiskilled job when that’s what the market actually demands and the business is taking in 100’s of millions if not billions in profits annually.

I have zero issue with what you wrote but I do expect and see my investments to grow. The CEO's are working for the investor just as they should be.

Likewise... my money mangers keep me apprised of "special opportunities".

The DOWNSIDE however... is that 4 of the 6 local restaurants here in rural Virginia (on the Bay) are only open 3 days per week... because they can't get help. (People bug out for "city jobs"?)

Sure they could pay Molly $45 an hour to waitress... but then my crab cake platter would be $75, not $25.

We had 3 hardware stores... now we are down to 2... and in 6 months... ONLY one.

This implosion cannot be stopped.

I hear tell land in Idaho is now $10k an acre... Ten years ago it was about a 1/3 of that?

Five acre "lots" up in the woods here (Sandpoint) are at $200k+. Crazy as well is there are at least four new restaurants compared to last summer. A lot of money arrived here over the past few years. Stuff nearby is still selling in days, cash at asking price, at least. One just down the road sold in three days a couple of weeks ago with a cash $1.2M sale.

Do the local kids "born and raised there" have that kind of money?

Or is it the 1/10 of the 1% buying up everything?

i.e. California North?

Chineee.

LOL

Like you know anything about what happens in the west.

You get taken in the ass?

No, though dependent upon the age of the "kid". Yes to the second and yes to the third. Of the latter I have yet to meet a transplant (typically retirees) that was not conservative and left California for that reason. Last summer a family bought those five acres I mention above to get out of California. He is a recently retired corrections officer from Folsom Prison. I kid you not, the first thing he did with his property was install an American flag. Nicest family and a guy I would not want to see angry.

Toot Toot!

BTW...

Speaking of trains... what happened to KSMITH?

Hard copy...

So the average 21 year old in Idaho has $655k to spend on a starter home. Very cool.

It's funny you put it that way. I think about that all the time. Tough being one of the young folks these days. The rats in DC are stealing their futures.

Lots of bullschit here

7+ mortgage rates. And I got beat out on a 23k above asking offer today.

And that's how things will collapse

I do not recall writing that.

The average 21 year old here makes at least $15 an hour but only wants to work 12 hours a week. Crappy rocky ground in Rigby where I live is $100k for a 1 acre lot but only $250k for a 5 acre. Five years ago it was 22k for 1 acre and 50k for 5 but starter jobs were also $8 an hour.

I hear 21 year olds complaining that they'll never be able to afford a home but they'll still vote for Biden. My 22 year old nephew was complaining because he only makes $25 an hour as a pharmacy tech at costco so he can't afford a home. I told him I couldn't afford a home until I was 32 and that was an RN BSN in 2000 I was only making $16.23 an hour and lived in a townhouse with roommates because I couldn't afford my own place. I also worked 2 jobs one full time and one half time and always worked at least 60 hours a week.

I told him you work 60 hours + a week for a few years and see if your finances improved. I then told him how I paid my way through my bachelor's degree making $4.85 an hour driving a semi with double belly dumps hauling sugar beets to the sugar factory in Paul Idaho. I told him how I usually worked 72 hours a week because I didn't want to miss that 7th day because it was time and a half at over $7 an hour.

After that conversation I realized I'm sick of the new generation whining about how they can't afford a home even working 12 hours a week. I couldn't afford one either until I had a masters degree from a first tier MBA program and was working 60+ hours a week.

Bb

Normalcy bias is definitely a thing.

Gets many (most?) in trouble at inflection points.

It is moreover the disparity of the "Haves" and the "Have Nots"... caused by the rats in DC and insider Racketeering.

The "Haves" have 69%+ of the wealth and growing... It will be 90% in short order (couple more years)... see chart previous page.

The "Haves Nots" have 2.4% of the wealth and shrinking... and will represent 66% of the population in short order (couple more years)... see chart previous page.

This is the Socialism that will take over by vote and force in short order (couple more years).

The Trolls on this site argue for their OWN SHACKLES...

I am only a pundit.

----------------------------

Bottomline...

LIFT UP YOUR FELLOW AMERICAN... or watch the entire ship sink.

Right now there is record $ flowing into 5% CDs. Lots of money being parked there. When/if rates drop, that money will be put back into the market which will probably be the boost to get it over 40k.

If it wasn’t for the Fed on a number of Occasions opening up their unique funding mechanism the market would have been considerably Lower..

The Last was saving All those Rich Puss in those 3 Banks in Kommifornia ..

All the Money the Fed Drained during it Unprecedented Hiking Cycle they put back in the system to save the Banking System..

And the Rich Commie Jewelry Store Proprietors .

Oh

The Treasury is Auctioning 1 Trillion in Notes this Quarter ..

Hello Hello is anybody Out There ..

Hahahaha Hahahaha

.....price of a soul these days?

Holy Zombie threads.

This is still the greatest country in the world. Buy good dividend paying stocks and hold them. In the long run you will not lose.

I have been all in on MSFT, GOOG, and AMZN since 1994

The plunge protection team will prevent the bottom falling out.... crazy

And you never miss a chance to brag about it. Probably 17 times in the last year. What a moron.

Question for the sooth sayers who predict the market will crash....

What happens to capital in Europe when the SHTF in Europe ?

Where does it go ?

Correction yup, probably this fall, crash, nfw.

To the 1/10th of the 1%...

Same thing happened with Covid money...

Spent by the masses (slice to the 1%)

Respent by the middles (another slice to the 1%)

Re-Respent by the upper-middles (another slice to the 1%).

"Reparations" would be identical... just faster.

The % of Americans in "The Market" shrinks every year.

"The Market" is a playground for the wealthy and the 1%ers... more so than ever.

In 2021 56% of American adults were invested in the US Stock Markets.

Statistica

Toot Toot!

I am proud of you for owning one share of McDonalds...

Welcome to "The Market"... ya high roller you.

Have yet to see you get anything correct without trying to purposely lead things off the rails with your bullscchitt.

Toot that you dumb twat.

More of your illiterate projections of which you know absolutely nothing.

Par for you.

A 3 bagger.

You’ve done very well.

Toot is wearing fresh panties and feeling frisky...

Toot Toot!

European money will park in the US market.

Not in the bond market either, but in the Dow.

That's where big money plays.

It's the European money that's been buying the Dow on dips. I expect more of the same during the next correction.

In the end, physical assets will rule the day when the sovereign debt market implodes. That includes large industrials, real estate, au, ag, etc....

No government has any intention of paying off their debt....zero. What better way to default, than to start WWIII, and call for Breton Woods II ?

Maybe Lieutenant Dan helped him...

Like Forrest.

She's got her girdle on today, too.

Toot Toot.

We concur on that absolutely.

For the average Joe... HARD COMMODITIES... PHYSICALLY HELD.


I concur.

Big European money will get bigger and bigger... Average European will get the shaft... again.

Without question this was one of the funniest things I have read in awhile. Toot the ultimate parrot of the Campfire loves to fancy herself as a market expert by sharing some incredibly relevant facts on our equity market. I hope all of us can fully grasp what she’s saying here. Good grief.

Baghdad Houston is clueless, period.

It doesn't matter if 1% of adults are in the market.

It's the big money that drives it.

In 1994 I had been losing 20% per year for many years.
I scheduled a meeting with my father who made 20% per year.
Normally there was rivalry between me and my father over who was smarter.
I had to humble myself to change.
My father told me that the stockbrokers were wrong 95% of the time, and it was my responsibility to figure out when they were right.
He said, ~ "You don't buy a stock because it is going up and you don't sell a stock because it is going down."
"You buy a stock because you have a reason, and you don't sell as long as you think the reason is still true."

One of the Koch brothers quoted HIS father as saying ~ "I hope your first deal fails, so you can be humbled."